A lot of pre-draft chatter so far has centered on the Cowboys possibly picking a pass rusher with one of their first two picks in the draft. But you\u2019ve got to wonder whether a first- or second-round pass rusher will be the magic bullet that fixes what\u2019s ailing the Cowboys\u2019 pass rush.<\/p>\n
To answer that question, we need to understand how easy or hard it is for first- and second-round rookie pass rushers to have an immediate impact in their first year in the NFL. Which is why today we\u2019ll look at the 31 pass rushers drafted within the Top 50 picks of the NFL draft over the last five years and figure out what level of performance you can reasonably expect in their rookie seasons.<\/p>\n
We\u2019ll do that by looking at how quickly those 31 draft picks became starters, look at how they were graded by ProFootballFocus.com (PFF), and look at their production in terms of sacks and Pass Rush Win Rate (PRWR). That data is summarized in the table below, some observations and conclusions follow after the table.<\/p>\n
Pass Rusher Performance in Year 1 & 2 (click on grey headers to sort)<\/p>\n
Year
\nRound
\nPick
\nPlayer
\nPOS
\nTeam
\nStarts Year 1
\nStarts Year 2
\n\u00a0
\nGrade Year 1
\nGrade Year 2
\n\u00a0
\nSacks Year 1
\nSacks Year 2
\n\u00a0
\nPRWR Year 1
\nPRWR Year 2<\/p>\n
2021
\n1
\n12
\nMicah Parsons
\nDE
\nDAL
\n16
\n17
\n\u00a0
\n89.7
\n91.8
\n\u00a0
\n13.0
\n13.5
\n\u00a0
\n21.7%
\n19.5%<\/p>\n
2021
\n1
\n18
\nJaelan Phillips
\nDE
\nMIA
\n5
\n15
\n\u00a0
\n53.7
\n88.8
\n\u00a0
\n8.5
\n7.0
\n\u00a0
\n9.7%
\n16.9%<\/p>\n
2021
\n1
\n21
\nKwity Paye
\nDE
\nIND
\n15
\n12
\n\u00a0
\n69.6
\n69.6
\n\u00a0
\n4.0
\n6.0
\n\u00a0
\n12.3%
\n10.7%<\/p>\n
2021
\n1
\n28
\nPayton Turner
\nDE
\nNOR
\n0
\n0
\n\u00a0
\n64.6
\n69.6
\n\u00a0
\n1.0
\n2.0
\n\u00a0
\n13.6%
\n9.8%<\/p>\n
2021
\n1
\n30
\nGregory Rousseau
\nDE
\nBUF
\n17
\n13
\n\u00a0
\n73.1
\n80.9
\n\u00a0
\n4.0
\n8.0
\n\u00a0
\n9.3%
\n16.6%<\/p>\n
2021
\n1
\n31
\nOdafe Oweh
\nDE
\nBAL
\n2
\n6
\n\u00a0
\n67.9
\n60.1
\n\u00a0
\n5.0
\n3.0
\n\u00a0
\n11.5%
\n12.1%<\/p>\n
2022
\n1
\n1
\nTravon Walker
\nDE
\nJAX
\n14
\n17
\n\u00a0
\n58.0
\n53.9
\n\u00a0
\n3.5
\n10.0
\n\u00a0
\n9.9%
\n9.7%<\/p>\n
2022
\n1
\n2
\nAidan Hutchinson
\nDE
\nDET
\n17
\n17
\n\u00a0
\n80.7
\n91.0
\n\u00a0
\n9.5
\n11.5
\n\u00a0
\n12.4%
\n21.3%<\/p>\n
2022
\n1
\n5
\nKayvon Thibodeaux
\nDE
\nNYG
\n14
\n17
\n\u00a0
\n72.5
\n58.4
\n\u00a0
\n4.0
\n11.5
\n\u00a0
\n9.5%
\n6.4%<\/p>\n
2022
\n1
\n30
\nGeorge Karlaftis
\nDE
\nKAN
\n17
\n16
\n\u00a0
\n50.2
\n65.4
\n\u00a0
\n6.0
\n10.0
\n\u00a0
\n8.8%
\n12.7%<\/p>\n
2022
\n2
\n38
\nArnold Ebiketie
\nDE
\nATL
\n1
\n6
\n\u00a0
\n64.5
\n61.4
\n\u00a0
\n2.5
\n6.0
\n\u00a0
\n8.5%
\n11.7%<\/p>\n
2022
\n2
\n40
\nBoye Mafe
\nDE
\nSEA
\n3
\n16
\n\u00a0
\n64.6
\n73.9
\n\u00a0
\n3.0
\n9.0
\n\u00a0
\n6.3%
\n13.1%<\/p>\n
2022
\n2
\n46
\nJosh Paschal
\nDE
\nDET
\n4
\n4
\n\u00a0
\n55.1
\n59.1
\n\u00a0
\n2.0
\n1.0
\n\u00a0
\n8.6%
\n5.8%<\/p>\n
2023
\n1
\n13
\nLukas Van Ness
\nDE
\nGNB
\n0
\n0
\n\u00a0
\n62.3
\n52.9
\n\u00a0
\n4.0
\n3.0
\n\u00a0
\n6.1%
\n9.8%<\/p>\n
2023
\n1
\n15
\nWill McDonald
\nDE
\nNYJ
\n0
\n15
\n\u00a0
\n71.6
\n59.4
\n\u00a0
\n3.0
\n10.5
\n\u00a0
\n16.0%
\n12.0%<\/p>\n
2023
\n1
\n28
\nMyles Murphy
\nDE
\nCIN
\n0
\n0
\n\u00a0
\n58.2
\n56.5
\n\u00a0
\n3.0
\n0.0
\n\u00a0
\n12.7%
\n10.2%<\/p>\n
2023
\n1
\n31
\nFelix Anudike-Uzomah
\nDE
\nKAN
\n0
\n3
\n\u00a0
\n53.4
\n61.2
\n\u00a0
\n0.5
\n2.5
\n\u00a0
\n3.4%
\n10.0%<\/p>\n
2023
\n2
\n37
\nDerick Hall
\nDE
\nSEA
\n0
\n14
\n\u00a0
\n44.4
\n60
\n\u00a0
\n0.0
\n8.0
\n\u00a0
\n7.6%
\n8.5%<\/p>\n
2023
\n2
\n40
\nIsaiah Foskey
\nDE
\nNOR
\n0
\n0
\n\u00a0
\n62.2
\n54.9
\n\u00a0
\n0.0
\n0.0
\n\u00a0
\n4.3%
\n3.0%<\/p>\n
2023
\n2
\n41
\nBJ Ojulari
\nDE
\nARI
\n0
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n64.8
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n4.0
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n13.4%
\n8.4%<\/p>\n
2023
\n2
\n46
\nKeion White
\nDE
\nNWE
\n4
\n13
\n\u00a0
\n64.2
\n68.5
\n\u00a0
\n1.0
\n5.0
\n\u00a0
\n6.2%
\n12.7%<\/p>\n
2024
\n1
\n15
\nLaiatu Latu
\nDE
\nIND
\n1
\n16
\n\u00a0
\n72.1
\n84.1
\n\u00a0
\n4.0
\n8.5
\n\u00a0
\n14.0%
\n15.4%<\/p>\n
2024
\n1
\n19
\nJared Verse
\nDE
\nLAR
\n16
\n17
\n\u00a0
\n89.3
\n80.8
\n\u00a0
\n4.5
\n7.5
\n\u00a0
\n19.6%
\n16.8%<\/p>\n
2024
\n1
\n21
\nChop Robinson
\nDE
\nMIA
\n1
\n3
\n\u00a0
\n70.0
\n54.8
\n\u00a0
\n6.0
\n4.0
\n\u00a0
\n18.8%
\n8.4%<\/p>\n
2025
\n1
\n3
\nAbdul Carter
\nDE
\nNYG
\n6
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n74.7
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n4.0
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n14.7%
\n—<\/p>\n
2025
\n1
\n11
\nMykel Williams
\nDE
\nSFO
\n9
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n53.9
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n1.0
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n8.8%
\n—<\/p>\n
2025
\n1
\n15
\nJalon Walker
\nDE
\nATL
\n9
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n71.6
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n5.5
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n10.6%
\n—<\/p>\n
2025
\n1
\n17
\nShemar Stewart
\nDE
\nCIN
\n5
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n41.2
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n1.0
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n8.1%
\n—<\/p>\n
2025
\n1
\n26
\nJames Pearce
\nDE
\nATL
\n3
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n56.2
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n10.5
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n10.9%
\n—<\/p>\n
2025
\n2
\n44
\nDonovan Ezeiruaku
\nDE
\nDAL
\n9
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n73.1
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n2.0
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n12.6%
\n—<\/p>\n
2025
\n2
\n45
\nJT Tuimoloau
\nDE
\nIND
\n0
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n60.6
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n0.0
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n9.8%
\n—<\/p>\n
When you draft in the Top 50, you expect to draft an immediate starter (nine 0r more starts), you would like the player to achieve a PFF Rating above 70 (everything above 70 is considered \u201cabove average\u201d by PFF), you\u2019d hope for six sacks in the player\u2019s rookie season, and eight sacks in year two, and you\u2019d like to see a Pass Rush Win Rate above 10 in the first year and above 12 in the second year. And that\u2019s exactly how the table is color-coded.<\/p>\n
You\u2019ll notice that Micah Parsons and Donovan Ezeiruaku are highlighted in bold. That\u2019s because Parsons is easily the best edge rusher drafted over the last five years (all eight cells are green, Aiden Hutchinson is the only other player with eight \u201cgreens\u201d), and Donovan Ezeiruaku – you may find this hard to believe – is easily the best pass rusher drafted in the second round: He has three \u201cgreens\u201d, in his rookie season, where all other second rounders have one \u201cgreen\u201d combined.<\/p>\n
Two other players have three \u201cgreens\u201d in their rookie season, Chop Robinson (1.21) and Jared Verse (1.19), and three more have the maximum four rookie-season greens, Jalon Walker (1.15), Micah Parsons (1.12) and Aidan Hutchinson (1.2).<\/p>\n
Observation # 1: You\u2019ve got to be really lucky to draft a Top 50 pass rusher who\u2019ll become an immediate starter.<\/p>\n
If you sort the table by Starts Year 1, only 11 of the 31 picks had more than nine starts in their rookie season, a meager 29% hit rate. And only one of those 11 players (Ezeiruaku) was drafted outside the first round. The hit rate improves to 61% in Year 2 (14 of 23 players).<\/p>\n
But if you want an immediate starter, this table suggests you want to draft him in the Top 12, where the historic hit rate is 83% (5 of 6). Your odds drop to 31% (5 of 16) for the rest of the first round and 11% (1 of 9) in the second round.<\/p>\n
Observation # 2: Rookie pass rushers have a steep learning curve.<\/p>\n
Only 11 out of 31 (35%) pass rushers managed an above average PFF grade in their rookie season. Oddly, that number doesn\u2019t improve but drops to 30% (7 of 23) in year two. If we lower the threshold just marginally from 70 to 68.5, the hit rate improves to 43% (10 of 23). PFF grades are not without their flaws, but we\u2019ll look at them anyway, cognizant of their faults, because they do one thing well: they provide a base from which to compare all NFL players.<\/p>\n
Some of the rookies like James Pearce or Jaelan Philips have below-average grades despite a fairly high sack count, which may seem odd at first. Similarly, players with a relatively low sack count, like Donovan Ezeiruaku, Abdul Carter, or Laiatu Latu received an above-average grade. That\u2019s because the grade encompasses all their rookie snaps, and not just the 5-8 snaps on which they got to the quarterback.<\/p>\n
What the abundance of negative grades suggests is that many rookies struggle to meet the full demands of playing the edge in the NFL. They may be good pass rushers, but often struggle when asked to stop the run, set the edge, or occasionally drop into coverage – all things which are expected of most NFL edge rushers, but which may not have been part of a rookie\u2019s repertoire in college.<\/p>\n
Observation # 3: Patience with a rookie pays off<\/p>\n
We saw above that almost two thirds of all rookies (14 of 23, 61%) in the table above were starters in their second year, whereas only 29% (11\/31) started more than eight games in their rookie seasons. Also, 70% of rookies (16 of 23) improved their sack total in the second year, and 50% of the rookies (12\/24) improved their PRWR in the second year.<\/p>\n
Observation # 4: College production as measured by Pass Rush Win Rate could be indicative of future NFL performance<\/p>\n
We have the college PRWR for all but two of our 31 prospects (Micah Parsons & Myles Murphy), so we can plot how that compares to the NFL PRWR. The data we have is summarized in the table below.<\/p>\n
Player
\nCollege
PRWR
\nYear 1
PRWR
\nYear 2
PRWR
\n\u00a0
\nPlayer
\nCollege
PRWR
\nYear 1
PRWR
\nYear 2
PRWR<\/p>\n
Kwity Paye
\n26.5%
\n12.3%
\n10.7%
\n\u00a0
\nDerick Hall
\n16.9%
\n7.6%
\n8.5%<\/p>\n
Laiatu Latu
\n26.2%
\n14.0%
\n15.4%
\n\u00a0
\nPayton Turner
\n16.8%
\n13.6%
\n9.8%<\/p>\n
Aidan Hutchinson
\n25.4%
\n12.4%
\n21.3%
\n\u00a0
\nFelix Anudike-Uzomah
\n16.0%
\n3.4%
\n10.0%<\/p>\n
George Karlaftis III
\n25.4%
\n8.8%
\n12.7%
\n\u00a0
\nJosh Paschal
\n15.9%
\n8.6%
\n5.8%<\/p>\n
Kayvon Thibodeaux
\n23.5%
\n9.5%
\n6.4%
\n\u00a0
\nWill McDonald
\n15.7%
\n16.0%
\n12.0%<\/p>\n
James Pearce
\n23.0%
\n10.9%
\n—
\n\u00a0
\nIsaiah Foskey
\n15.0%
\n4.3%
\n3.0%<\/p>\n
Abdul Carter
\n22.6%
\n14.7%
\n—
\n\u00a0
\nGregory Rousseau
\n14.6%
\n9.3%
\n16.6%<\/p>\n
Arnold Ebiketie
\n22.2%
\n8.5%
\n11.7%
\n\u00a0
\nShemar Stewart
\n12.4%
\n8.1%
\n—<\/p>\n
Jared Verse
\n21.8%
\n19.6%
\n16.8%
\n\u00a0
\nJT Tuimoloau
\n12.1%
\n9.8%
\n—<\/p>\n
Chop Robinson
\n20.9%
\n18.8%
\n8.4%
\n\u00a0
\nMykel Williams
\n11.1%
\n8.8%
\n—<\/p>\n
Jaelan Phillips
\n20.3%
\n9.7%
\n16.9%
\n\u00a0
\nTravon Walker
\n10.8%
\n9.9%
\n9.7%<\/p>\n
Boye Mafe
\n19.8%
\n6.3%
\n13.1%
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Keion White
\n19.6%
\n6.2%
\n12.7%
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Lukas Van Ness
\n18.8%
\n6.1%
\n9.8%
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Jalon Walker
\n18.5%
\n10.6%
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Odafe Oweh
\n18.4%
\n11.5%
\n12.1%
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Donovan Ezeiruaku
\n18.2%
\n12.6%
\n—
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
BJ Ojulari
\n17.9%
\n13.4%
\n8.4%
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Mathematically, the data points are so disparate that it doesn\u2019t make sense to calculate a correlation. But directionally, the data here is interesting. Incidentally, the average college PRWR first-round picks since 2015 is 17.3%, which is also our separator for the table above, where the edge rusher above that number are shown on the left side of the table, an the players below are shown on the right side of the table.<\/p>\n
61% of the players (11 of 18) above that threshold have a rookie season PRWR above 10%, while only 18% (2 of 11) of players below that threshold achieve that.<\/p>\n
If you look at players that were above 10% NFL PRWR in their rookie season and\/or above 12% in their second NFL year, the players on the left have a hit rate of 83% (15\/18), while the players on the right have a disappointing 27% hit rate (3 of 11).<\/p>\n
As usual, the mandatory caveat that applies to any stat-based assessment: There are a multitude of factors that determine how well a prospect will do in the NFL. College production as measured by PRWR is just one of them.<\/p>\n
Which brings us to the 2026 draft class. Here are the Top 10 edge rushers in this year\u2019s class (ranked per PFF Big board) along with their college PRWR:<\/p>\n
2 – Rueben Bain – 23.5%
4 – David Bailey – 21.6%
15 – Cashius Howell – 19.9%
16 – Keldric Faulk – 11.6%
23 – T.J. Parker – 15.5%
33 – Akheem Mesidor – 20.8%
38 – R Mason Thomas – 20.3%
42 – Gabe Jacas – 14.9%
46 – Zion Young – 17.2%
60 – Derrick Moore – 19.8%<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re the Cowboys, and you\u2019re interested in Keldric Faulk or T.J. Parker in the first round, you\u2019ll want to take a real close look at their college production to understand what you\u2019re getting, because the historical odds are not in their favor.<\/p>\n
What this could mean for the Cowboys<\/p>\n
There is no question that the Cowboys need an infusion of young talent for their defensive line, especially at defensive end. Donovan Ezeiruaku is a youthful 22. But Jadeveon Clowney just turned 33 (and it\u2019s not yet clear the Cowboys will keep him), Dante Fowler will turn 32 this year and is likely gone anyway, and Sam Williams is 27 and about to hit free agency as well. Beyond those four, James Houston (27) provides some depth but is probably not the player you want to bet the 2026 season on.<\/p>\n
So while drafting a pass rusher with either of the top two picks is as close to a must as it gets, it almost certainly won\u2019t be enough to fix the pass rush in 2026, given what we\u2019ve seen from the first-year performance of recent draft classes. Getting more pressure from the defensive end position will require the Cowboys to be active in free agency, or to swing a trade.<\/p>\n
But the Cowboys may not need to mortgage the future for that free agent or for that trade, because what they will be looking for is a bridge player for the next two years as Donovan Ezeiruaku and perhaps another edge rusher drafted in 2026 round into form. Sure, another trade like the one for Charles Haley (37.5 sacks and three Super Bowls for the Cowboys in five years from 1992-96) would be great, but if they just need a guy for the next two years, then another free agent acquisition similar to Jadeveon Clowney in 2025 (8.5 sacks and a leader on defense in 2025) could work just as well.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A lot of pre-draft chatter so far has centered on the Cowboys possibly picking a pass rusher with…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":769137,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2066],"tags":[230,229,257,437,2461,7,6],"class_list":{"0":"post-769136","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-dallas-cowboys","8":"tag-cowboys","9":"tag-dallas","10":"tag-dallas-cowboys","11":"tag-dallas-cowboys-draft","12":"tag-dallascowboys","13":"tag-football","14":"tag-nfl"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116114884353807841","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/769136","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=769136"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/769136\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/769137"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=769136"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=769136"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=769136"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}