{"id":783065,"date":"2026-02-28T21:54:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T21:54:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/783065\/"},"modified":"2026-02-28T21:54:32","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T21:54:32","slug":"evaluating-the-buffalo-bills-2025-roster-qb-te-and-wr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/783065\/","title":{"rendered":"Evaluating the Buffalo Bills\u2019 2025 roster: QB, TE, and WR"},"content":{"rendered":"

During the 2025 season, the Buffalo Bills\u2019 passing game served as a complement to the offense\u2019s dominant ground attack, with the team ranking 11th in passing yards (3,668 total) and tying for ninth in passing touchdowns (25) while averaging 216.6 passing yards per game. A look at advanced metrics reinforces a solid but not elite unit: 11th in passing DVOA (25.3%), seventh in EPA per dropback (0.09), and a 69.5% completion rate (sixth).<\/p>\n

The group posted an 87.7 Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving efficiency rating (eighth-best), but lacked explosiveness, ranking 29th in yards per catch (11.6) as a team. Yet, in the playoffs \u2014 a 27-24 Wild Card win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, followed by a 33-30 overtime Divisional Round loss to the Denver Broncos \u2014 the pass catchers stepped up in spots, with 636 passing yards across two games. However, there were far too many drops and turnovers that proved costly.<\/p>\n

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As the second in a series evaluating the Bills\u2019 offense for a potential 2026 Super Bowl run, we\u2019ll apply what I\u2019ve termed as the \u201cLofton Exercise\u201d to categorize players as \u201cgame-winners\u201d (elite talents who can single-handedly win multiple games), \u201cwin-with players\u201d (reliable contributors who perform well but aren\u2019t consistent difference-makers), or \u201cneeds improvement\u201d (inconsistent or underdeveloped). After addressing the offensive line and running backs, I continue with a look at Buffalo\u2019s quarterbacks and pass catchers (wide receivers and tight ends), both those under contract and pending free agents.<\/p>\n

Without further ado, incorporating 2025 stats, postseason performances, and advanced metrics like PFF grades, expected points added (EPA), success rates, and others to build my case, here are my rankings:<\/p>\n

Game-Winners<\/p>\n

These players stood out as elite talents capable of dominating matchups and carrying the unit in critical moments. Their performances were crucial for the Bills\u2019 success.<\/p>\n

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QB Josh Allen\"\"<\/p>\n

Despite playing through injuries and with a very questionable group of wide receivers, Josh Allen remained the franchise cornerstone and one of the league\u2019s best (3rd in MVP voting) in 2025, throwing for 3,668 yards (11th in the league), 25 passing touchdowns (tied for ninth), and 10 interceptions, posting a 102.2 passer rating (seventh) and 65.4 QBR. His advanced metrics were elite: a PFF passing grade of 87.4 (sixth among QBs), 0.09 EPA per dropback (seventh), a 7.0% big-time throw rate (top-five), and a low 2.6% turnover-worthy play rate. Allen also added 579 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns, leading all quarterbacks in rushing scores.<\/p>\n

In the playoffs, Allen threw for 556 yards, four passing touchdowns, and two interceptions across two games, including 283 yards and three scores in the loss against the Denver Broncos. His dual-threat ability earned him a Pro Bowl selection and MVP votes, in what looked like a down season for him.<\/p>\n

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Allen\u2019s a true game-winner who can exploit defenses through the air and on the ground, as evidenced by his 177 first downs passing and 42 explosive plays (20+ yards). Turnovers in key spots (four vs. the Broncos) weren\u2019t good, but if he\u2019s not asked to do so much, almost by himself, all the time, with some better play around him, there\u2019s no reason to believe Allen can\u2019t keep his turnovers down when it matters most. He has certainly done enough to, by now, have at least made it to one Super Bowl in his career.<\/p>\n

TE Dalton Kincaid*\"\"<\/p>\n

Dalton Kincaid emerged as a mismatch weapon despite injuries, hauling in 39 receptions for 571 yards (14.6 average) and five touchdowns. His advanced metrics were strong: a PFF receiving grade of 81.9 (third among TEs), 2.7 yards per route run (first), and 0.15 EPA per target (top 5). Kincaid\u2019s 79.6% catch rate and 47.6 yards per game when healthy speak to his dependability.<\/p>\n

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In the playoffs, Kincaid caught nine passes (11 targets) for 111 yards and two scores. Despite a torn PCL limiting him to 12 games, Kincaid earned a Pro Bowl alternate spot. The former first-round pick has established himself as a game-winner with seam-stretching ability. He was a primary target for quarterback Josh Allen, and his 2025 season showed he can be one of the most productive tight ends in the league when healthy.<\/p>\n

This \u201cwhen healthy\u201d part, though, is what makes me put an asterisk next to his name when thinking about him as a game-winner \u2014 after all, \u201cthe best ability is availability.\u201d<\/p>\n

Win-With Players<\/p>\n

This group provided reliable, complementary production without consistently dominating. Their stats and metrics show solid contributions that help the team win, but which don\u2019t carry games alone.<\/p>\n

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WR Khalil Shakir\"\"<\/p>\n

Khalil Shakir led the receivers with 72 receptions on 95 targets for 719 yards and four touchdowns. His advanced metrics included a PFF receiving grade of 70.5 (43rd out of 81 qualifying WRs), 1.69 yards per route run, and 7.5 yards after catch per reception (second in the NFL). Shakir\u2019s 75.8% catch rate and low 4.8% drop rate underscored his dependability in the short passing game. He led the NFL with 173 yards of screen passes. In the playoffs, Shakir had 19 receptions (21 targets) for 157 yards.<\/p>\n

I love Shakir and believe he still can be even more productive if used a little bit more downfield. However, with the role he\u2019s had under Joe Brady, Shakir is a win-with slot specialist: consistent in the quick game but not a dominant outside threat.<\/p>\n

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The team still needs Kincaid inside and at least one better downfield threat who can win one-on-ones outside to complement number 10. Shakir can\u2019t carry the burden and be a game-changer in the passing game by himself.<\/p>\n

TE Dawson Knox\"\"<\/p>\n

Dawson Knox\u2019s blend of receiving efficiency and in-line blocking value still strengthens Buffalo\u2019s offense, and he complements Kincaid well. In 2025, Knox caught 36 passes for 417 yards and four touchdowns, converting at a 73% catch rate and averaging 11.6 yards per reception \u2014 those are numbers that highlight his reliability as a secondary target. His PFF overall grade of 68.6 ranked him 17th among tight ends, showing he remains a steady contributor in a position group where your top option hasn\u2019t been available all the time. In the playoffs, Knox added six catches for 62 yards.<\/p>\n

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Beyond receiving, Knox\u2019s ability to line up in-line and function as a blocker adds tactical flexibility. While he didn\u2019t log enough snaps to earn a formal run-blocking grade, Knox\u2019s usage in heavy sets and play-action packages demonstrates his value in helping Buffalo disguise looks and maintain balance.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s not worth his $17.868 million cap number, but I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if a renegotiation \u2014 maybe even including an extension \u2014 keeps the veteran with One Bills Drive for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

WR Brandin Cooks\"\"<\/p>\n

Brandin Cooks, acquired midseason, had 24 receptions for 279 yards (11.6 average) and no touchdowns in 15 games (10 with New Orleans and five with Buffalo). His PFF overall grade was 57.4, with an average depth of target of 14.7, and a passer rating when targeted of 92.4. Despite the quiet regular season, in the playoffs, Cooks became one of Josh Allen\u2019s go-to targets, with five catches for 78 yards as someone constantly threatening defenses deep.<\/p>\n

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At this stage of Cooks\u2019 career, if he comes back to Buffalo in the same role as one of the top three receivers, he should be listed among the \u201cneed better\u201d group. Now, if he comes back affordably as the team\u2019s WR4 option, as a guy who can rotate in and stretch the field, plus being an awesome role model for young receivers as a pro, he deserves to be in the \u201cwin with\u201d group.<\/p>\n

WR Tyrell Shavers\"\"<\/p>\n

Tyrell Shavers saw increased snaps due to injuries and inefficiency in the wide receivers room, recording 15 receptions for 245 yards (16.3 average) and one touchdown. His PFF overall grade was 72.1, with strong marks in run-blocking (78.4 grade, top-15 among WRs) and a 62.9% catch rate. Shavers forced 0.18 missed tackles per reception and led Bills wide receivers with a 2.1 in EPA per reception.<\/p>\n

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Time and again, Shavers showed that he deserved more looks, but has never truly received them. In the playoffs, Shavers had one catch for 14 yards before tearing his ACL and missing Buffalo\u2019s last game.<\/p>\n

Shavers\u2019 combination of blocking prowess and opportunistic pass-catching, plus a feeling like there\u2019s some untapped potential there, makes him a win-with depth player with special teams value.<\/p>\n

TE Jackson Hawes\"\"<\/p>\n

Jackson Hawes\u00a0performed exceptionally well as a fifth-round rookie in 2025, largely operating as an elite blocking tight end and earning \u201csecret superstar\u201d status from\u00a0PFF. He was recognized as one of the highest-graded rookies and tight ends in the league, specifically in terms of run (74.2 grade, third best among NFL tight ends) and pass (78.1 grade, eighth among NFL tight ends) blocking. His 83.1 overall PFF rating ranked second among all 2025 rookies and second on the Bills\u2019 offense (behind only Josh Allen).<\/p>\n

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Hawes didn\u2019t excel just at blocking, though. When his number was called in the passing game, he delivered, finishing the season with 16 receptions for 187 yards and three scores. His 84.2% catch rate and the 147.3 passer rating when targeted were impressive, even with a small sample size.<\/p>\n

Hawes is still a developmental piece as the total package at the position, but in his role as the TE3, with good potential to become an excellent TE2, he\u2019s a player the Bills can win with.<\/p>\n

QB Mitchell Trubisky (UFA)\"\"<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not a big Trubisky fan and wouldn\u2019t lose any sleep if he doesn\u2019t come back during next month\u2019s free agency. With that said, its hard to argue about the job he\u2019s done as backup quarterback to Josh Allen. Trubisky was reliable and highly effective this past season, maintaining high efficiency without throwing an interception, as shown by his 137.0 passer rating.<\/p>\n

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In four appearances, Trubisky threw for 313 yards and four touchdowns. He earned a\u00a076.2 PFF grade\u00a0for his performance against the New York Jets in Week 18, his only extended playing opportunity. As long as Allen\u2019s healthy and Trubisky isn\u2019t asked to come in and win games, he\u2019s fine as a backup option.<\/p>\n

Needs Improvement<\/p>\n

These players lacked consistency, often due to limited snaps, inexperience, or simply not being talented enough, even if some of them showed potential at some point. At this point in time, each of them requires more development for possible bigger roles.<\/p>\n

WR Keon Coleman\"\"<\/p>\n

In his sophomore season, Keon Coleman underperformed relative to breakout expectations, totaling\u00a038 receptions for 404 yards and four touchdowns across 13 games. Instead of that breakout, he suffered through notable inconsistencies and disciplinary issues, resulting in healthy scratches and lost opportunities.<\/p>\n

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With other injuries opening the door for his comeback, Coleman played meaningful snaps in the playoffs, catching two of four targets for 46 yards and one touchdown, but dropping another one, in the end zone, against the Broncos.<\/p>\n

Long story short, Coleman hasn\u2019t earned the role and playing time he was given upon entering the league. The potential is still there, but there are no excuses for missing meetings and poor professionalism. This is the kind of stuff that makes people lose respect for a public person; it\u2019s hard to rely on a player who can\u2019t even be on time during preparation. Time will tell if he has what it takes to earn the respect of his teammates and coaches \u2014 and his playing time back.<\/p>\n

WR Joshua Palmer<\/p>\n

I hated it when this signing was made, and it seems I was right about this one.<\/p>\n

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After signing with Buffalo, Joshua Palmer was expected to be a key part of their passing attack, but struggled to find consistent chemistry and production, particularly after Week 1. Despite a solid 5-catch, 61-yard opening game, he only managed 17 more catches for 242 yards over his remaining 11 games.<\/p>\n

I saw him as an average-level player being signed for a bigger role during the 2025 free-agency period, and the truth is that he couldn\u2019t deliver. His 58.4 PFF grade ranked among the lowest-graded Bills offensive players in 2025, and his 2.5 yards after catch per reception and a 63.2 passer rating when targeted show that if he\u2019s one of a team\u2019s top three wide receivers, their WR2 and WR3 must be awesome. That\u2019s not the case in Buffalo.<\/p>\n

WR Curtis Samuel<\/p>\n

Samuel struggled to stay healthy (again), often playing fewer than 20 offensive snaps in games during the regular season, serving as a deep reserve or 4th\/5th option rather than a primary playmaker. He finished the year with seven catches for 81 yards and one score.<\/p>\n

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With the possibility of saving roughly $6.1 million in cap space by cutting ties with Samuel this offseason, I can\u2019t see how he\u2019s kept as part of the team going forward.<\/p>\n

WR Gabe Davis<\/p>\n

Coming back from an injury-plagued 2024 season and in a limited role, Davis was utilized in a different capacity than his early Buffalo years, showing a lower ADOT (9.6) than in 2023 (15.1), suggesting more intermediate work. His best performance of the 2025 season came against the Jets in Week 18, where he recorded five catches for 41 yards and a touchdown.<\/p>\n

Davis ended up on Injured Reserve yet again after suffering another gruesome knee injury, and it\u2019s likely he won\u2019t be back anytime soon. He can\u2019t be counted as more than an end-of-roster, reliable wide receiver who can block at this point.<\/p>\n

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WR Mecole Hardman Jr.<\/p>\n

Another frustrating try to help a lackluster wide receivers room. Hardman signed with the Bills\u2019 practice squad in November 2025 and was briefly elevated to the active roster, where he failed to secure his only target in two games and had one fumble, before getting hurt.<\/p>\n

He was back for the AFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Broncos, where he scored a touchdown on a four-yard catch, but dropped his only other target during an important, possibly game-winning, drive late in the fourth quarter. He also had some opportunities returning punts, but couldn\u2019t make any impact there as well.<\/p>\n

Final Assessment<\/p>\n

With Josh Allen as the only surefire \u201cGame-Winner\u201d on the list, General Manager Brandon Beane has to find ways to add at least one more player who can win games for the Bills in this group. Having Kincaid healthy for an entire year should help a lot, and Shakir\u2019s contributions can be counted on, but it\u2019s a group with no margin for error, often asking Allen to play near perfection (see the Wild Card game versus the Jaguars) to be able to beat the best teams in the league.<\/p>\n

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The lack of play makers who can create separation and make life easier for Allen \u2014 knowing (sometimes pre-snap) he has some advantageous matchups he can exploit without the need to hold the ball forever and scan the entire field, so somebody can finally get free (sometimes) \u2014 hurt the passing offense severely in 2025. Adding one difference maker should help Allen tremendously and make it easier for some of those other players to succeed in smaller roles.<\/p>\n

Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of\u00a0Leading the Charge!<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"During the 2025 season, the Buffalo Bills\u2019 passing game served as a complement to the offense\u2019s dominant ground…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":783066,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2048],"tags":[215,9266,214,53,2086,306,1714,3629,3029,258,28128,7,3024,125,872,599,8100,7468,451,12568,896,255,6,19010,23220,9081,37369],"class_list":["post-783065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-buffalo-bills","tag-bills","tag-brandin-cooks","tag-buffalo","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-buffalobills","tag-curtis-samuel","tag-dalton-kincaid","tag-davis","tag-dawson-knox","tag-denver-broncos","tag-epa","tag-football","tag-jackson-hawes","tag-jacksonville-jaguars","tag-josh-allen","tag-joshua-palmer","tag-keon-coleman","tag-khalil-shakir","tag-mecole-hardman","tag-mitchell-trubisky","tag-new-orleans","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nfl","tag-passer-rating","tag-passing-touchdowns","tag-passing-yards","tag-tyrell-shavers"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116150488460866424","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/783065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=783065"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/783065\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/783066"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=783065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=783065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=783065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}