{"id":81383,"date":"2025-05-26T23:33:27","date_gmt":"2025-05-26T23:33:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/81383\/"},"modified":"2025-05-26T23:33:27","modified_gmt":"2025-05-26T23:33:27","slug":"5-fantasy-football-busts-overvalued-draft-avoids-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/81383\/","title":{"rendered":"5 Fantasy Football Busts: Overvalued Draft Avoids (2025)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Rashee<\/p>\n

Frank Ammirante’s overvalued players for 2025 fantasy football leagues. His fantasy football draft avoids and potential busts, including Rashee Rice, Rome Odunze, and more.<\/p>\n

The 2025 NFL season will be here before you know it, so it’s time to dive into the player pool to find out which players to avoid. We’ll look at fantasy football average draft position (ADP) to find out which players are overvalued for 2025 redraft leagues. This doesn’t mean that you should ignore these players, but simply to avoid them at their current costs.<\/p>\n

On this page, we’ll dive into Underdog ADP as of May 21st, since this is one of the most active platforms where hundreds of drafts are happening right now.<\/p>\n

Keep reading to learn why I view Rashee Rice<\/a>, Courtland Sutton<\/a>, Rome Odunze<\/a>, Aaron Jones<\/a>, and Patrick Mahomes<\/a> as my top five overvalued players in 2025 fantasy football.<\/p>\n

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings<\/a> for 2025:<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Rashee Rice – WR, Kansas City Chiefs
\nUnderdog ADP: 29.7 (WR18)<\/p>\n

Rice has produced at a high level in each of his two seasons in the NFL:<\/p>\n

16 G, 79 REC, 938 YDS, 7 TD
\n4 G, 24 REC, 288 YDS, 2 TD<\/p>\n

This is a player who put up 43 catches for 515 yards in the final six games of his rookie season. Rice followed that up by averaging 72.0 yards per game in his second year before it was cut short by a season-ending knee injury.<\/p>\n

The reason why I view Rice as overvalued has nothing to do with his talent and everything to do with his health. The third-year wideout is coming off a torn LCL. While he’s expected to make a full recovery, there’s not much of a discount on his price at WR18 and 29.7 overall.<\/p>\n

The other risk is that this is a crowded WR room, highlighted by second-year wideout Xavier Worthy<\/a>, who was taken in the first round last year and finished the season with 679 yards and six touchdowns in his last 10 games. Veteran Marquise Brown<\/a> also remains on the team.<\/p>\n

What if Worthy has become the top wideout on this team during Rice’s lengthy absence? Could Brown factor in more now that he’s fully healthy? These are legitimate concerns to consider when deciding whether to draft Rice.<\/p>\n

I didn’t even mention the suspension risk, yet. Remember that Rice is still facing multiple felony charges for a high-speed car crash he was involved in last year. Yes, it’s unlikely that he misses some games, but this is another lingering factor that adds risk to his profile.<\/p>\n

Other players available at Rice’s ADP include Chase Brown<\/a>, Davante Adams<\/a>, and Josh Allen<\/a>. This is a high opportunity cost that makes Rice a player to avoid at his current cost.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Courtland Sutton – WR, Denver Broncos
\nUnderdog ADP: 47.0 (WR26)<\/p>\n

Sutton is coming off a solid season in which he caught 81 of 135 targets for 1,081 yards and eight touchdowns. But when you look at his career track record, you feel like his current WR26 cost is too rich.<\/p>\n

2018: 7.2 PPG (WR64)
\n2019: 11.7 PPG (WR27)
\n2020: 8.1 PPG (WR59)
\n2021: 7.1 PPG (WR67)
\n2022: 8.5 PPG (WR44)
\n2023: 10.0 PPG (WR36)
\n2024: 11.8 PPG (WR23)<\/p>\n

Yes, Sutton has played with underwhelming quarterbacks and now has a potential stud in Bo Nix<\/a>, but do you really want to pay a WR26 price for a 30-year-old with a career-best WR23 in fantasy PPG?<\/p>\n

You also have to acknowledge that Evan Engram<\/a> — a tight end who functions as an underneath target — can take away looks. There’s also Marvin Mims Jr.<\/a>, who came on strong in the second half, while Troy Franklin<\/a> enters his second season after making some splash plays last year. The Broncos also selected wideout Pat Bryant<\/a> in the third round.<\/p>\n

Head coach Sean Payton has his stud running back after\u00a0the Broncos took\u00a0RJ Harvey<\/a> in the second round. Now that Harvey has replaced Javonte Williams<\/a> as the lead back, the Broncos could try to run the ball a bit more, at least more effectively.<\/p>\n

In summary, Sutton is a low-end WR2 at best, which was nice when he was priced as a WR4 or WR5 like last year. But when he’s priced at his ceiling, like we see this season, it’s time to avoid him.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Rome Odunze – WR, Chicago Bears
\nUnderdog ADP: 63.3 (WR34)<\/p>\n

According to Stathead, since 2000, there have been 15 rookie WRs drafted in the top 10 to put up <750 YDS, <45 YDS\/G, and <5 TD in their first seasons.<\/p>\n

Not good company for Rome Odunze: pic.twitter.com\/lbKDL0xp3D<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) May 21, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Odunze had an underwhelming rookie season, catching 54-of-101 targets for 734 yards and three touchdowns. Part of the blame for this production was poor coaching from former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, along with a porous offensive line.<\/p>\n

Now with one of the best play-callers in football in Ben Johnson as well as a much-improved offensive line, the hope is that Odunze is headed for a breakout year.<\/p>\n

But I’m not sure there’s enough of a discount on Odunze with how disappointing his rookie year was. What if this is a player who isn’t as good as we thought?<\/p>\n

The Bears used two top-40 picks\u2014including one in the top 10\u2014on pass-catchers, tight end\u00a0Colston Loveland<\/a>\u00a0and wideout\u00a0Luther Burden III<\/a>. There’s a risk that the team prioritized more weapons because it wasn’t confident in what it\u00a0already had.<\/p>\n

Even if that’s not the case, it’s still a crowded group of pass-catchers that also includes DJ Moore<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Don’t get me wrong, Odunze is a player with a lot of potential and a vastly improved team context. But the price looks a bit too expensive. I prefer more proven players like Chris Olave<\/a> at Odunze’s current ADP.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Patrick Mahomes – QB, Kansas City Chiefs
\nUnderdog ADP: 83.5 (QB6)<\/p>\n

Mahomes is another overvalued player who is being priced on what he used to be, not what he’s shown in the last two seasons. The superstar quarterback has finished as QB11 in fantasy PPG in each of the last two seasons.<\/p>\n

Despite this, his current cost sits at QB6 in Underdog drafts.<\/p>\n

The bull case on Mahomes is that this is still an elite quarterback who can still put up gaudy numbers, especially with a healthy group of pass-catchers.<\/p>\n

But the Chiefs have shown that they’re content with just playing a conservative, ball-control style on offense while relying on their defense.<\/p>\n

There’s no reason to believe their defense will decline, as stud coordinator Steve Spagnuolo remains. In other words, it’s unlikely that they’ll be forced into shootouts.<\/p>\n

I’d rather wait on quarterbacks, targeting passers like Dak Prescott<\/a> and Trevor Lawrence<\/a> several picks later. Each of these QBs have improvements in team context, making them better values than Mahomes right now.<\/p>\n

As with teammate Rice, there’s not enough of a discount on Mahomes here.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Aaron Jones – RB, Minnesota Vikings
\nUnderdog ADP: 83.2 (RB28)<\/p>\n

Jordan Mason<\/a> could end up as the primary early-down RB in Minnesota, despite Aaron Jones’ presence.<\/p>\n

Mason was one of the best tackle-breaking RBs in 2024. Among 36 RBs w\/ 125+ rushes, he was 2nd in yards after contact\/att (3.07) and 5th in missed tackles forced\/att (0.22) \ud83e\uddf5 pic.twitter.com\/zRkZleAIrc<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Dataroma (@ffdataroma) March 16, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

The last overvalued player on this list is Jones, who is now entering his age-31 season. This is a player who averaged 12.7 PPG last year (RB20), but with his advanced age, it’s hard to take the plunge once again.<\/p>\n

Additionally, the Vikings traded for Jordan Mason this offseason. The former 49ers running back did a great job filling in for Christian McCaffrey<\/a> last season, putting up 789 yards and three touchdowns on 5.2 YPC.<\/p>\n

Head coach Kevin O’Connell likely plans to use a committee with Jones and Mason this year.<\/p>\n

There’s no reason for the Vikings to give Jones too much of a workload, given their newly acquired depth at the position. You could even argue that there’s an outside chance that Mason leads this team in touches.<\/p>\n

Considering that, I’d rather take a shot on players like D’Andre Swift<\/a> (more projected volume) at Jones’ current cost.<\/p>\n

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