the first round<\/a>, so neither do we. As per tradition, please enjoy Slingshot\u2019s upset odds for every potential second-round game with at least a five-seed difference. We\u2019ve added a few notes from Slingshot\u2019s similar-games database for matchups that triggered interesting results.<\/p>\nSecond-round matchups impacted by First Four results will be added the morning after each game.<\/p>\n
East Region<\/p>\n
Potential MatchupUpset Chance<\/p>\n
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 8 Ohio State<\/p>\n
15.6%<\/p>\n
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 9 TCU<\/p>\n
10.1%<\/p>\n
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 16 Siena<\/p>\n
14.4%<\/p>\n
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 16 Siena<\/p>\n
11.6%<\/p>\n
No. 5 St. John\u2019s vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist<\/p>\n
8.4%<\/p>\n
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa*<\/p>\n
33.3%<\/p>\n
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 11 South Florida**<\/p>\n
34.2%<\/p>\n
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 14 North Dakota State<\/p>\n
12.2%<\/p>\n
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 7 UCLA<\/p>\n
23.4%<\/p>\n
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 10 UCF<\/p>\n
24.8%<\/p>\n
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 15 Furman<\/p>\n
12.5%<\/p>\n
No. 10 UCF vs. No. 15 Furman<\/p>\n
12%<\/p>\n
* 3 of 8 most similar matchups ended in upsets; ** 4 of 10 most similar matchups ended in upsets<\/p>\n
South Region<\/p>\n
Potential Matchup<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Upset Chance<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 8 Clemson<\/p>\n
17.4%<\/p>\n
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 9 Iowa<\/p>\n
18.6%<\/p>\n
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 16 Lehigh<\/p>\n
18.5%<\/p>\n
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 16 Prairie View<\/p>\n
4.3%<\/p>\n
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 16 Lehigh<\/p>\n
14.4%<\/p>\n
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 16 Prairie View<\/p>\n
9.7%<\/p>\n
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Troy<\/p>\n
18.3%<\/p>\n
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 12 McNeese*<\/p>\n
34.9%<\/p>\n
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 11 VCU**<\/p>\n
25.8%<\/p>\n
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 14 Penn<\/p>\n
17.4%<\/p>\n
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 7 Saint Mary\u2019s<\/p>\n
22.7%<\/p>\n
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 10 Texas A&M<\/p>\n
21.2%<\/p>\n
No. 7 Saint Mary\u2019s vs. No. 15 Idaho<\/p>\n
8.9%<\/p>\n
No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 15 Idaho<\/p>\n
18.5%<\/p>\n
* 3 of 9 most similar matchups ended in upsets; ** 3 of 8 most similar matchups ended in upsets<\/p>\n
Midwest Region<\/p>\n
Potential Matchup<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Upset Chance<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 8 Georgia<\/p>\n
10.3%<\/p>\n
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 9 Saint Louis<\/p>\n
9.9%<\/p>\n
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 16 UMBC<\/p>\n
7.3%<\/p>\n
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 16 Howard<\/p>\n
17.3%<\/p>\n
No. 9 Saint Louis vs. No. 16 UMBC<\/p>\n
19%<\/p>\n
No. 9 Saint Louis vs. No. 16 Howard<\/p>\n
10.5%<\/p>\n
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 12 Akron<\/p>\n
20%<\/p>\n
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Hofstra<\/p>\n
17.3%<\/p>\n
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 11 Miami (OH)<\/p>\n
6.8%<\/p>\n
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 11 SMU<\/p>\n
28.6%<\/p>\n
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Wright State<\/p>\n
9.6%<\/p>\n
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 7 Kentucky*<\/p>\n
6.5%<\/p>\n
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 10 Santa Clara**<\/p>\n
7.4%<\/p>\n
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Tennessee State<\/p>\n
6.5%<\/p>\n
No. 10 Santa Clara vs. No. 15 Tennessee State<\/p>\n
7.3%<\/p>\n
* Only 1 of the 10 most similar matchups ended in upsets; none of the 10 most similar matchups ended in upsets<\/p>\n
West Region<\/p>\n
Potential Matchup<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Upset Chance<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 8 Villanova<\/p>\n
13.3%<\/p>\n
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 9 Utah State<\/p>\n
19.7%<\/p>\n
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 16 LIU<\/p>\n
13%<\/p>\n
No. 9 Utah State vs. No. 16 LIU<\/p>\n
10%<\/p>\n
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 12 High Point<\/p>\n
30.8%<\/p>\n
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 Hawaii<\/p>\n
20%<\/p>\n
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 Texas<\/p>\n
22.5%<\/p>\n
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 NC State<\/p>\n
19.9%<\/p>\n
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State<\/p>\n
9.7%<\/p>\n
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 7 Miami (FL)<\/p>\n
17%<\/p>\n
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 10 Missouri<\/p>\n
16.6%<\/p>\n
No. 7 Miami (FL) vs. No. 15 Queens<\/p>\n
7.6%<\/p>\n
No. 10 Missouri vs. No. 15 Queens<\/p>\n
18.5%<\/p>\n
![](\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iNiIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxMCIgdmlld0JveD0iMCAwIDI0IDI0IiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPgo8cGF0aCBkPSJNMjQgMS45NTU1OUwxMC41MjQ3IDIxTDAgMTMuMjczTDEuOTYwMzEgMTAuNTUyTDkuNzY2NDggMTYuMjgzMUwyMS4yODc5IDBMMjQgMS45NTU1OVoiIGZpbGw9IiMwMDAwMDAiPjwvcGF0aD4KPC9zdmc+Cg==\")
![\"Connections:](\"data:image\/png;base64,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\")
<\/p>\n
Mar 18, 2026<\/p>\n
Connections: Sports Edition<\/p>\n
Spot the pattern. Connect the terms<\/p>\n
Find the hidden link between sports terms<\/p>\n
Play today’s puzzle<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"McNeese has the best odds of any double-digit seed to advance to the Sweet 16, per the Bracket…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":818285,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[7,5480,49,48,5433],"class_list":{"0":"post-818284","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-football","8":"tag-football","9":"tag-mens-college-basketball","10":"tag-ncaa","11":"tag-ncaa-football","12":"tag-sports-betting"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116247786162784673","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/818284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=818284"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/818284\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/818285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=818284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=818284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=818284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"McNeese's](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/USATSI_27901151-1024x683.jpg\")
<\/p>\n