{"id":819219,"date":"2026-03-18T14:17:17","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T14:17:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/819219\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T14:17:17","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T14:17:17","slug":"jaylen-waddle-statistical-analysis-after-denver-broncos-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/819219\/","title":{"rendered":"Jaylen Waddle statistical analysis after Denver Broncos trade"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Denver Broncos traded for an elite wide receiver<\/a>, Jaylen Waddle, in their biggest move of the offseason. Waddle was taken with the 6th overall pick in the 2021 draft. The Miami Dolphins got him via a trade that eventually got the Dallas Cowboys Micah Parsons:<\/p>\n

Traded by Eagles<\/a> as 2021 1st round pick (6th overall) with 2021 5th round pick (156th overall subsequently traded, Isaiahh Loudermilk<\/a>) to Dolphins<\/a> for 2021 1st round pick (12th overall subsequently traded, Micah Parsons<\/a>), 2021 4th round pick (123rd overall, Zech McPhearson<\/a>) and 2022 1st round pick (15th overall subsequently traded, Kenyon Green<\/a>)<\/p>\n

The Broncos would draft Waddle\u2019s friend and teammate, Patrick Surtain, three picks later in that draft. The top 10 picks in that draft have almost all turned into great NFL players – amassing a combined 15 Pro Bowl selections and seven first team All-Pro selections (none from Waddle). Neither Waddle, nor his other former teammate, DeVonta Smith have earned any post-season honors. The other two of those top 10 draftees that haven\u2019t made Pro Bowl are Zach Wilson and Trey Lance, both of whom were colossal busts.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.pro-football-reference.com\/years\/2021\/draft.htm<\/p>\n

Waddle has played 611 offensive snaps or more every season he has been in the league with his minimum coming in 2023. He has averaged 763 offensive snaps per season, 119 targets, 81 catches, 1098 rec yds, 6 TDs, 55 1Ds, 68.6% catch rate, 57.2% success rate, and 7 drops.<\/p>\n

The only thing that bothers me is his salary, which will balloon in 2027, and his drops. He will turned 28 next season, but the age wall for WRs is 31 so he still has some good seasons left in him.<\/p>\n

My best friend from college who is a life-long Dolphin fan, says that he is not a #1 WR, but I think he has the skills to be a #1. He certainly played like a #1 in 2022 when he led the league in yards per catch at 18.1 and had 1356 receiving yards. His career Yds\/Rec value of 13.5 is 17th among active players. After his rookie season when he only averaged 9.8 yds\/catch, he has averaged 12.8 or better every season. The only Bronco with better than 12.8 last season was Sutton with 13.7.<\/p>\n

He also average 6.8 YAC\/rec that season which would have been near the top of the league this season (Rashee Rice led the league at 8.2). Marvin Mims led the Broncos in 2025 at 6.5. Waddle is dynamic and can create YAC by his ability to make defenders miss and his ability to accelerate quickly after a cut.<\/p>\n

I think he will be treated by opposing defenses next season as the Broncos #1 WR, which should make things easier for the other WRs on the team, particularly Courtland Sutton. Waddle also has been great at finding holes in zone coverage during his career, something that none of the Bronco WRs excelled at last season.<\/p>\n

In terms of cushion and separation last season Waddle was nothing special, he got 6.2 yards of cushion on average and gained 2.7 yards of separation. His targetted air yards of 12.3 was in the top half of WRs last season.<\/p>\n

Where Waddle excelled in 2023 was in EPA\/route. His 0.20 value was one of the best in the league and the guys above him were all elite (maybe with the exception of Christian Watson and Jahdae Walker).<\/p>\n

Waddle ran 415 routes on his 724 offensive snaps last season which means that he was on the field for 309 designed run plays (excluding RPOs). I don\u2019t know if he is a plus run blocker, but WR run blocking stats are not kept anywhere and while I could compile the data from NFLGSIS.com for the Dolphins, that data was not all that informative for the 2025 Broncos, so I doubt it would be that useful for the 2025 Phins. Waddle is only 5-10, 185 lbs, but that doesn\u2019t mean he can\u2019t be an effective run blocker.<\/p>\n

According to SISdatahub.com Tua Tagovailoa was one of the worst deep ball QBs in the NFL in 2025 with a deep passer rating of 62 (IQR). Tua also had a fairly low percentage of his throws (12%) that were considered deep throws. Compare that to Bo Nix who had 18% of his throws as deep passes (70 attempts) and had a rating of 88 on those. Jaylen is moving to a QB who should be able to make much better use of his deep ball tracking\/catching abilities.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

According to SIS, only MVP Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence had more deep attempts last season than Bo Nix.<\/p>\n

The addition of Waddle should make the Bronco passing offense much more effective in 2026 than it was in 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Denver Broncos traded for an elite wide receiver, Jaylen Waddle, in their biggest move of the offseason.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":819220,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2062],"tags":[232,231,258,88579,23875,2426,7,6],"class_list":["post-819219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-denver-broncos","tag-broncos","tag-denver","tag-denver-broncos","tag-denver-broncos-analysis","tag-denver-broncos-stats","tag-denverbroncos","tag-football","tag-nfl"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116250610870837890","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/819219","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=819219"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/819219\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/819220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=819219"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=819219"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=819219"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}