{"id":820720,"date":"2026-03-19T06:31:38","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T06:31:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/820720\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T06:31:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T06:31:38","slug":"fantasy-football-2026-how-free-agency-trades-may-have-changed-your-draft","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/820720\/","title":{"rendered":"Fantasy Football 2026: How free agency, trades may have changed your draft"},"content":{"rendered":"

Welcome back, readers. I still have four divisions to cover in my \u201cburning fantasy questions\u201d series, but with most of the big 2026 free agency moves and trades completed, a recap feels like a good idea. Pardon the interruption.<\/p>\n

The values of multiple players changed in the last two weeks, and it\u2019s important for fantasy players to stay on top of that. Additional player moves and the April draft will factor in, but for now, these are my quick takes on what went down in the last two weeks, from a fantasy perspective.<\/p>\n

I can\u2019t hit on every player that moved, or whose value changed because other players switched teams. I\u2019m also not going to spend much time on players who re-signed with the same team, like Alec Pierce. I\u2019ll try to hit on moves where I see the biggest impact for fantasy, and I\u2019ll try to be brief. Yeah, really\u2026Me, brief!<\/p>\n

All rankings given are for Half-point PPR, on a fantasy points per game basis, with Week 18 excluded.<\/p>\n

\"Can<\/a><\/p>\n

Can Kyler get his mojo back in Minnesota? Getty Images<\/p>\n

Malik Willis to Miami: The Tua era came to a disappointing end last season, and Miami\u2019s new brass, which came from the Packers, didn\u2019t surprise anyone when they brought Willis over from Green Bay.<\/p>\n

Willis is an intriguing option for fantasy because of his rushing upside, coupled with a big arm. This will be his first chance to see an extended run as a starter, so he\u2019s a bit of a mystery box as he enters his fifth season. The sample size is small, but in three starts over the last two seasons he averaged just under 60 yards rushing, and he\u2019s not just a good runner, he\u2019s potentially a Lamar Jackson-level runner. He also attempted 21 passes or less in all three of those starts, but that should go up some with him playing on a team that\u2019s going to be trailing often. The sports books have Miami\u2019s win total over\/under at 4.5 (and that was before they traded away Jaylen Waddle), which along with Arizona is the lowest in the league. Still, that low volume is a potential red flag not only for Willis but for whoever he is throwing to. The departure of Waddle is a pretty big negative, as Miami now has a no-name group of WRs and TEs, pending the draft.<\/p>\n

Willis has Top-10 quarterback upside because he\u2019s a legit dual-threat, but he\u2019s largely unproven, and the offense lacks weapons outside of RB Devon Achane. My advice would be to pair him with a mid-range QB (Goff, Darnold, Love, Purdy, etc.) if you take the gamble.<\/p>\n

Kyler Murray to Minnesota. Be careful out there, folks. Murray is a big name, the 2019 No. 1 overall draft pick, and a former Top-5 fantasy quarterback. But his final ranking among QBs has dropped for six straight seasons, and he\u2019s coming off a year where it sure felt like he got soft-benched. Sure, he\u2019ll be working with QB whisperer Kevin O\u2019Connell and the best group of targets he\u2019s ever had, but will Kyler be more Sam Darnold or more J.J. McCarthy? Murray can still run, although that aspect of his game has declined over time. He has also missed at least three games in four of the last five seasons.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll probably be out on Kyler this season, barring a major discount where I can take a flier on his upside while, again, pairing him with someone safer. As for the impact on Justin Jefferson and the other fantasy assets on the team, it can\u2019t get worse than last season, can it?<\/p>\n

Geno Smith to the Jets, Justin Fields to Kansas City, and Tua Tagovailoa to the Falcons. Yawn.<\/p>\n

\"Etienne<\/a><\/p>\n

Etienne is taking his talents to the Big Easy Getty Images<\/p>\n

Kenneth Walker III to Kansas City. Walker parlayed a magical playoff run that culminated in a Super Bowl MVP award into a big deal with the Chiefs, where there is opportunity for a much bigger workload than he had in Seattle. Walker played every game last season but missed eight total across the prior two campaigns, and lower body injuries have always been a concern.<\/p>\n

The Chiefs had the 25th-ranked rushing offense in the NFL last season and have been desperate for better production at the position for a long time. Walker has a chance to be an RB1 for fantasy this season and should get more passing game usage in an Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes offense. After what he did in the playoffs in a featured role, he won\u2019t come cheap. I like this move for him and for Kansas City, but we\u2019ll have to see how expensive he is in drafts.<\/p>\n

Travis Etienne, Jr. to New Orleans. It looks like the Alvin Kamara run is probably over, and he might not be on the team this season. The Saints have some younger backs, but they presumably brought in Etienne to be the lead back and to give Tyler Shough some much needed help in both the run and pass game.<\/p>\n

Etienne finished last season as the RB10, and while the Saints offense will likely not be as good as Jacksonville, he should again be in the low-end RB1 range in his age-27 season.<\/p>\n

This signing is a big boon for second-year running back Bhayshul Tuten, who likely will be the dominant shareholder in some kind of committee in Jacksonville, alongside newly added Chris Rodriguez, Jr.<\/p>\n

David Montgomery to Houston and Tyler Allgeier to Arizona. I\u2019m less excited by these moves than by what they leave in their wake. Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson were already Top-3 picks in fantasy next season, but these departures cement them as the 1.01 and 1.02 in 1-QB leagues, in whatever order you want. Across the last two seasons, Montgomery has 20 rushing TDs and Allgeier has 11. The Lions and Falcons will use other backs this season alongside their starter (Detroit added Isiah Pacheco), but there should be less vulturing of snaps inside the five, for both. The sky is the limit for both backs.<\/p>\n

As for Montgomery and Allgeier, neither one moves into a situation where he\u2019s a sure thing to get more work than the complementary role he had last season. Of the two, I like Montgomery much more for this season. He goes to a less crowded situation, on a much better team.<\/p>\n

Rachaad White to Washington, Kenneth Gainwell to Tampa, and Rico Dowdle to Pittsburgh. I\u2019m lumping these three lesser moves together because they\u2019re linked in a game of backup running back musical chairs. But all these moves have a fantasy impact, in terms of both the players moved and those left behind.<\/p>\n

Chuba Hubbard is a big beneficiary, and especially if Jonathon Brooks can\u2019t stay on the field after successive ACL tears. Bucky Irving takes a hit, not only with the addition of a very good pass-catching back in Gainwell, but also with the re-signing of Sean Tucker. White should get plenty of opportunities in Washington, unless the Commanders take Jeremiyah Love with the seventh pick in April\u2019s draft. Dowdle will compete with Jaylen Warren in Pittsburgh, harming both of their values. Fun fact: Dowdle is one of only ten backs who has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons.<\/p>\n

\"It\u2019ll<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019ll be strange to see Evans in a new uniform Getty Images<\/p>\n

Keep an eye on A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, Brian Thomas, Jr., Jauan Jennings, and Deebo Samuel. All could have new homes by the start of next season.<\/p>\n

As for moves that happened:<\/p>\n

D.J. Moore to Buffalo. The trade of Moore and a 2026 fifth-round pick for a 2026 second-round pick puts him in position to be Buffalo\u2019s clear WR1, and a WR1 for fantasy. Josh Allen has been in dire need of a big playmaker on the outside and if Moore has his head on straight and can play to his potential, this could be his best season. In Chicago, the trade opens the door for both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III to take big strides forward as the team\u2019s Top-2 wide receivers, although the hype train on this is already off the tracks, and prices during redraft season may be through the roof for players who have yet to prove it with a big season. Colston Loveland also benefits.<\/p>\n

Mike Evans to San Francisco. I really thought Evans would retire a Buc. But here he is, paired with Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy in a dynamic offense that schemes guys open, and has big holes at receiver. I like this move for both Evans and the 49ers. Evans comes with injury concerns of his own. He\u2019s missed time with hamstring injuries each of the last two seasons, plus a broken clavicle last season, and in his age 33 season he\u2019s a pretty big injury risk again. Still, he\u2019s 6-foot-5 and a great red zone weapon, which is something the 49ers will need with George Kittle likely to miss a chunk of the season as he recovers from achilles surgery, plus the other question marks that the team has at the position. Evans is no longer a WR1, and you\u2019ll want depth for the inevitable hamstring strain, but he should deliver solid WR2 numbers when healthy in Shanahan\u2019s offense.<\/p>\n

Jaylen Waddle to Denver. The big trade that went through on Tuesday makes it abundantly clear (in case there was any doubt) that Miami is in full tear-it-down and start over mode. Waddle, the sixth pick in the 2021 draft, was effectively dealt for the 30th pick and Denver\u2019s third rounder in this year\u2019s draft. It\u2019s a vertical move for him \u2014 from the NFL\u2019s lowest elevation home stadium to its highest, and from the bottom of the AFC to the top of it, or close to it. Denver obviously thinks they\u2019re a player or two away after losing in the Conference Championship last season, and Bo Nix will have a very nice 1a-1b tandem with Waddle and Courtland Sutton. It\u2019s a net positive for Waddle, who will hopefully revert to the solid WR2 that he was in his first couple of seasons. I won\u2019t move Sutton down much, but the trade should make Denver\u2019s other receivers afterthoughts in fantasy drafts. As for Miami, they\u2019re sure to add at least one receiver in the draft, but for now, Malik Washington is their default No. 1 WR, and should see a lot of volume. Fun fact – he led the nation in receptions (110) and yards (1,426) in his final season of college ball (Virginia).<\/p>\n

Romeo Doubs to New England. Bringing in a true No. 1 receiver to work with Drake Maye was an offseason priority for the Patriots, and this move doesn\u2019t change that, so keep an eye on New England to potentially add more. Doubs is a good receiver who will help the Pats. He\u2019s had some massive spike weeks, but he hasn\u2019t been overly consistent and isn\u2019t a WR1. He\u2019s going from one crowded wide receiver room to another, although in New England he should have a little less target competition. I think he\u2019s at best a WR2 this season, but again, let\u2019s see what else New England does.<\/p>\n

Wan\u2019Dale Robinson to the Titans and Michael Pittman, Jr. to the Steelers. I\u2019m lumping these two together because both moves sound bigger than they probably are. Pittman was a borderline Top-10 wide receiver last season before Daniel Jones got hurt, and he can play. I just have no read on Pittsburgh. I assume Aaron Rodgers will return, but this offense is going to look different, and D.K. Metcalf should be the top target, plus they use their tight ends and backs a lot in the passing game. As for Robinson, he\u2019s a nice piece, and I\u2019m sure he\u2019ll see a lot of volume, but I think the Titans will continue to be an offense with growing pains, plus they have Chimere Dike to take slot snaps and I wonder about Robinson\u2019s ability to win from other alignments. He could again be useful in PPR, and less so in other formats.<\/p>\n

In terms of impact on others, I like the Pittman departure for Josh Downs, who needs more snaps and targets and should get them.<\/p>\n

\"New<\/a><\/p>\n

New on Big Blue: Isaiah Likely Getty Images<\/p>\n

Isaiah Likely to the Giants. Here\u2019s an example of something we see every year: Coach goes to new team, coach brings in some players he really likes. Likely and FB Patrick Ricard are new members of the Big Blue offense, and Harbaugh clearly has a plan for how to use them. Likely is a matchup problem for linebackers and should see plenty of target opportunities. I expect him to run more routes and see more targets than Theo Johnson. The Giants also brought in Darnell Mooney and Calvin Austin III, and we\u2019ll see what they do in the draft, but a lot of targets from the last two seasons walked out the door with Wan\u2019Dale Robinson\u2019s departure. Likely has yet to really put it together, but he always had Mark Andrews in front of him on the depth chart. He\u2019s an intriguing TE2 with upside this season.<\/p>\n

The move also benefits Andrews, who should see an uptick in volume and red zone looks with Likely gone. Andrews is a sneaky pick to return to being Top-5 at his position.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s it for today. I\u2019ll be back soon with the biggest fantasy questions for the south divisions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Welcome back, readers. I still have four divisions to cover in my \u201cburning fantasy questions\u201d series, but with…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":820721,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2067],"tags":[1999,7,519,1917,56,1870,2321,2469,6],"class_list":{"0":"post-820720","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-new-york-giants","8":"tag-fantasy-football","9":"tag-football","10":"tag-giants","11":"tag-new-york","12":"tag-new-york-giants","13":"tag-new-york-giants-analysis","14":"tag-newyork","15":"tag-newyorkgiants","16":"tag-nfl"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116254442694661878","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/820720","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=820720"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/820720\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/820721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=820720"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=820720"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=820720"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}