{"id":835108,"date":"2026-03-26T16:11:20","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T16:11:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/835108\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T16:11:20","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T16:11:20","slug":"big-12-win-totals-picks-predictions-for-each-team-ahead-of-2026-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/835108\/","title":{"rendered":"Big 12 win totals: Picks, predictions for each team ahead of 2026 season"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Big 12 is heading into another chaotic season, but the league powers are starting to establish themselves. Texas Tech<\/a> is pulling away from the pack with an absurd 11.5 win total, one of the highest in college football<\/a>, but others hope to knock them off their perch.\u00a0<\/p>\n

BYU<\/a> and Utah<\/a> follow with win totals of 8.5 after both cleared 10 wins during the regular season last year. Arizona<\/a> and Houston<\/a> are also expected to follow up on breakout seasons. Colorado<\/a>, conversely, is projected in last place by Las Vegas oddsmakers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Our picks fared quite well last season, correctly picking 10 of the 16 Big 12 teams against their win totals. BYU, Utah and Texas Tech finished a consensus top three in the league, and we confidently had each hitting the over. We also hit on Oklahoma State<\/a> and Colorado bottoming out. That said, we completely whiffed on Arizona’s resurgence and Kansas State’s<\/a> struggles; we’ll try to do better this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Here’s our prediction for Big 12 teams against their Vegas win totals heading into the 2026 season. Odds provided via FanDuel<\/a> Sportsbook.\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Arizona<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 7.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: Northern Arizona<\/a>, NIU, at Washington State<\/a>, Cincinnati<\/a>, at West Virginia<\/a>, Iowa State<\/a>, TCU<\/a>, Utah, Arizona State<\/a><\/p>\n

Losses: at BYU, at Texas Tech, at Kansas State<\/p>\n

Analysis: The Wildcats were resurgent in Brent Brennan’s second season, winning nine games for only the third time in the 21st century. With star quarterback Noah Fifita<\/a> back, expect Arizona to again contend for that mark. Outside of road trips to BYU and Texas Tech, the schedule sets up very nicely. Pick: Over (+106)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Arizona State<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 6.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: Morgan State<\/a>, Kansas<\/a>, Baylor<\/a>, Hawaii<\/a>, Kansas State, Colorado, at UCF<\/a>, Oklahoma State<\/p>\n

Losses: at Texas A&M<\/a>, at Texas Tech, at BYU, at Arizona<\/p>\n

Analysis: The Sun Devils are replacing a lot after Sam Leavitt<\/a> transferred and Jordyn Tyson<\/a> left for the NFL<\/a>. However, oddsmakers are too low on ASU. Kenny Dillingham has made magic happen in the passing game, even when both Leavitt and Tyson were out. Kentucky<\/a> transfer Cutter Boley<\/a> showed some real flashes as a freshman. The team is still awfully young, but expect a winning record. Pick: Over (-112)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Baylor<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 6.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: Prairie View A&M<\/a>, Louisiana Tech<\/a>, Colorado, at UCF, Iowa State<\/p>\n

Losses: Auburn<\/a>, at Arizona State, TCU, at Kansas, at BYU, Texas Tech, at Houston<\/p>\n

Analysis: The Bears made one of the splash additions of the offseason with the transfer of former No. 1 quarterback recruit DJ Lagway<\/a> to Waco. However, the vast majority of weapons are gone in 2026, including running back Bryson Washington<\/a> (Auburn). The Bears will hope the returner-filled defense can take some steps, but the schedule does them few favors in 50\/50 games. Pick: Under (-108)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

BYU<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 8.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: Utah Tech<\/a>, Arizona, at Colorado State<\/a>, at TCU, Iowa State, at UCF, Arizona State, Baylor, at Kansas, Cincinnati<\/p>\n

Losses: Notre Dame<\/a>, at Utah<\/p>\n

Analysis: BYU has been the best program in the Big 12 over the past two years, posting a 23-4 record with an appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game. With star defenders Isaiah Glasker<\/a> and Faletau Satuala<\/a> back, they’re gunning for even more in 2026. A nonconference matchup against Notre Dame ranks as one of the biggest games in the history of the program. Pick: Over (+102)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

UCF<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 5.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: Bethune-Cookman<\/a>, Georgia State<\/a>, Iowa State<\/p>\n

Losses: at Pittsburgh<\/a>, TCU, at Houston, at Oklahoma State, BYU, Baylor, at Kansas, Arizona State, at Colorado<\/p>\n

Analysis: The Knights showed some pluckiness in their first season under Scott Frost, but the schedule gets notably tougher in 2026. Pittsburgh will be a thorn in nonconference play, and the Knights will be home underdogs against TCU, BYU and Arizona State. Pick: Under (+124)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Cincinnati<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 5.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: Boston College<\/a>, Western Carolina<\/a>, Miami (Ohio), Kansas State, Colorado<\/p>\n

Losses: at Arizona, at West Virginia, Texas Tech, Utah, at Houston, at Iowa State, at BYU<\/p>\n

Analysis: For the third season in a row, Cincinnati will be right on the cusp of fighting for bowl eligibility. This time, though, they don’t have quarterback Brendan Sorsby<\/a> to bail them out. The lineup is filled with underclassmen, and the Bearcats don’t have a clear identity to rely on after the graduation of several top playmakers. Pick: Over (+108)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Colorado<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 4.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: Weber State<\/a>, at Northwestern<\/a>, Kansas State, UCF<\/p>\n

Losses: at Georgia Tech<\/a>, at Baylor, Texas Tech, Utah, at Oklahoma State, at Arizona State, Houston, at Cincinnati<\/p>\n

Analysis: Colorado’s 2024 season — a nine-win campaign that produced Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter — is one of the best coaching jobs of the past few years. Outside of that, Deion Sanders is 2-16 in conference play as Buffs head coach. There are some nice defensive pieces across the roster, and quarterback Julian Lewis<\/a> has star potential. But after flipping 60 more players in 2026, the consistency and depth is just not there. Pick: Under (-144)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Houston<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 7.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: Oregon State<\/a>, Southern, at Georgia Southern<\/a>, UCF, at Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, at Colorado, Baylor<\/p>\n

Losses: at Texas Tech, at Utah, at West Virginia<\/p>\n

Analysis: Willie Fritz is in the Curt Cignetti category of guys who win so much, you should just Google them. His second season with the Cougars marks one of his most masterful campaigns yet, leading Houston to a stunning 10-win season. UH performed a little above its head during the streak, but the roster should take yet another step with quarterback Conner Weigman<\/a> leading a growing offense. Pick: Over (-154)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Iowa State<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 5.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: SEMO, Bowling Green<\/a>, West Virginia, Cincinnati<\/p>\n

Losses: at Iowa<\/a>, Utah, at BYU, at Arizona, Oklahoma State, at Baylor, at UCF, Kansas State<\/p>\n

Analysis: Jimmy Rodgers has the unenviable job of replacing legendary coach Matt Campbell<\/a>, but he made some shrewd signings in the portal. Quarterback Jalen Raynor (Arkansas State<\/a>), wide receiver Cody Jackson<\/a> (Tarleton) and offensive tackle Jake Taylor<\/a> (Oklahoma<\/a>) are high-upside swings who could all swing games. However, replacing an entire roster, for the most part, over an offseason is too much for even a great coaching staff to overcome. Pick: Under (-114)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Kansas<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 5.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: LIU<\/a>, Middle Tennessee<\/a>, Baylor, UCF, at West Virginia<\/p>\n

Losses: Missouri<\/a>, Arizona State, at Utah, at Kansas State, at TCU, BYU, at Oklahoma State<\/p>\n

Analysis: The Jayhawks are one of the toughest teams to project after losing longtime quarterback Jalon Daniels<\/a> and several key linemen. Returners Isaiah Marshall<\/a> and Cole Ballard<\/a> will compete for snaps at quarterback, and an upperclassman-heavy defense could take a step. The schedule doesn’t do them many favors, though, with only two home games against Big 12 teams, we project to miss a bowl. Pick: Under (+126)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Kansas State<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 7.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: Nicholls<\/a>, Washington State, Tulane<\/a>, Kansas, Arizona, at Iowa State<\/p>\n

Losses: at Cincinnati, Houston, at Arizona State, at Colorado, Oklahoma State, at TCU<\/p>\n

Analysis: We’ve been able to set our watch to Kansas State for the better part of 30 years, but things bottomed out in a disappointing final season for Chris Klieman. Incoming coach Collin Klein should be a godsend for quarterback Avery Johnson<\/a>, but the defense has serious questions after numerous contributors entered the transfer portal. The program will get back to a bowl game, but pushing for eight is a bridge too far. Pick: Under (-108)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Oklahoma State<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 5.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: at Tulsa<\/a>, Murray State<\/a>, at West Virginia, UCF, Colorado, at Iowa State, at Kansas State, Kansas<\/p>\n

Losses: Oregon<\/a>, at Houston, Texas Tech, at Arizona State<\/p>\n

Analysis: Don’t be surprised if Oklahoma State emerges as a mini-Indiana in the Big 12 next year. Eric Morris brought over more than a dozen transfers from North Texas<\/a>, including elite quarterback Drew Mestemaker<\/a>, running back Caleb Hawkins<\/a> and wide receiver Wyatt Young<\/a>. The swing really depends on the trenches. If the Cowboys managed to build Big 12-quality lines around their skill talent, there’s serious Big 12 contention potential. Pick: Over (-164)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

TCU<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 6.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: North Carolina<\/a>, Grambling State<\/a>, Arkansas State, at UCF, at Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas, Kansas State, Utah<\/p>\n

Losses: BYU, at Arizona, at Texas Tech<\/p>\n

Analysis: It’s hard to know what exactly to expect from TCU. Since reaching the national title game in Year 1, Sonny Dykes has reached a solid-but-unspectacular 23-15 record over the past three years. The program lost quarterback Josh Hoover<\/a> to Indiana<\/a> but found a steady replacement in Harvard<\/a> transfer Jaden Craig<\/a>. However, new offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis is the greatest reason for optimism. He was the centerpiece of UConn’s<\/a> magical run last season. Pick: Over (+106)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Texas Tech<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 11.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: Abilene Christian<\/a>, at Oregon State, Houston, Sam Houston<\/a>, at Colorado, Arizona State, at Cincinnati, Arizona, West Virginia, at Oklahoma State, at Baylor, TCU<\/p>\n

Losses: None<\/p>\n

Analysis: It’s extremely foolish to pick a power conference team to go undefeated before the season. The Red Raiders also lost a bevy of playmakers, including multiple potential first-round picks to the NFL Draft<\/a>. But, there are two factors that stand apart with the Red Raiders. First, their schedule is incredibly easy. They miss both Utah schools and get Houston, Arizona and TCU at home. The most interesting dynamic is that of the offensive line, which is poised to take a massive step forward in protecting top transfer quarterback Behren Morton<\/a>. Expect even more offensive fireworks in 2026. Pick: Over (+106)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

Utah<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 8.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: Idaho<\/a>, Arkansas<\/a>, Utah State<\/a>, at Iowa State, Kansas, at Colorado, Houston, at Cincinnati, BYU, West Virginia<\/p>\n

Losses: at Arizona, at TCU<\/p>\n

Analysis: The Utes are one of the more interesting teams in the conference. Kyle Whittingham brought the core of the returners to Michigan<\/a>, including offensive coordinator Jason Beck, but plenty of talent remains. Perhaps the swing dynamic will be integrating dual-threat quarterbacks Devon Dampier<\/a> and Byrd Ficklin<\/a> into a pass-happy system led by new offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven. Luckily, their schedule sets up phenomenally with three road games to teams we project to miss a bowl game. Pick: Over (+122)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"team
\n <\/a><\/p>\n

West Virginia<\/p>\n

Over\/under: 5.5 wins<\/p>\n

Wins: Coastal Carolina<\/a>, UT-Martin, Cincinnati, Houston<\/p>\n

Losses: Virginia<\/a>, Oklahoma State, at Iowa State, Arizona, at TCU, at Texas Tech, Kansas, at Utah<\/p>\n

Analysis: Rich Rodriguez pulled a stunning upset against Pittsburgh last year in the Backyard Brawl, but the rest of the season was substantially messier. The Mountaineers appeared to find something in quarterback Scotty Fox Jr.<\/a>, but most of the rest of the roster is turning over with more than 80 new additions. The talent level is steadily rising, but not quickly enough to flip this season. Pick: Under\u00a0(-108)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Big 12 is heading into another chaotic season, but the league powers are starting to establish themselves.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":835109,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[49568,1919,2283,7208,21193,7210,30827,9436,35797,62485,3722,4715,4733,59985,48968,78584,10305,70448,11362,4707,21202,115142,111651,331,59,6871,4706,20710,82478,33118,18684,67726,115141,7,4716,21190,21205,63323,41869,21185,5042,24145,4725,1286,4720,40516,111650,41876,66337,30826,7602,40533,31395,4719,4722,3499,60503,21186,3823,71,41095,7206,93143,14154,49,48,61396,36835,4717,41096,44995,8243,4732,6714,1787,4723,575,6094,22,3861,65803,5103,951,6776,21198,8403,64885,4724,5811,7212,4721,4711,22804,4708,6713,61394,12951,4718,671,6095,61262,1300,93320,55694,77422],"class_list":["post-835108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ncaa-football","tag-abilene-christian-wildcats","tag-arizona-state-sun-devils","tag-arizona-wildcats","tag-arkansas-razorbacks","tag-arkansas-state-red-wolves","tag-auburn-tigers","tag-avery-johnson","tag-baylor-bears","tag-behren-morton","tag-bethune-cookman-wildcats","tag-big-12","tag-boston-college-eagles","tag-bowling-green-falcons","tag-brendan-sorsby","tag-bryson-washington","tag-byrd-ficklin","tag-byu-cougars","tag-caleb-hawkins","tag-campbell-fighting-camels","tag-cincinnati-bearcats","tag-coastal-carolina-chanticleers","tag-cody-jackson","tag-cole-ballard","tag-college-football","tag-colorado-buffaloes","tag-colorado-state-rams","tag-connecticut-huskies","tag-conner-weigman","tag-cutter-boley","tag-devon-dampier","tag-dj-lagway","tag-drew-mestemaker","tag-faletau-satuala","tag-football","tag-georgia-tech-yellow-jackets","tag-georgia-southern-eagles","tag-georgia-state-panthers","tag-grambling-state-tigers","tag-harvard-crimson","tag-hawaii-rainbow-warriors","tag-houston-cougars","tag-idaho-vandals","tag-indiana-hoosiers","tag-iowa-hawkeyes","tag-iowa-state-cyclones","tag-isaiah-glasker","tag-isaiah-marshall","tag-jaden-craig","tag-jake-taylor","tag-jalon-daniels","tag-jordyn-tyson","tag-josh-hoover","tag-julian-lewis","tag-kansas-jayhawks","tag-kansas-state-wildcats","tag-kentucky-wildcats","tag-liu-sharks","tag-louisiana-tech-bulldogs","tag-marshall-thundering-herd","tag-michigan-wolverines","tag-middle-tenn-blue-raiders","tag-missouri-tigers","tag-morgan-state-bears","tag-murray-state-racers","tag-ncaa","tag-ncaa-football","tag-nicholls-colonels","tag-noah-fifita","tag-north-carolina-tar-heels","tag-north-texas-mean-green","tag-northern-arizona-lumberjacks","tag-northwestern-wildcats","tag-notre-dame-fighting-irish","tag-odds","tag-oklahoma-sooners","tag-oklahoma-state-cowboys","tag-oregon-ducks","tag-oregon-state-beavers","tag-picks","tag-pittsburgh-panthers","tag-prairie-view-am-panthers","tag-predictions","tag-sam-houston","tag-sam-leavitt","tag-sam-houston-bearkats","tag-schedule","tag-scotty-fox-jr","tag-tcu-horned-frogs","tag-teams","tag-texas-am-aggies","tag-texas-tech-red-raiders","tag-tulane-green-wave","tag-tulsa-golden-hurricane","tag-ucf-knights","tag-utah-state-aggies","tag-utah-tech-trailblazers","tag-utah-utes","tag-virginia-cavaliers","tag-washington-huskies","tag-washington-state-cougars","tag-weber-state-wildcats","tag-west-virginia-mountaineers","tag-western-carolina-catamounts","tag-win-totals","tag-wyatt-young"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/835108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=835108"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/835108\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/835109"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=835108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=835108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=835108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}