{"id":849976,"date":"2026-04-02T20:44:19","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T20:44:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/849976\/"},"modified":"2026-04-02T20:44:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T20:44:19","slug":"the-case-for-all-32-nfl-teams-to-make-miss-playoffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/849976\/","title":{"rendered":"The Case for All 32 NFL Teams to Make\/Miss Playoffs"},"content":{"rendered":"

NFL odds<\/a> will \u2013 generally speaking \u2013 price teams as favorites to make the playoffs a year after making it. Teams that missed the playoffs will generally get priced to miss again.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s worth noting that, historically, teams have experienced outcomes opposite their odds.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Since 2021 \u2013 the year the NFL moved to 17 games \u2013 at least two teams missed the playoffs priced at -200 or higher to make:\u00a0<\/p>\n

2025: Baltimore, Kansas City
\n2024: San Francisco, Cincinnati, Dallas
\n2023: Cincinnati, Jacksonville
\n2022: Green Bay, LA Rams
\n2021: Baltimore, Cleveland<\/p>\n

Over the same timeframe, at least one team has made the playoffs at lofty odds. Since 2021, at least one team priced at +250 or higher has made the playoffs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Before last season, multiple teams made the playoffs priced at or above the aforementioned price:\u00a0<\/p>\n

2021: Cincinnati, Las Vegas, Philadelphia
\n2022: Jacksonville, Seattle
\n2023: LA Rams, Tampa Bay, Houston
\n2024: Denver, Washington
\n2025: Carolina<\/p>\n

Only five of the 11 teams listed above came through as division winners: Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Houston and Carolina.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Given the precedent, let\u2019s dive into the case for each team to make and miss the playoffs in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cases for All 32 NFL Teams to Make & Miss the Playoffs
\nArizona Cardinals<\/p>\n

Make (+1500): A healthier defense returns to 2024 levels. Year over year, Arizona dropped from 14th to 21st in defensive DVOA while losing the second-most adjusted games to injury.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +1500 <\/a><\/p>\n

New head coach Mike LaFleur transforms the offense, led by Jacoby Brissett. Arizona also positively regresses from 102 AGL on offense, most in the NFL.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The team simultaneously improves from a 2-8 record in one-possession games and 0-6 record in the division.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Cardinals Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-5000): Have you seen the schedule? Arizona plays the league\u2019s hardest schedule by opponent win totals, most of which is contained within the division.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -5000 <\/a><\/p>\n

Against a difficult schedule, the team quietly quits for a high draft pick.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Atlanta Falcons<\/p>\n

Make (+240): Bijan Robinson continues to post superhuman stats in a revamped Kevin Stefanski ground game.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +240 <\/a><\/p>\n

Atlanta benefits from playing more difficult games at home and wins five divisional games to capture the NFC South.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Falcons Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-300): The defense regresses massively against a difficult set of offenses. Outside the division, Atlanta plays the NFC North, AFC North and Commanders, Chiefs and 49ers.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -300 <\/a><\/p>\n

Last year, the Falcons won only three games, allowing over 20 points. It came while playing 42% of snaps against quarterbacks ranked 30th or worse in EPA per play, the 10th-most in the NFL.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Baltimore Ravens<\/p>\n

Make (-400): Jesse Minter lifts the defense up from 21st in DVOA against an easy schedule. Next year, Baltimore projects to face the league\u2019s fourth-easiest schedule of offenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -400 <\/a><\/p>\n

An improved defense allows Baltimore to positively regress from a 2-5 record in one-possession games while winning the division.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Ravens Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+310): Losing Tyler Linderbaum, Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar severely impacts the offense.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +310 <\/a><\/p>\n

Baltimore ranked fourth or better in rush offense DVOA each of the last four seasons. Without key blocking personnel, the unit suffers as Baltimore drops out of the top-10 DVOA rankings.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Buffalo Bills<\/p>\n

Make (-350): New head coach Joe Brady continues to lead one of the league\u2019s best offenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -350 <\/a><\/p>\n

Despite losing guard David Edwards, the rushing attack finishes sixth or higher in DVOA for the fifth straight year. It allows the Bills to win in one of the NFL\u2019s weakest divisions.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Bills Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+280): Pent-up injury regression hits the offense as the defense struggles outside the division.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +280 <\/a><\/p>\n

Over the last two years, Buffalo lost 11 and 12.3 adjusted games to injury on offense. Contextualize that against Arizona losing 102 JUST LAST YEAR.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Outside the division, Buffalo plays the AFC West, NFC North and Ravens\/Texans\/Rams as unique opponents.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Carolina Panthers<\/p>\n

Make (+260): Jaelen Phillips and Devin Lloyd transform into Lawrence Taylor and Luke Kuechly.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +260 <\/a><\/p>\n

The defense takes a massive step forward against overwhelming regression indicators, and the schedule plays wildly easier than perceived. Carolina repeats as NFC South champions.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Panthers Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-325): I could write a dissertation here about every reason Carolina won\u2019t make the playoffs.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -325 <\/a><\/p>\n

Instead, I\u2019ll shorten it to this: Carolina finished 6-2 in field-goal games and 7-3 in one-possession games last year. Look what happened to the mighty Chiefs as a significant regression candidate in 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Chicago Bears<\/p>\n

Make (+100): What if turnover luck is not random?\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +100 <\/a><\/p>\n

Despite losing a ton of defensive pieces \u2013 Nahshon Wright, Kevin Byard, Tremaine Edmunds and Jaquan Brisker \u2013 Chicago props the defense up with turnovers, not stops.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ben Johnson takes the offense from ninth in DVOA to fifth or better. We also learn Philadelphia, Seattle and Jacksonville are not as good as the market makes them out to be.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Bears Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-120): Like every franchise other than the Steelers, Chicago regresses massively from close-game luck.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -120 <\/a><\/p>\n

Last year, the Bears finished 7-4 in one-possession games. The Bears won 11 games despite ranking 13th in offensive snaps from leading positions.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Chicago regresses against the seventh-hardest schedule by opponent season win totals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cincinnati Bengals<\/p>\n

Make (-130): At full health, the Bengals offense ranks amongst the best in the league. In 2024, the team finished fifth in offensive DVOA.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -130 <\/a><\/p>\n

Cincinnati plays the league\u2019s third-easiest schedule based on opponent win totals. The defense projects to face the league\u2019s easiest schedule in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Barring continued misfortune in divisional games, Cincinnati makes the playoffs with ease.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Bengals Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+110): The offensive line continues to fail as Joe Burrow sustains another injury.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +110 <\/a><\/p>\n

Defensively, the unit takes a step back as we underestimate the following offenses: Carolina, New Orleans, Cleveland, Miami and Houston.\u00a0<\/p>\n

All take big steps forward as the defensive schedule plays harder than expected.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cleveland Browns<\/p>\n

Make (+450): Cleveland faces the easiest set of unique opponents within the AFC North.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +450 <\/a><\/p>\n

Cleveland plays the Giants, Raiders and Titans as unique games next year. The team also gets non-unique games against the AFC & NFC South.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jim Schwartz\u2019s departure means little as the defense plays the league\u2019s fifth-easiest set of offenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Browns Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-625): Schwartz\u2019s departure does impact the defense as it struggles against an easy schedule.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -625 <\/a><\/p>\n

Cleveland also continues to sustain injuries at an alarming rate. Over the last three years, the Browns have lost over 100 adjusted games to injury every season.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Deshaun Watson leads an anemic offense behind the league\u2019s worst offensive line as the team vies for a high draft pick.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dallas Cowboys<\/p>\n

Make (+110): Dallas deploys one of the league\u2019s best offenses with the highest offensive ceiling in the NFC East.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +110 <\/a><\/p>\n

The offense renders Dallas competitive in difficult games against the 49ers, Seahawks and Rams. Unique games against the Packers, Bucs and Ravens play easier than perceived.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It leads to a division despite the Cowboys defense projecting to face the league\u2019s fifth-hardest set of offenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Cowboys Over Under WIns<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-130): Offseason additions to the defense mean little as the schedule plays as difficult as projected.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -130 <\/a><\/p>\n

As Dallas\u2019 opponents rack up points, it becomes increasingly difficult for the offense to keep pace. The team turns into the NFC\u2019s Bengals as the market overrates their 4-2 divisional record.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dallas plays the league\u2019s fifth-hardest schedule by opposing win totals. Philadelphia (sixth-easiest) wins a third straight NFC East title thanks to easy unique games.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Denver Broncos<\/p>\n

Make (-140): Jaylen Waddle\u2019s arrival helps the offense flourish at a higher rate than the defensive decline.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -140 <\/a><\/p>\n

Bettors learn the Bills, Rams, 49ers, Jaguars and Patriots\u2019 offenses aren\u2019t as good as we perceive.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Denver cruises to the playoffs against the 11th-easiest schedule by opponent win totals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Broncos Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+115): Denver experiences massive regression in close games, especially on the road.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +115 <\/a><\/p>\n

Last year, Denver finished 11-2 in one-possession games, including 6-2 in games decided by three points or less. Of those 11 wins, six came away from home.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Denver\u2019s defense simultaneously regresses after playing an easy schedule. Last year, Denver faced 47% of snaps against QBs ranked 30th or worse in EPA.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This year, Denver\u2019s defense projects to go from an opponent schedule with a -3.9% offensive DVOA rating to a -0.6% average rating.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Detroit Lions<\/p>\n

Make (-220): Detroit plays the league\u2019s easiest schedule by opponent win totals. Realistically, Dan Campbell\u2019s team projects to close as a favorite in 14-16 games next year.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -220 <\/a><\/p>\n

Drew Petzing\u2019s arrival leads to a restored rushing dominance, even without David Montgomery. Year over year, Detroit fell from 12.1% rush DVOA to -1.7%, per FTN Fantasy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It removes pressure from a suspect offensive line as the Lions reclaim the NFC North.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Lions Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+180): Injury issues continue to plague the Lions. Over the last two years, Detroit lost north of 220 combined AGL to injury.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +180 <\/a><\/p>\n

We learn the NFC South and AFC East are actually the two best divisions instead of the two worst. Campbell and Goff regress massively from their 76% (35-11) record as a favorite.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Green Bay Packers<\/p>\n

Make (-210): Green Bay lost three games last season where they didn\u2019t punt the football!\u00a0<\/p>\n

Turnover variance led to Green Bay losing as 13-point favorites to Carolina and blowing a lead to Chicago in the blink of an eye.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -210 <\/a><\/p>\n

If the offense continues to thrive \u2013 sixth and fourth in DVOA over the last two years \u2013 Green Bay could continue its playoff streak.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Packers Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+170): Defensively, Green Bay projects to face the league\u2019s 11th-hardest schedule by 2025 DVOA ratings. They\u2019ll do so with Micah Parsons returning from an Achilles tear.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +170 <\/a><\/p>\n

Last year, Green Bay struggled against the 23rd-hardest schedule (see: 34 points allowed to Denver).\u00a0<\/p>\n

During the offseason, the Packers lost DC Jeff Hafley, LB Quay Walker and edge Rashan Gary. The offensive line also takes a big step back after losing Rasheed Walker and Elgton Jenkins.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Houston Texans<\/p>\n

Make (-140): Houston\u2019s defense repeats its strength against an easier set of offenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -140 <\/a><\/p>\n

Next year, the Texans project to face a set of offenses that averaged a +0.2% DVOA rating. Last year, opponents averaged a +2.7% rating.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Offseason additions improve the offensive line as the Texans play ahead of schedule. Accordingly, the pass rush and corner groups continue to shine.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Texans Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+115): Houston\u2019s reliance on defense to win games comes to a head. Over the last two years, 14 of Houston\u2019s 22 wins have come by one possession or less.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +115 <\/a><\/p>\n

Last year, the Texans benefited massively from opponent field-goal misfortune. Last year, Houston\u2019s +23.9% field-goal make percentage delta led the league.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Against the league\u2019s sixth-hardest schedule by opponent win totals, Houston regresses in close games and misses the postseason.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts<\/p>\n

Make (+140): Daniel Jones\u2019 Achilles injury is no big deal as the rushing attack continues to thrive. Over the last three years, Indy ranked no worse than 10th in rush offense DVOA.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +140 <\/a><\/p>\n

The Colts positively regress from a 3-7 record in one-possession games last year against an easy schedule.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Next year, the Colts play the second-easiest set of unique opponents in the division. In general, Shane Steichen\u2019s team plays the league\u2019s 12th-easiest schedule in the league.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Defensively, the Colts project to face the league\u2019s second-easiest schedule.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Colts Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-165): Daniel Jones\u2019 injury proves a big deal. Moving Josh Downs from slot receiver to a wide position \u2013 in place of Michael Pittman Jr. \u2013 turns Indy into a predictable offense.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -165 <\/a><\/p>\n

Teams either limit Jonathan Taylor or the back sustains an injury.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In terms of the schedule, the Colts face teams with unique home-field advantages: Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Washington.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jacksonville Jaguars<\/p>\n

Make (-135): Andrew Wingard, Greg Newsome and Devin Lloyd\u2019s departures mean absolutely nothing. Anthony Campanile\u2019s defense continues to force turnovers against a difficult schedule.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -135 <\/a><\/p>\n

Either that happens, or the offense continues its tail-end form from last season. In that scenario, overwhelming defensive regression means nothing as the Jags become Bengals 2.0.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Jaguars Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+115): Turnovers dry up on defense as the Jaguars face a more difficult set of offenses. The defense went from nine takeaways in \u201824 to 31 in \u201825.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +115 <\/a><\/p>\n

Last year, the Jags faced 58% of defensive snaps against quarterbacks ranked 30th or worse in EPA per play. Despite that output, Jacksonville won six games by a possession or less.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Offensively, Trevor Lawrence threw 12 interceptions off 22 turnover-worthy plays.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If the team experiences worse turnover luck and regresses from a 5-1 divisional record, it could leave them outside the playoffs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Kansas City Chiefs<\/p>\n

Make (-220): Kansas City\u2019s one-possession game luck returns to average. After going 11-0 in 2024, the Chiefs finished 1-9 in such games last season.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -220 <\/a><\/p>\n

Patrick Mahomes missed two-and-a-half divisional games. The team improves from a 1-5 divisional record despite drawing harder unique games than Denver and Las Vegas.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Kenneth Walker\u2019s arrival bolsters the offense while Steve Spagnuolo hides a weak secondary with creative blitz packages.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Chiefs Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+185): Kansas City regresses defensively against a significantly more difficult schedule.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +185 <\/a><\/p>\n

Last year, the defense ranked 16th in DVOA against the 24th-hardest set of offenses. By 2025 offensive DVOA ratings, Kansas City goes from a -1.5% opponent average to a +0.2%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The team also loses a home game with a very difficult road schedule. Outside the division, Kansas City plays Buffalo, Miami, LA Rams, Seattle, Cincinnati and Atlanta.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If the Chiefs don\u2019t win the division and Mahomes struggles post-injury, Kansas City could miss entirely.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Chargers<\/p>\n

Make (-210): Mike McDaniel coordinates a radically improved offense. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater return as the offense continues to run the football well.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -210 <\/a><\/p>\n

Despite key injuries last year, the Chargers improved from a -10.4% rush offense DVOA rating to a -8.6% rating.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Loads of injuries render LA\u2019s regression indicators misleading as the offense takes a huge step forward.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Chargers Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+170): LA\u2019s overreliance on defense to win games catches up to them. Last year, the Chargers ranked 10th in defensive DVOA against the fourth-easiest set of offenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +170 <\/a><\/p>\n

Jesse Minter\u2019s departure severely hampers the unit. Additionally, the Chargers project to face the league\u2019s 12th-hardest set of offenses by 2025 DVOA ratings.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If the one-possession game luck is meaningful, the schedule becomes important. Next year, LA plays 11 of 17 games against teams with win totals set at 9.5 or higher.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Rams<\/p>\n

Make (-285): The Rams went out and addressed their biggest need in spades. Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson instantly upgrade the secondary.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -285 <\/a><\/p>\n

LA retaining both Kam Curl and defensive coordinator Chris Shula is massive, too. It leads to an elite defense that is supported by a high-floor offense at full health.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Accordingly, the Rams overcome a difficult schedule to win the NFC West crown.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Rams Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+230): What if the offense isn\u2019t as good as we think it is?\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +230 <\/a><\/p>\n

Last year, the Rams led the NFL in offensive DVOA (30.7%). Historically, when an offense performs that well, it leads to a decline the next year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Two teams finished above 30% offensive DVOA since 2023. Both teams won eight or fewer games the following season.<\/p>\n

A limited sample puts a damper on those trends. However, the Rams offense piqued down the stretch against bad or hurt defenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Injuries to Matthew Stafford or Puka Nacua could derail the offense. Then the defensive acquisitions mean little as the Rams play the league\u2019s third-hardest schedule by win totals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Las Vegas Raiders<\/p>\n

Make (+700): The offensive line goes from a liability to a strength. Kolton Miller returns from injury, and Tyler Linderbaum lives up to his free agency contract.<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +700 <\/a><\/p>\n

The result? Ashton Jeanty radically improves from his boom-or-bust output in 2025. His dominance takes pressure off Fernando Mendoza and a weak receiving corps.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Defensive additions like Nakobe Dean, Kwity Paye, Quay Walker and Taron Johnson bolster the defense. Maxx Crosby\u2019s nullified trade gives the Raiders their best weapon back.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Against the softest set of unique opponents in the AFC West, Vegas surprises and contends for the division crown.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Raiders Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-1200): Klint Kubiak fails to improve the Raiders offense as the run game continues to struggle.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -1200 <\/a><\/p>\n

Las Vegas falters in perceived easy games against Tennessee and New Orleans. No positive regression occurs in the Raiders\u2019 close divisional games from 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The result? Another last-place finish against a schedule that includes 11 games against teams possessing win totals of 9.5 or higher.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Miami Dolphins<\/p>\n

Make (+1000): The team is not actively tanking, and their unique opponents play significantly easier than expected. Those teams: Cincinnati, San Francisco and Indianapolis.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +1000 <\/a><\/p>\n

Miami goes 3-0 against those opponents and puts on defensive masterclasses against Buffalo and New England. Miami\u2019s home-field edge arrives in spades against a brutal schedule<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Dolphins Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-2000): Miami projects to play one of the league\u2019s most difficult schedules.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -2000 <\/a><\/p>\n

Only the Cardinals face a more difficult schedule. A realistic chance exists that Miami closes as a market underdog in every game this season, depending on when they get the Jets at home.\u00a0<\/p>\n

By a two-year blended average of offensive DVOA rankings, the Dolphins face the league\u2019s fourth-hardest set of offenses. They\u2019ll do so with one of the league\u2019s cheapest defenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Minnesota Vikings<\/p>\n

Make (+170): The Vikings were, in fact, a quarterback away as Kyler Murray gets the offense to Sam Darnold levels rather than J.J. McCarthy levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +170 <\/a><\/p>\n

Brian Flores keeps the defense playing at a high level, despite a brutal schedule. Next year, Minnesota projects to face the league\u2019s second-hardest set of offenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Washington, Indianapolis and San Francisco take steps back in relation to their market rating. Minnesota wins every unique game and contends for the division title.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Vikings Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-210): The Vikings defense is not as good as the 2025 levels suggest.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -210 <\/a><\/p>\n

While Minnesota ranked third in defensive DVOA, the unit posted the highest variance of any defense in 2025. From Week 7-13, the defense ranked 28th in dropback EPA per play.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Instead of going 3-1 against the Lions and Packers, Minnesota goes 1-3. The defensive schedule plays as difficult as advertised, and the unit takes a step back.\u00a0<\/p>\n

New England Patriots<\/p>\n

Make (-185): Here are the unique opponents for the Bills and Patriots next year:<\/p>\n

Buffalo: Baltimore, Houston, LA Rams
\nNew England: Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Seattle<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -185 <\/a><\/p>\n

Both teams struggle against the AFC & NFC North. The Patriots take advantage of an easier unique opponent set as Drake Maye replicates his 2025 stats.\u00a0<\/p>\n

New England\u2019s defense performs better than expected due to an easy schedule. Next season, the Patriots project to face the league\u2019s 24th-hardest defensive schedule (-2.1%).\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Patriots Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+150): New England regresses from an 8-0 record away from home. Outside the division, the Patriots face the Chiefs, Chargers, Bears, Lions, Jaguars and Seahawks on the road.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +150 <\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s not far-fetched to believe New England goes from 8-0 to 2-7 or 3-6 against that schedule. Plus, the defense played 61% of snaps against quarterbacks 30th or worse in EPA last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

No team played a higher percentage of snaps against such quarterbacks. The Super Bowl hangover proves real as the Patriots see anything but the league\u2019s best injury luck.\u00a0<\/p>\n

New Orleans Saints<\/p>\n

Make (+200): The defensive schedule plays really easy, as the unit continues its ascent from late last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +200 <\/a><\/p>\n

From Week 10 onward, New Orleans allowed only 17.5 points per game. Brandon Staley\u2019s unit led the NFL in EPA per play and success rate over that span.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Next year, the Saints play the league\u2019s second-easiest schedule by opponent win totals. Unique games against the Cardinals, Giants and Raiders offer a chance to win the division.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Saints Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-250): The defensive schedule plays closer to the two-year average than the 2025 average.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -250 <\/a><\/p>\n

New Orleans\u2019 2026 opponents averaged a -4.1% offensive DVOA rating in 2025. Include those teams\u2019 data from 2024, and it rises to -1.3%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Las Vegas and the Giants improve more rapidly than New Orleans. The Saints go 1-2 in non-divisional games and fail to capitalize on a soft schedule.\u00a0<\/p>\n

New York Giants<\/p>\n

Make (+300): John Harbaugh leads the Giants to a close-to-flawless home record. Next season, the Giants\u2019 nine home opponents average a 7.1 season win total.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +300 <\/a><\/p>\n

Offensive line play somehow improves to keep Jaxson Dart healthy. Malik Nabers returns to bolster the offense, which takes a step forward in Dart\u2019s second season.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Improved coaching leads the Giants to positively regress from a 1-7 record in one-possession games.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Last year, New York won three games despite ranking T-10th in offensive red zone chances. They also played with the lead during 377 snaps, the 17th-best mark in the league.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Giants Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-375): Harbaugh\u2019s poor coaching decisions keep the Giants from positively regressing in close games.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -375 <\/a><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the offensive line \u2013 save for Andrew Thomas \u2013 remains a massive issue. New York struggles to keep Dart protected while playing behind against strong offenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n

New York drops all eight games against top-14 DVOA offenses from 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Injuries continue to pile up due to the MetLife Stadium turf. Over the last three years, New York averaged 83.2 adjusted games lost to injury, including 95 last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

New York Jets<\/p>\n

Make (+800): The offensive line remains a strength, even with Alijah Vera-Tucker heading to New England.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +800 <\/a><\/p>\n

Geno Smith takes over behind a significantly better line than in Las Vegas. He also (arguably) has the best RB1-WR1 combo of any AFC East team.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Entertain a world where the Jets go from four defensive takeaways to 25+. From 2024 to 2025, Jacksonville went from nine to 31.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It leads to a number of unlikely victories against the league\u2019s fifth-easiest schedule by opponent win totals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Jets Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-1400): Schedule makers frontload the Jets\u2019 schedule with all their difficult games. The team fails to positively regress from last year\u2019s early misfortune.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -1400 <\/a><\/p>\n

After firing Aaron Glenn due to a declining defense, the Jets turn from Smith to Brady Cook in an effort to secure the top pick in 2027\u2019s draft.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Eagles<\/p>\n

Make (-200): The defense, despite losing Jaelen Phillips and Reed Blankenship, continues to dominate teams.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -200 <\/a><\/p>\n

Last year, the Eagles ranked ninth in DVOA, facing the league\u2019s fourth-hardest schedule. Sean Mannion overhauls the offense as the running game radically improves.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Easy, unique games \u2013 Pittsburgh, Carolina, Chicago \u2013 propel the Eagles to a third straight NFC East crown.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Eagles Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+165): The Eagles defense takes a massive step back against a difficult schedule.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +165 <\/a><\/p>\n

Last year, Philadelphia\u2019s opponents averaged a +2.2% DVOA rating. Next year\u2019s opponents average a +3.1% DVOA rating, per FTN Fantasy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A lack of edge talent, along with a declining offense, sees Philadelphia regress from an 8-4 record in one-possession games.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Steelers<\/p>\n

Make (+155): If all goes well, the defense could become an older, more expensive Texans defense.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +155 <\/a><\/p>\n

I say that in flattery, but the cornerstones in Pittsburgh are edge and corner. Plus, the run defense played exponentially better with Derrick Harmon healthy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In a division with two high-ceiling offenses, Pittsburgh could claim the North via outstanding defensive play.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Steelers Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-190): Mike Tomlin\u2019s departure leads to a decline in Pittsburgh\u2019s defensive voodoo. In each of the last three seasons, the Steelers produced at least 27 takeaways.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -190 <\/a><\/p>\n

Aaron Rodgers retires instead of returning as assumed, and Pittsburgh is left with the weakest quarterback room in the league.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Offensively, Pittsburgh fails to stay on the field as an aging defense racks up a ton of snaps. It leads to massive regression from a 22-9 record in one-possession games since 2023.\u00a0<\/p>\n

San Francisco 49ers<\/p>\n

Make (-145): Mike Evans helps transform an offense that, despite injuries last year, ranked second in DVOA.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -145 <\/a><\/p>\n

San Francisco uses its offensive prowess to take advantage of the easiest schedule within the NFC West. Next year, the 49ers play unique games against the Vikings, Falcons and Dolphins.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Raheem Morris simultaneously transforms the defense against a comparably easier set of opponents.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Next year, San Francisco plays only three games against top-eight \u201825 DVOA offenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: 49ers Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+120): The consistent injury issues remain for San Francisco. In 2025, the team lost 115 adjusted games to injury compared to 141 in 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +120 <\/a><\/p>\n

Alternatively, San Francisco spiked offensively late last year due to an easy schedule. The offense struggles against Seattle and Los Angeles, rendering the schedule edge meaningless.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Paired with a difficult road schedule \u2013 Dallas, Kansas City, Los Angeles (A), New York (N) and Atlanta \u2013 the 49ers finish third in the NFC West.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Seattle Seahawks<\/p>\n

Make (-275): Seattle benefits from a proportionally harder home schedule and an overrated set of unique opponents.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -275 <\/a><\/p>\n

Seattle plays three unique games against Chicago, New England and Carolina. Two come at home with their home opponents, averaging a 9.2 season win total. On the road: 8.25.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Outside the division, Seattle plays only three games against top-10 pass offense DVOA units. The defense continues its excellence as Seattle reclaims the division.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Seahawks Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+225): Klint Kubiak\u2019s departure hampers an offense that relied on explosives to succeed. Last year, Seattle ranked third in points per game vs. T-10th in red zone opportunities.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +225 <\/a><\/p>\n

Plus, Seattle posted a +37 point differential via defense and special teams touchdowns last year. It accounted for 19% of their total point differential.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If those points dry up, it could lead to regression from a 6-3 record in one-possession games.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That, along with the league\u2019s hardest defensive schedule based on 2025 ratings, sees Seattle place third in the division outside the playoff picture.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/p>\n

Make (-125): New OC Zac Robinson finds a way to run the ball effectively. From 2024 to 2025, Tampa Bay fell from eighth to 26th in rush offense DVOA.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ -125 <\/a><\/p>\n

Better injury luck helps the offense return to a top-10 DVOA rating like in 2024. Last year, only two offenses lost more adjusted games to injury.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The surge helps Tampa Bay win the NFC South by dominating the Saints, Falcons and Panthers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Buccaneers Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (+105): The defense craters after losing Jamel Dean and Lavonte David. It results in Tampa Bay regressing from winning nothing but close games in 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ +105 <\/a><\/p>\n

Six of Tampa Bay\u2019s eight wins last year came by three points or less. That sample includes every win during Tampa\u2019s 4-1 start last season.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Robinson fails to turn the offense around, as the team regresses to a 3-3 record in divisional games.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tennessee Titans<\/p>\n

Make (+300): Robert Saleh transforms the defense against a significantly easier schedule. Year over year, Tennessee\u2019s opponents go from a +1.5% average to a -1.9% DVOA average.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +300 <\/a><\/p>\n

It coincides with Brian Daboll improving Cam Ward. The second-year quarterback simultaneously takes a step forward by facing anything but the hardest set of defenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tennessee positively regresses from a 2-5 record in one-possession games and a 0-6 record in the division. It leads to a division title against the easiest set of unique games in the AFC South.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Titans Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-375): Ward continues to struggle against Houston\u2019s defense as the division schedule plays harder than perceived.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -375 <\/a><\/p>\n

The offensive line struggles to protect and block for the ground game. It keeps putting Tennessee in third-and-long situations with minimal improvement.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A brutal road schedule \u2013 Baltimore, Cincinnati, Dallas, Detroit, Las Vegas and New York (N) \u2013 leaves Tennessee to another last-place finish.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Washington Commanders<\/p>\n

Make (+225): Jayden Daniels avoids another injury and posts an MVP-caliber season. Washington improves radically from a 23rd-place offensive DVOA ranking.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n Yes @ +225 <\/a><\/p>\n

Two years ago, the Commanders ranked sixth in offensive DVOA. Losing Kliff Kingsbury leaves no impact on Washington, which faces a disproportionately harder schedule at home.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Next year, Washington plays nine home games. Only one (Giants) comes against a team with a win total set at eight or lower.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additional Analysis: Commanders Over Under Wins<\/a><\/p>\n

Miss (-275): The defense regresses from 28th in DVOA by playing a brutal schedule. Last year, Washington placed 28th despite facing the 17th-hardest schedule.\u00a0<\/p>\n


\n No @ -275 <\/a><\/p>\n

Next year, the Commanders project to face the league\u2019s sixth-hardest set of offenses. By 2026 win totals, only six teams play a harder schedule than Washington.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Paired with Kingsbury\u2019s departure, Washington fails to positively regress from a 2-5 record in one-possession games due to the schedule difficulty. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"NFL odds will \u2013 generally speaking \u2013 price teams as favorites to make the playoffs a year after…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":849977,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[7,6,84],"class_list":{"0":"post-849976","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl-playoffs","8":"tag-football","9":"tag-nfl","10":"tag-nfl-playoffs"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116337066871381446","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/849976","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=849976"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/849976\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/849977"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=849976"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=849976"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=849976"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}