Much of the conversation around the Vikings’ first-round pick at No. 18 overall has centered around Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman, who projects as a logical replacement for Minnesota if Harrison Smith ultimately elects to retire. Toledo’s Emmanuel McNeil-Warren is another safety who could make a lot of sense for the Vikings at 18.<\/p>\n
One thing we perhaps haven’t spent enough time considering is this possibility: What if the top safety in the draft falls to Minnesota? Ohio State’s Caleb Downs is viewed as a consensus top-ten overall prospect in this year’s class, but it may not be crazy to think there’s at least a chance he slips into the teens \u2014 and perhaps all the way to 18.<\/p>\n
The case for a Downs slide, which was raised by @Krauserrific on Twitter, has a few main components. The first is that because of positional value, safeties \u2014 even the ones who are viewed as elite prospects \u2014 tend to fall down the board a bit on draft night. The others are specific to Downs. He did not do athletic testing at either the NFL combine or Ohio State’s pro day. There was also a report coming out of the combine that he was flagged for a potentially degenerative knee condition, although others \u2014 and Downs himself \u2014 have pushed back against that notion.<\/p>\n
If Downs were to go later in the draft than most mocks expect, it wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened to a top safety prospect. Only eight safeties have gone in the top 10 picks since 2000, with the most recent being Jamal Adams in 2017.<\/p>\n
Highly-ranked safeties tend to fall in the draft<\/p>\n
2018
Minkah 6th (by consensus board) –> #11 overall
Derwin 7th –> #21<\/p>\n
2020
McKinney 21st –> #36<\/p>\n
2021
Moehrig 25th –> #43<\/p>\n
2022
Hamilton 4th –> #14<\/p>\n
2023
Branch 16th –> #45<\/p>\n
2024
Starks 16th –> #27<\/p>\n
2025
Downs ??<\/p>\n
\u2014 Krauser (@Krauserrific) April 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Without all of the facts, it’s hard to know what to make of the rumors surrounding Downs’ knee and whether or not his medicals will be a factor of any kind in teams’ draft decisions. Still, it is notable that he chose not to test in Indianapolis or at his pro day, especially for a player who isn’t viewed as having truly elite raw athleticism.<\/p>\n Now, before Vikings fans get their hopes up, it’s worth mentioning that this remains a long shot. Downs is talented enough to be a top-five pick, and if he makes it out of the top ten, it seems pretty likely that someone in the 11-17 range will have a hard time passing on him before the Vikings have a chance to draft him. But it’s not impossible. And it’s also worth considering the idea that Minnesota could trade up a few spots if he starts to slide.<\/p>\n If the Vikings were to somehow find a way to land Downs, he would be an incredibly fun addition to Brian Flores’ defense. After beginning his career as a top-ten recruit in the country at Alabama, Downs transferred to Ohio State for his sophomore season and was a two-time All-American. He’s racked up 16 TFLs, 6 INTs, 12 passes defended, and 3 forced fumbles in his three seasons, despite opposing offenses trying to avoid him as much as possible.<\/p>\n Caleb Downs text book open field tackle on Malachi Toney pic.twitter.com\/YaECzqYjzS<\/a><\/p>\n