{"id":854426,"date":"2026-04-05T02:44:49","date_gmt":"2026-04-05T02:44:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/854426\/"},"modified":"2026-04-05T02:44:49","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T02:44:49","slug":"the-pie-chart-of-options-at-the-fourth-overall-pick-in-the-2026-nfl-draft","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/854426\/","title":{"rendered":"The pie chart of options at the fourth overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft"},"content":{"rendered":"

I spoke with Titans coaches and executives at the annual Owners Meetings this week. Here is where I\u2019m at on their first round pick with just a couple weeks left.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tJan 29, 2026; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans general manager Mike Borgonzi and Tennessee Titans head coach Robert Saleh holds up the Titans jersey during the press conference at Ascension Saint Thomas Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images<\/p>\n

The last stop on the train of clues from coaches, GM\u2019s and owners is the NFL\u2019s annual Owners Meetings this week. As I leave sunny Phoenix having spent the past three days talking to important people across the league, now feels like the right time to update where I\u2019m at on the Titans\u2019 first overall draft pick.<\/p>\n

This cycle has been dominated by weighing RB Jeremiyah Love against the top three EDGE prospects in this class: Arvell Reese, David Bailey, and Rueben Bain. After talking to as many people as I can about where the Titans might go, here is my pie chart of odds I see for Tennessee at 4.<\/p>\n

My odds for Titans at fourth overall in the 2026 NFL Draft<\/p>\n

Arvell Reese\/David Bailey: 50%<\/p>\n

I\u2019m lumping Reese and Bailey into the same bucket because, first of all, there\u2019s no chance both of them are there at 4 overall. Between the Jets who we fully expect to take one of these two players, and the Cardinals who could arguably justify adding EDGE easier than they could justify taking an OT, in no world are both of these players still on the board at 4. That\u2019s ok, and I think the Titans would prioritize either. I came into the Owners Meetings thinking the Titans would take one of these guys if they\u2019re there, and I leave more emboldened in that take.<\/p>\n

Jeremiyah Love: 35%<\/p>\n

This is probably 5-10 percentage points higher than I came into the meetings thinking. , regardless of what position they play, certainly perks one\u2019s ears up. Love is the best or second best player on just about every board I\u2019ve seen, and I certainly think he\u2019s the top football player in this class.<\/p>\n

And yet, this doesn\u2019t ensure Love will be the pick by any means. I still don\u2019t feel like a running back at fourth overall is in Mike Borgonzi\u2019s nature. But if you asked me today what the most likely scenario at picks 1-3 is, I am comfortably saying Mendoza-Reese-Bailey, in some order at least. I\u2019ll be at least a tad surprised at this point if both Reese and Bailey aren\u2019t gone by 4. Which means ladies and gentlemen, start your Titans engines! In this scenario, I really still don\u2019t have a strong feel for how things will go! I think Love is the most likely outcome, but I cannot honestly say I\u2019m comfortable with that prediction yet based on all of my digging so far.<\/p>\n

Rueben Bain: 10%<\/p>\n

A 1-in-10 chance is the best I\u2019m willing to offer the Rueben Bain hive after the owners meetings. The only reason I\u2019m not giving him longer odds is because of how many glowing things I heard from Titans people both on and off the record. Titans brass seems to think he won\u2019t have an issue lining up as a wide nine EDGE in the NFL, even despite his length and speed shortcomings. I can\u2019t say I totally agree with that, but fair enough! Maybe they see him differently than most of the draft community does!<\/p>\n

And yet, I just don\u2019t buy this as an ideal fit. There are reasons both on and off the field that give me real pause. I don\u2019t think he fits (based on the role I think he ultimately settles into) seamlessly onto this Titans roster as currently constructed, at least if you want him to be a real starter out of the gates. I think Bain goes in the back-half of the top-10, and unless the Titans find a trade partner, they probably won\u2019t be taking him.<\/p>\n

Sonny Styles: 3%<\/p>\n

My favorite theory at the moment is that the Titans\u2019 insistence on taking the best available football player at four is actually a soft-launch of the Styles selection. Styles is the best player in this class according to some, and he suffers from the same devalued-position discussion that Love does. But middle linebacker is arguably even less impactful than running back, and the recent history of top-prospect hit rate at these positions are two different extremes. Running backs are safe, and linebackers seemingly aren\u2019t! Even though I think Styles is on a different level.<\/p>\n

Carnell Tate: 2%<\/p>\n

I\u2019m still giving Tate a 2% chance for two reasons: one, I think everybody was wrong to write him off as a possibility for this team during combine week. he\u2019s a top prosect who I think will be a very good player in the NFL. But second and more importantly, I think it\u2019s funny that after all of this it could still just be the Ohio State receiver. So there is a part of me rooting for this longshot.<\/p>\n

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Tennessee Titans News<\/p>\n

I pressed Mike Borgonzi on premium players vs. premium positions, and his answer was illuminating.<\/p>\n

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Tennessee Titans News<\/p>\n

If Jahmyr Gibbs is the closest comparison for Jeremiyah Love, Dan Campbell makes it crystal clear how worthy he is to be a high first round pick.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"I spoke with Titans coaches and executives at the annual Owners Meetings this week. Here is where I\u2019m…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":854427,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2061],"tags":[4955,7,7805,3403,6,526,394,2411,527],"class_list":{"0":"post-854426","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-tennessee-titans","8":"tag-2026-nfl-draft","9":"tag-football","10":"tag-jeremiyah-love","11":"tag-mike-borgonzi","12":"tag-nfl","13":"tag-tennessee","14":"tag-tennessee-titans","15":"tag-tennesseetitans","16":"tag-titans"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116349813636667380","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854426","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=854426"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854426\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/854427"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=854426"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=854426"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=854426"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}