{"id":862848,"date":"2026-04-10T04:45:47","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T04:45:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/862848\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T04:45:47","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T04:45:47","slug":"using-ai-to-project-the-broncos-draft-board","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/862848\/","title":{"rendered":"Using AI to project the Broncos\u2019 draft board?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Saw this post where someone ran AI analysis<\/a> on Dan Brugler\u2019s draft prospect list called \u2018The Beast\u2019 to find injury or off-the-field concerns. While the results were a mixed bag, I could tell the user was a bit of a novice using AI systems. But it was certainly a good start on something like that. I use AI every day at my day job as I work in tech, so I figured why not try something similar but with a Denver Broncos focus?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m in the early phases still and have a few more days to go before I\u2019m even ready to proceed with publishing any results, but I have some early preliminary data and methodology that I figured wouldn\u2019t hurt to share with the MHR community and get some feedback. Maybe I can improve the methodology from member feedback before running it all the way through\u2026<\/p>\n

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More on that at the end of the Roundup. Let\u2019s get to the news and other Broncos\u2019 happenings first.<\/p>\n

Broncos daily recap<\/p>\n

What is the best way for the Broncos to approach the 2026 NFL Draft?<\/a>
With no first-round pick on the board, Denver\u2019s draft won\u2019t really start until pick No. 62, but that might not be a bad thing in a class that\u2019s loaded with Day 2 depth rather than top-heavy first-round talent. The Broncos\u2019 recent track record with second-rounders \u2014 Nik Bonitto becoming an All-Pro edge rusher, Marvin Mims earning back-to-back All-Pro return honors, and RJ Harvey leading all rookies with 12 touchdowns in 2025 \u2014 suggests the front office knows how to find impact players on Day 2, whether they stand pat, move up, or trade back. The priority this time around should be finding someone who can step in and contribute immediately to a roster built for a Super Bowl push.<\/p>\n

Under the radar<\/p>\n

Our own Joe Mahoney dropped an interesting post today. Bo Nix faced man coverage the 5th-lease in the NFL, but was 4% better vs man over zone. Interesting.<\/p>\n

From the FEED<\/p>\n

Rpek dropped a few \u201cGotta have it\u201d posts. Check them out!<\/p>\n

Can AI predict Payton and Paton?<\/p>\n

Okay, let\u2019s down to it. First, I had AI investigate each and every draft George Paton and Sean Payton have had together, but then threw in two previous drafts before they joined forces. Their joint drafts obviously have higher correlation. After an exhaustive review of each drafted player in those seven drafts, which took a few sessions to complete, there were several key points of reference that helped identify what the duos draft tendencies followed.<\/p>\n

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Methodology: <\/p>\n

Cataloged seven draft classes across Payton\u2019s and Paton\u2019s careers, plus nine shared-era UDFA signings<\/p>\n

Weighted shared Broncos drafts (3x) higher than pre-partnership classes (1x) and UDFAs (1.5x)<\/p>\n

Researched every historical pick\u2019s pre-draft profile as it existed at the time of selection \u2013 Extracted weighted tendencies across physical, athletic, production, school, injury, character, and positional dimensions<\/p>\n

Derived a 100-point scoring rubric empirically from the tendency data, not assumed up front<\/p>\n

Applied hard gates for character red flags, significant medical history, roster duplication, and small-school validation<\/p>\n

Audited the current Broncos roster to identify complementary gaps and duplication risks by position<\/p>\n

Back-tested the rubric against actual historical picks to verify accuracy<\/p>\n

Scored and tiered every 2026 prospect against the validated rubric<\/p>\n

Using that data and methodology, the goal now is to review each and every position group from Dane Brugler\u2019s beast of a draft prospect list<\/a>. The goal was to put players into tiers that likely fit the Payton\/Paton mold. So far, I\u2019ve completed a test run of the running back position tonight and the results were interesting\u2026<\/p>\n

IMPORTANT NOTE: This analysis is SPECIFIC to the Broncos and their current draft capital. Not an actual big board for ALL teams.<\/p>\n

Running Back Tier 1 \u2014 Highest Correlation (A, Bullseye)<\/p>\n

Mike Washington Jr. (Arkansas, 3rd) \u2014 6\u20191\u2033\/223 bruiser with class-best 4.33 speed, SEC production, Senior Bowl attendee, quiet-worker profile Paton loves; perfectly fills the bruiser gap and serves as Dobbins-insurance\/Harvey complement the room desperately needs.<\/p>\n

Kaytron Allen (Penn State, 4th) \u2014 4-year 5\u201911\u2033\/216 starter, 4,000+ career yds (school record), blitz-pickup chops, Senior Bowl, zero missed games; exactly the between-the-tackles workload back (+3 complementary gap) to keep Dobbins fresh without duplicating Harvey.<\/p>\n

Running Back Tier 2 \u2014 Solid Candidates (B, Strong Fit)<\/p>\n

Kaelon Black (Indiana, 5th-6th) \u2014 5\u20199\u2033\/211 muscled-up \u201cFreaks List\u201d alum with 4.45 speed and legit pass-pro tape; undersized in height but plays like a bruiser, fills gap as a low-cost power complement to Harvey.<\/p>\n

Jam Miller (Alabama, 6th-7th) \u2014 5\u201910\u2033\/209 Bama-trained \u201cbest worker on team\u201d with 4.42 speed and ST value; between-the-tackles build fills complementary gap, though 2025 injury-driven production drop keeps him out of Tier 1.<\/p>\n

Le\u2019Veon Moss (Texas A&M, 6th) \u2014 5\u201911\u2033\/211 SEC downhill grinder with red-zone production and strong character; +3 bruiser gap fit, though torn ACL + ankle issues pile onto an already injury-fragile backfield.<\/p>\n

Nicholas Singleton (Penn State, 5th) \u2014 6\u20190\u2033\/219 with home-run speed and KR value; size fits the complementary gap, but tunnel-vision inside running, pass-pro issues, and Senior Bowl foot surgery push him down.<\/p>\n

Roman Hemby (Indiana, 7th) \u2014 6\u20190\u2033\/208 four-year Maryland\/Indiana starter, 129 career catches, low fumble rate; tweener build is roster-neutral and receiving volume plus STs give Payton a useful chess piece without duplicating Harvey.<\/p>\n

Adam Randall (Clemson, 7th-FA) \u2014 6\u20193\u2033\/232 former WR with 4.50 speed, KR experience, Senior Bowl captain; unique big-body frame fills +3 bruiser gap, ex-receiver hands give him a Payton-style third-down-plus-size profile.<\/p>\n

Running Back Tier 3 \u2014 Maybes (C, Role Fit)<\/p>\n

Emmett Johnson (Nebraska, 3rd-4th) \u2014 5\u201910\u2033\/205 All-American with 46 catches in 2025 and crisp routes; \u22122 soft duplicate of Harvey\/McLaughlin, but Big Ten RB of the Year production and receiving chops keep him relevant as Dobbins insurance.<\/p>\n

Jadarian Price (Notre Dame, 2nd-3rd) \u2014 5\u201911\u2033\/203 4.49 change-of-pace\/KR specialist with zero college starts; \u22122 soft duplicate of Harvey (same school, same archetype, same KR role) drops him out of Tier 2 despite R2-R3 grade.<\/p>\n

Chip Trayanum (Toledo, 7th-FA) \u2014 5\u201911\u2033\/224 multi-school vet with 4.50 speed and LB background; fills complementary bruiser gap and the pass-pro\/STs toughness fits Payton\u2019s depth-back mold.<\/p>\n

CJ Donaldson (Ohio State, FA) \u2014 6\u20192\u2033\/236 all-gas downhill grinder, pass-pro upside, zero drops past two years; +3 bruiser gap fit, but 4.61 speed and 3.8 ypc senior year cap the upside.<\/p>\n

Jonah Coleman (Washington, 4th-5th) \u2014 5\u20198\u2033\/220 Academic All-American with pass-pro value Payton loves; height-based soft duplicate of Harvey even with the bruiser weight, and senior YPC slide hurts.<\/p>\n

J\u2019Mari Taylor (Virginia, 6th) \u2014 5\u201910\u2033\/197 former walk-on, productive zone runner with Senior Bowl invite; \u22122 soft duplicate of Harvey, though bowling-ball short-yardage finishing gives a partial gap credit.<\/p>\n

Barika Kpeenu (NDSU, FA) \u2014 5\u201910\u2033\/213 FCS workhorse, 20 rushing TDs, Jerome Ford comp; fills complementary gap as low-cost bruiser depth, but 4.66 speed at FCS level makes him a fit-not-priority.<\/p>\n

Noah Whittington (Oregon, 6th-7th) \u2014 5\u20198\u2033\/205 tough zone runner, strong in pass pro; \u22122 soft duplicate of Harvey\/McLaughlin, and ACL+turf toe durability compounds injury-room concern.<\/p>\n

Star Thomas (Tennessee, FA) \u2014 5\u201911\u2033\/200 multi-school transfer with 5.7 ypc in SEC backup role; \u22122 soft duplicate, but lateral creativity and no 2025 fumbles give depth-camp value.<\/p>\n

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Tier 4 \u2014 Unlikely (D\/F, Off-Profile)<\/p>\n

Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame, 1st) \u2014 Heisman finalist\/Doak Walker elite talent; hard-gated by Payton-Paton \u201cnever R1 RB\u201d history \u2014 top talent but wrong round\/position profile, not a roster-complement question.<\/p>\n

Seth McGowan (Kentucky, 6th-7th) \u2014 6\u20190\u2033\/223 would hit the bruiser gap; hard-gated by 2021 robbery\/assault arrest and Oklahoma dismissal \u2014 Paton character screen eliminates.<\/p>\n

Demond Claiborne (Wake Forest, 4th-5th) \u2014 5\u201910\u2033\/188 burner compared to \u201cdiet Achane\u201d; \u22122 soft duplicate of Harvey plus sub-190 frame, 2025 fumble issues, and soft pass-pro stack a hard \u201cno.\u201d<\/p>\n

Eli Heidenreich (Navy, 5th) \u2014 Navy \u201cSnipe Z\u201d hybrid with service-academy commitment; off-type and roster-neutral, but position-unclear fit plus Navy service obligation is a non-starter for a 2026-need draft.<\/p>\n

Max Bredeson (Michigan, 7th) \u2014 6\u20192\u2033\/252 true FB\/H-back with zero college carries; off-type for the RB room, fullback role Payton rarely employs, special-teams-only ceiling.<\/p>\n

Rahsul Faison (South Carolina, 7th-FA) \u2014 5\u201911\u2033\/206 26-year-old multi-stop JUCO vet; \u22122 soft duplicate of Harvey plus age gate (26 rookie year) plus pass-pro holes eliminate him.<\/p>\n

Jaydn Ott (Oklahoma, 7th-FA) \u2014 5\u201911\u2033\/198 former Cal star whose last two years cratered; \u22122 soft duplicate of Harvey plus explicit NFL scout questions on grit\/toughness = Paton character red flag.<\/p>\n

Robert Henry Jr. (UTSA, FA) \u2014 5\u20199\u2033\/199 one-cut vet with big-play flashes; \u22122 soft duplicate of Harvey, undersized with ball-security and high-mileage issues.<\/p>\n

Dean Connors (Houston, FA) \u2014 5\u201911\u2033\/206 three-down receiving back, 147 career catches; \u22122 soft duplicate of Harvey\/McLaughlin\/Badie \u2014 clean athlete but the room already has three of him.<\/p>\n

Desmond Reid (Pittsburgh, FA) \u2014 5\u20196\u2033\/176 Sproles-comp return specialist; \u22122 hard duplicate of Harvey\/McLaughlin \u2014 tiniest possible version of what the room already has, injury-prone on top.<\/p>\n

Cash Jones (Georgia, FA) \u2014 5\u201911\u2033\/185 Georgia walk-on, core-four ST profile; \u22122 soft duplicate of Harvey\/Badie as passing-down\/ST depth, lacks the between-tackles value the room actually needs.<\/p>\n

The results were interesting as I said, but I feel there are gaps in its methodology that need to be filled before I can run this fully on every position group. While many players fit the mold, if they were too similar in size and ability to RJ Harvey then it is unlikely we\u2019d see him get drafted by Denver. I also found it interesting that \u201cTeam Captain\u201d is a huge deal with this duo and they never draft players with character concerns.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m open to getting feedback on this initial list and maybe firm up the methodology some before the real work begins over the next week and a half. I hope to just roll with the results ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft and find out if we were even in the ballpark come draft night.<\/p>\n

It should be a fun exercise for me, anyway!<\/p>\n