{"id":864734,"date":"2026-04-12T10:39:24","date_gmt":"2026-04-12T10:39:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/864734\/"},"modified":"2026-04-12T10:39:24","modified_gmt":"2026-04-12T10:39:24","slug":"nhl-stanley-cup-playoff-matchups-current-seeds-odds-and-clinching-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/864734\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL Stanley Cup playoff matchups: Current seeds, odds and clinching scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"

Red Light newsletter\u00a0\ud83c\udfd2\u00a0| This is\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s\u00a0hockey\u00a0newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here<\/a>\u00a0to receive Red Light directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n

Good morning, hockey folks. There are just seven more days (!) and 52 games left in the NHL\u2019s regular season, which means a week from today we\u2019ll be all-in on playoff matchups and projections. Let\u2019s set the table for where the races sit after last night\u2019s jam-packed 14-game schedule<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby and the Penguins are back in the playoffs. (Luther Schlaifer \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n

Home StretchTwo more clinchers<\/p>\n

The total number of teams locked into the postseason is now up to nine.<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh\u2019s convincing 5-2 win over the Devils was enough to cement its spot, sending the Penguins back to the playoffs for the first time since 2021-22<\/a>. And the team had a defiant \u201cproved you wrong\u201d video<\/a> ready to go right away, too.<\/p>\n

Utah, meanwhile, dusted the Predators 4-1 to guarantee its first playoff berth. The Mammoth are set to go through the Pacific Division as the first wild card \u2014 and incredibly have a better record than even the division-leading Oilers.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what we know for sure at this point:<\/p>\n

In the East, the Hurricanes have clinched a playoff spot and the Metro Division, while the Sabres, Canadiens, Lightning and Penguins are all in.
\nIn the West, the Avalanche have clinched the conference and the Presidents\u2019 Trophy<\/a> as the league\u2019s top regular-season team, and the Stars, Wild and Mammoth are all in.<\/p>\n

Still fighting for the remaining spots in each conference, sorted by their current odds<\/a> of making it, are:<\/p>\n

East (three spots left)
Bruins: 98 percent
Senators: 96 percent
Flyers: 42 percent
\u2014 cutoff \u2014
Islanders: 29 percent
Blue Jackets: 22 percent
Capitals: 8 percent
Red Wings: 5 percent<\/p>\n

West (four spots left)
Oilers: 99 percent
Golden Knights: 99 percent
Ducks: 98 percent
Kings: 76 percent
\u2014 cutoff \u2014
Jets: 13 percent
Predators: 12 percent
Sharks: 3 percent<\/p>\n

So, the two final battles to watch are in the Metro and the West\u2019s second wild-card spot.<\/p>\n

East Race: The Flyers have 92 points with three games remaining, but they can be jumped by any of the Isles, Jackets or Caps, who all have the regulation wins tiebreak over Philadelphia. (Detroit can technically catch Boston and Ottawa in the Atlantic, but it appears unlikely given their schedules and the tiebreaks.)
\nWest Race: Barring a complete collapse in the Pacific, the West is basically down to seeding in that division and deciding which of the Kings, Preds, Jets or Sharks gets the right to face Colorado in Round 1. (It may not be a long trip to the playoffs for whoever pulls that off.)<\/p>\n

If the playoffs started today, these would be our matchups (based on points percentage) with league ranking in parentheses:<\/p>\n

East<\/p>\n

Buffalo (4) vs. Boston (9)
\nMontreal (5) vs. Tampa Bay (6)
\nCarolina (2) vs. Ottawa (10)
\nPittsburgh (8) vs. Philadelphia (11)<\/p>\n

West<\/p>\n

Colorado (1) vs. Los Angeles (20)
\nDallas (3) vs. Minnesota (7)
\nEdmonton (15) vs. Utah (12)
\nVegas (18) vs. Anaheim (19)<\/p>\n

If your team is missing the party, here are the latest lottery odds<\/a>, featuring a three-way tie among the Leafs, Panthers and Kraken for the fifth-to-last spot. They\u2019re all on pace for 81 points, but whoever loses out will take the \u201ccrown.\u201d<\/p>\n

That means Saturday\u2019s Leafs-Panthers game in Toronto \u2014 a rematch of the Atlantic Division final in Round 2 last year \u2014 could have big-time implications for the top of the draft, especially because Toronto\u2019s pick is only top-five protected<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Is this the end of the road for Alex Ovechkin\u2019s NHL career? (Scott Taetsch \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Retirement WatchThe end for Ovi?<\/p>\n

With the Capitals three points back of a playoff spot and needing to jump a few teams in the East, it certainly appears Washington will be on the outside looking in. (Its playoff chances are at a measly 8 percent, according to our probabilities<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

That could mean that the Capitals\u2019 next three games are the last we\u2019ll see of Alexander Ovechkin in the NHL.<\/p>\n

Ovechkin, 40, quelled some of the speculation earlier this week by saying he\u2019s deferring his retirement decision<\/a> to the summer. He\u2019s the third-oldest player in the league, behind Brent Burns and Corey Perry, and this season has clearly been a slog for everyone in D.C. Plus, Ovechkin is in the final year of his contract, with little extension talk happening.<\/p>\n

Sidney Crosby, 38, weighed in today on Ovechkin\u2019s big decision in this great story<\/a> from our Josh Yohe, including the following musings on their relationship over the years:<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcac \u201cYeah, it would be so weird if he\u2019s not around anymore,\u201d Crosby said. \u201cIt would be weird, especially because we\u2019ve (almost) always been in the same division. We see each other so often. We came into the league together. So, really, it\u2019s all we\u2019ve ever known. There have been changes. You play with a lot of different guys over the course of 20 years. But for me, seeing him a few times a year, and seeing him in the playoffs, has always been a constant.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Capitals and Penguins will face off in back-to-back, home-and-home games this weekend, starting tomorrow<\/a> in Pittsburgh, so it\u2019ll be worth tuning in for some good ol\u2019 Member Berries as two of the best players in league history go head-to-head two more (final?) times. Also:<\/p>\n

Sean Gentille writes about how the Capitals will try to turn things around, and if that might offer an incentive<\/a> for Ovechkin to come back.
\nPierre LeBrun sat down with Capitals GM Chris Patrick<\/a> to discuss where Washington goes from here, given the franchise has just one playoff series win since its Cup title eight years ago.<\/p>\n

The Capitals\u2019 season finale is Tuesday in Columbus, so all eyes will be on how the NHL\u2019s all-time leading goal scorer<\/a> handles what could be his last few games over the next five days. (Anyone else feel old?)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Artur Akhtyamov. (Wendell Cruz \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udca1 MirTrivia Question<\/p>\n

Early in last night\u2019s game, Toronto Maple Leafs rookie Artur Akhtyamov<\/a> looked like he might take a run at the record for saves made in a goalie\u2019s first NHL start, as he stopped 39 pucks in a 5-3 loss to the New York Islanders. Toronto was outshot 44-16 in the game, including 24-3 (!?) in the first period.<\/p>\n

The record of 49 saves in a debut start is held by two Canadian goalies: <\/p>\n

An undersized netminder who did it for the Los Angeles Kings in 1998 before going on to play 365 NHL games, mostly for Detroit and St. Louis.
\nAnother goalie who is still active (primarily in the AHL this year) and pulled off the feat while playing for the Edmonton Oilers in 2015.<\/p>\n

Can you name them? Answers at the bottom.<\/p>\n

Coast to Coast<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd00 This story on a new social media account that tracks and publishes NHL players\u2019 follows and unfollows<\/a> on Instagram is wild. What a world we live in.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcc8 Panthers analytics whiz Sunny Mehta is in demand these days, as the Leafs and Devils have him lined up for interviews for their GM vacancies. And he\u2019s not the only Florida exec<\/a> in demand.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfc6 The NCAA\u2019s Frozen Four is in Las Vegas this year, and Wisconsin<\/a> and Denver have punched their tickets to Saturday\u2019s final with big wins last night, including Denver\u2019s double overtime instant classic<\/a> victory over star-studded Michigan.<\/p>\n

\ud83e\uddd2\ud83c\udffc The No. 1 prospect pool in the NHL this season? It\u2019s the Chicago Blackhawks<\/a>. See where your team ranked here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83e\udd14 Which defense pairings have been the best and worst<\/a> in the NHL this season?<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcf0 Netminder Linus Ullmark opened up about his trying season in Ottawa<\/a> as the Senators continue their impressive playoff push.<\/p>\n

\ud83e\udda3 Debate at The Athletic HQ this week: Should Utah\u2019s brand new Zammoth<\/a> actually be called the Mammboni?<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfcb\ufe0f Awards season is on the horizon, so the Power Rankings Guys dished out a fake award for each team. Oh, there\u2019s a shake-up in the rankings\u2019 top five<\/a>, too.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfa4 In the latest episode of \u201cThe Athletic Hockey Show,\u201d our hosts dig in on Connor McDavid\u2019s growing case for the Hart Trophy<\/a> and break down Scott Wheeler\u2019s prospect pool ranking<\/a> series.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Laurent Brossoit with the Sharks. (Walter Tychnowicz \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n

MirTrivia Answer<\/p>\n

The rookie goalies who made 49 saves in their first NHL starts are Manny Legace and Laurent Brossoit, who has played one game for the San Jose Sharks this season in a remarkable comeback from injury.<\/p>\n

Like Akhtyamov, neither won those games despite their heroics in the crease.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udceb Love Red Light? Check out The Athletic\u2019s other newsletters<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Red Light newsletter\u00a0\ud83c\udfd2\u00a0| This is\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s\u00a0hockey\u00a0newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here\u00a0to receive Red Light directly in your inbox. Good morning, hockey…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":864735,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[7,6,84,4475],"class_list":{"0":"post-864734","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl-playoffs","8":"tag-football","9":"tag-nfl","10":"tag-nfl-playoffs","11":"tag-nhl"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116391312702474035","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/864734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=864734"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/864734\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/864735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=864734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=864734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=864734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}