{"id":867383,"date":"2026-04-16T01:10:37","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T01:10:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/867383\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T01:10:37","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T01:10:37","slug":"the-nhls-playoff-field-is-set-let-the-chaos-begin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/867383\/","title":{"rendered":"The NHL\u2019s playoff field is set. Let the chaos begin"},"content":{"rendered":"

Red Light newsletter\u00a0\ud83c\udfd2\u00a0| This is\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s\u00a0hockey\u00a0newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here<\/a>\u00a0to receive Red Light directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n

Good morning to everyone, but especially Joe Bowen, who called his final game in Toronto last night. What a legend \u2014 and a nice guy, too, even if you blatantly stole one of his most famous calls for your stupid blog. Holy Mackinaw<\/a>, let\u2019s get started \u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Drew Doughty and the Los Angeles Kings are playoff-bound. (Steph Chambers \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Clarity<\/p>\n

Last night, the playoff picture continued to come into focus, we had a potential Western Conference final preview in Edmonton, Patrick Kane got his 1,400th point and Jonathan Quick played his final NHL game<\/a>. Take a breath and get ready to hop back over the boards, because there are three days left and lots to still figure out.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s left to play for?<\/p>\n

We\u2019re down to just three nights left on the regular season schedule, and our first batch of teams will hit 82 games tonight. Let\u2019s get you caught up on what\u2019s going to matter between now and the final buzzer on Thursday:<\/p>\n

Playoff spots \u2014 We have our field of 16<\/a>. The Flyers are in after beating the Hurricanes last night, eliminating both Columbus and Washington to clinch the East\u2019s last invite<\/a>. And the Kings followed that with a win of their own, which was enough to clinch a spot when the Predators lost in regulation.
\nSeeding and home ice \u2014 While they don\u2019t matter as much as they once did, they\u2019re still worth watching. Carolina wrapped up top spot in the East last night, while Buffalo has clinched the Atlantic. We know the No. 2 versus No. 3 matchups in both divisions \u2014 Flyers versus Penguins and Lightning versus Canadiens \u2014 but home ice is still up for grabs. The Central is locked down, with the Avalanche in top spot and the Stars hosting the Wild. But the Pacific is chaos, with the Knights, Oilers and Ducks all still in the running for top spot and the Kings within striking distance to move up out of the wild card. Yes, that means we could get Kings versus Oilers again. No, nobody wants this, but here we are.
\nAwards and scoring races \u2014 It looks like Connor McDavid will capture his sixth Art Ross, as he holds a four-point lead over Nikita Kucherov with one game left for both. But the Rocket Richard<\/a> is still in play, with Nathan MacKinnon owning a one-goal lead on the late-charging Cole Caufield, who\u2019s trying to become the first Canadiens player to win the award named after a franchise legend. MacKinnon also holds a game in hand, although without much to play for, the Avalanche may prefer to rest him. As for the voted awards, most are still up in the air<\/a>, especially the Hart and Norris. Those are full-season awards, and the last few games shouldn\u2019t count any more than the rest. But we know that\u2019s not always how it works, and a strong closing push could kick up just enough recency bias to decide a close race.
\nLottery odds \u2014 The Canucks have last place<\/a> wrapped up, but just about all the other spots are in play. Also, it would be so much better if we had the Gold Plan<\/a> and fans could cheer for their teams to win. Ah well.
\nMilestones and nice round numbers \u2014 McDavid needs two goals in the finale (assuming he plays) to get to 50 goals for just the second time. Martin Ne\u010das and David Pastr\u0148\u00e1k are each one point away from 100. And tonight\u2019s finale for the Avalanche should be Brock Nelson\u2019s 1,000th career game. Also: Morgan Geekie needs one goal tonight to finish the season with exactly 39, which would be interesting<\/a>.
\nThat thing with the Mammoth \u2014 It\u2019s still alive with two games to go. Nobody speak of it<\/a>.
\n\ud83d\udca1 Trivia Time<\/p>\n

One thing you love to see from a star player at playoff time is consistent production. Well, one name stands out in that category.<\/p>\n

This player is the leading scorer on one of the teams that\u2019s already clinched a playoff spot. He\u2019ll be making his eighth playoff run, and in the previous seven he\u2019s finished with between 11 and 15 points each and every year. In fact, he had exactly 11 or 12 points in each of his first six postseasons, before a career-high 15 last year. Not bad at all, and plenty consistent, although it\u2019s worth noting that this player has yet to win the Cup or even play in a Final.<\/p>\n

Can you name the player we\u2019re looking for? The answer will be down below.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Ladies and gentlemen, the Buffalo Sabres. (Joe Hrycych \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

SpecificityLet\u2019s get odd \ud83d\udd2e<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll be honest, it\u2019s been a rough year down at oddly specific predictions headquarters. We\u2019ve still got a few irons in the fire from this year\u2019s list<\/a> but will need some luck to hit on anything impressive. Some would take this as a sign to give up. Others would insist on doubling down. You can figure out which direction this is headed.<\/p>\n

Here we go, with a half-dozen oddly specific predictions for the playoffs:<\/p>\n

1. It seems like there\u2019s always one series in which the underdog wins Game 1, everyone freaks out, and then the favorite rolls to an easy win in five games. Colorado Avalanche, we\u2019re all looking in your direction.<\/p>\n

2. The series everyone is most excited about is the one we\u2019ve known would happen for weeks, if not months: Wild versus Stars. The bad news is that the series is going to end in a sweep. The slightly better news is that at least three of those games will go into overtime.<\/p>\n

3. Speaking of overtime, we\u2019re going to get a really long one this year. But not until one of the openers in Round 2.<\/p>\n

4. The Pittsburgh Penguins have been a great story, but when it comes to their playoff run they\u2019ll be here for a good time, not for a long time. But it will be a good time, because we\u2019re going to get a Sidney Crosby hat trick \u2014 something we\u2019ve only seen three times in his 200 career playoff games.<\/p>\n

5. Only two Montreal Canadiens have scored a hat trick in the playoffs since their 1993 Cup win. (That would be Andrei Kostitsyn in 2010 and Rene Bourque in 2014, it goes without saying.) This year, they\u2019ll match that total in one spring, as two different Canadiens pull off the Hab-trick.<\/p>\n

6. Finally, you know I have to have something positive for everyone\u2019s favorite team<\/a>. So, let\u2019s say that the Buffalo Sabres earn their first postseason win in 15 years when Josh Doan does something that his dad, Shane, managed only once in 21 seasons: scores an OT goal. Hey, there\u2019s just something about those tough Buffalo wingers with monosyllabic names<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Coast to Coast<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd25 If you somehow missed it, Chris Pronger has finally told the story of what went wrong in Edmonton, and it\u2019s \u2026 well, probably not what you thought<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc54 James Mirtle, Chris Johnston and Michael Russo\u2019s survey of agents<\/a> reveals some interesting thoughts about the league\u2019s teams, including which are run the best and worst and which are the hardest to deal with.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc76 Scott Wheeler released his list of the 100 best drafted prospects<\/a> in the world (one of which will be in the playoffs), plus his 20 top drafted goalies<\/a> (reinforcements on the way for the Red Wings).<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udccb Does your team have what it takes to win in the playoffs? Find out with our Cup contender checklists for the East<\/a> and West<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udea8 Other Sean spent the week tracking what could be Alex Ovechkin\u2019s final NHL run<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udf99\ufe0f We\u2019ve got a two-fer at \u201cThe Athletic Hockey Show\u201d: Ovechkin retirement talk plus Kevin Kurz on the Flyers on Monday, plus a special Tuesday edition breaking down Wheeler\u2019s prospect ranking. Watch\/listen to both episodes here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Watch out for Jake Sanderson and the Ottawa Senators. (Rich Graessle \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Capital Punishment \u2744\ufe0fUnderdog nobody wants to face<\/p>\n

The Ottawa Senators have clinched a playoff spot, and there\u2019s only one thing anyone wants to know: Are they bringing the gladiator guy<\/a> back? But if there\u2019s a second thing people want to know, it\u2019s probably this: Just how good are they?<\/p>\n

I think they\u2019re pretty good, as you\u2019d know if you heard my \u201cThe Senators are going to win the Metro\u201d prediction from last week\u2019s pod. (I will never give up on the dream of the NHL\u2019s weird crossover playoff format resulting in a team winning a division they are not in. It hasn\u2019t happened yet, but maybe this is the year.) But I wanted to know more, so I reached out to Sens writer Julian McKenzie<\/a> for his two cents.<\/p>\n

The Senators were tied for last in the East in mid-January, with their playoff odds slipping under 20 percent. What changed?<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcac McKenzie: \u201cThey changed their penalty-kill coach from Nolan Baumgartner to Mike Yeo, giving them a fresh voice. Even if the players say there\u2019s not that much difference in how they run their PK, it\u2019s clearly been a success by operating at over 83 percent since. The Senators got James Reimer to back up Linus Ullmark, and he\u2019s helped stabilize their goaltending. And Ullmark has been on his game since returning from leave. The Senators\u2019 ability to generate and limit chances at five-on-five has always been their game. But their goaltending and PK are finally working in their favour.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Senators had their share of drama this year, between Ullmark\u2019s absence, the American Olympic team fallout, and the Tkachuk family podcast<\/a>. What\u2019s your sense for where this team is at as far as the room?<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcac McKenzie: \u201cIt\u2019s all \u2018white noise\u2019 to them, apparently. Truthfully, they\u2019ve pushed through the \u2018ugly\u2019 of January and February, and it feels like they can just play without many distractions. Jake Sanderson even said there\u2019s \u201925 best friends\u2019 in the dressing room. The mood around the players has clearly changed in recent days and weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n

Finally, just how dangerous can this team be in the playoffs? I had them seventh in yesterday\u2019s ranking<\/a>, the highest of any wild-card team. Is that too optimistic? Or maybe not enough?<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcac McKenzie: \u201cThe Sens\u2019 style makes them a tough out for anybody. Even if they draw the Eastern Conference-leading Carolina Hurricanes, who play a similar style, there\u2019s upset potential. (Carolina\u2019s goaltending appears suspect). The Senators also having Sanderson and Thomas Chabot back healthy will power them in any playoff series.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Gary Bettman dons a ballcap. (Jon Levy \/ AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n

No Dumb Questions<\/p>\n

We believe that in hockey, as in life, there are no dumb questions. So if you have something you\u2019ve always wondered about the sport, ask away by emailing us at redlight@theathletic.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Tip of the cap \ud83e\udde2<\/p>\n

Can a player sign for a percentage of the cap? So, for example, rather than signing for $X for six years \u2026 Can they sign for X% of the salary cap for the same term? \u2014 Ian A.<\/p>\n

Great question, Ian. The answer is no, they cannot.<\/p>\n

When a player signs a multi-year contract, the actual dollar amount can rise and fall, subject to certain limitations in the CBA. Those limitations have evolved over time, as the league works to eliminate quasi-loopholes like those dreaded back-diving contracts that took over the early 2010s. But to this day, teams and players have some freedom to get creative with how dollars are allocated, both in terms of which years they\u2019re paid and whether they come in the form of signing bonuses or standard salary.<\/p>\n

But the cap hit? That\u2019s non-negotiable. Excluding bonuses that carry over to future seasons and a handful of very rare exceptions involving 35-plus contracts<\/a> or contracts signed after a season has begun, the cap hit a deal carries is basically total dollars divided by years. And that amount stays the same for each and every year of the contract.<\/p>\n

So, when, for example, Nick Schmaltz signs an eight-year extension that pays out a total dollar value of $64 million, his cap hit is $64 million divided by eight, for a cap hit of $8 million for all eight years. There\u2019s no flexibility to spread it out differently, even if the team or player (or both) wanted to.<\/p>\n

Why? I\u2019m not sure the league has ever specifically addressed it, but I\u2019d assume they want to avoid a situation where teams could take advantage of a more flexible system by squeezing extra dollars into years where they know their cap spending will be low.<\/p>\n

Take the Blackhawks and Connor Bedard, who need to work out an extension this summer. Chicago is still in a rebuild phase, so should they be allowed to cram more of Bedard\u2019s (presumably large) cap hit into the early years of the deal, leaving more room for down the line when they\u2019re aiming to be Cup contenders? Maybe! That\u2019s how it works in the NFL, where players can negotiate their contracts to help their teams fit under the cap. But the NHL likes to keep things simple, so they force the cap hits to stay consistent through the life of a contract.<\/p>\n

Many have suggested that a percentage-based system would be better, while avoiding the kind of cap manipulation from our Bedard system. I think they have a good case, especially in a rising cap world<\/a>. But for now, and at least until the next CBA in a few years, the scenario you\u2019re describing is not an option.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Sebastian Aho. (Steph Chambers \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Trivia Answer<\/p>\n

Our super-consistent playoff performer is Carolina\u2019s Sebastian Aho, who\u2019s scored in the double-digits in each of the last seven playoff years.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udceb Love Red Light? Check out The Athletic\u2019s other newsletters<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Red Light newsletter\u00a0\ud83c\udfd2\u00a0| This is\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s\u00a0hockey\u00a0newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here\u00a0to receive Red Light directly in your inbox. Good morning to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":867384,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[7,6,84,4475],"class_list":{"0":"post-867383","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl-playoffs","8":"tag-football","9":"tag-nfl","10":"tag-nfl-playoffs","11":"tag-nhl"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116411726170367559","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/867383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=867383"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/867383\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/867384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=867383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=867383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=867383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}