{"id":870111,"date":"2026-04-19T18:27:37","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T18:27:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/870111\/"},"modified":"2026-04-19T18:27:37","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T18:27:37","slug":"dexter-lawrence-trade-has-scary-implications-about-the-drafts-weakness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/870111\/","title":{"rendered":"Dexter Lawrence trade has scary implications about the draft\u2019s weakness"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Los Angeles Rams didn\u2019t make an offer for Dexter Lawrence that we know of<\/a>, but even if they had dangled the 13th overall pick to the New York Giants for him the answer still would have been \u201cNo\u201d. Not even the 13th overall pick in 2026 draft for Lawrence.<\/p>\n

That says more about the 2026 draft than it does about Lawrence.<\/p>\n

The Cincinnati Bengals traded the 10th overall pick to the Giants for Lawrence on Saturday and then immediately gave the star nose tackle a one-year, $28 million extension. It wasn\u2019t the $100 million contract that many were expecting, just a little bit more security for the big fella.<\/p>\n

The contract begs to ask the question, \u201cIf that\u2019s all he wanted, then why didn\u2019t the Giants just pay him?\u201d<\/p>\n

In most years the answer would be that the 10th overall pick is so valuable, but that\u2019s also why those picks never get traded for players: The last non-quarterback to be traded for a top-10 pick was 21 years ago.<\/p>\n

Yet more evidence now that most NFL teams consider the first round of the 2026 draft to be historically bad.<\/p>\n

What context clues do we have to prove that?<\/p>\n

The Bengals would rather have Lawrence than pick 10<\/p>\n

Being the NFL\u2019s best nose tackle is sort of like being the best actor on UPN. It\u2019s an accomplishment, but there\u2019s going to be some question of relative value.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t get me wrong, Lawrence is a beast. He\u2019s also turning 29 this year and didn\u2019t get to 1 sack last season. Typically, teams are able to draft better pass rushers than Dexter Lawrence in the top-10 of a given draft class.<\/p>\n

This makes it sound like someone like Rueben Bain, most people\u2019s EDGE3 in the class, isn\u2019t that enticing because otherwise it would be sensible for the Bengals to simply wheel and deal their way up a few spots if necessary. Or take EDGE4.<\/p>\n

Why don\u2019t I say to take a defensive tackle?<\/p>\n

Because there are none in this class worthy of an early pick. We might not see a defensive tackle drafted on day one.<\/p>\n

In that sense, trading for Dexter Lawrence makes sense because of the defensive tackle class, but the 10th overall pick? Many teams wouldn\u2019t draft that player top-10 even if he was a 22-year-old rookie with the same skillset.<\/p>\n

The Rams traded a first for Trent McDuffie<\/p>\n

No, it\u2019s not an unreasonable request for a two-time All-Pro cornerback who is 25. Although McDuffie is not the same as acquiring Jalen Ramsey (for two first round picks), he\u2019s arguably worth a late first round pick.<\/p>\n

The biggest impasse there is that the Rams also had to make him the highest-paid cornerback in the league. And he might have a bit of an injury concern.<\/p>\n

If the draft had cornerbacks like McDuffie in the late first (himself just the 21st overall pick), would they have rather just drafted one? Perhaps not, given that you don\u2019t know what you\u2019re going to get or how quickly he\u2019ll be ready for the NFL.<\/p>\n

But teams were not readily giving away first round picks for players in the last four years. Now for this particular class it\u2019s been handing them out like candy.<\/p>\n

Falcons knew back in 2025<\/p>\n

The Falcons traded their 2026 first round pick to the Rams all the way back in 2025 when they wanted to move up for James Pearce.<\/p>\n

Nope. Just to get into pick 26.<\/p>\n

The fact that the Rams finagled a 2026 first round pick for that pick tells us that the Rams were happy to get it and Atlanta was willing to part with it, when in the past a second round pick could have been enough.<\/p>\n

The Jaguars felt it too, trading their 2026 first round pick to move up a few spots for Travis Hunter.<\/p>\n

They respected Hunter a lot obviously, but the move screams \u201cWe need to get a player now because we\u2019re not seeing anything coming down the pipeline in a year.\u201d<\/p>\n

Colts traded two for Sauce Gardner<\/p>\n

Packers traded two for Micah Parsons<\/p>\n

Two of the trades we saw for players last year ended up giving a 2026 first and a 2027 first rounder. A 2026 first wouldn\u2019t be enough for Sauce Gardner even though his last two years weren\u2019t nearly as good as the first two.<\/p>\n

Trading two firsts for Parsons does make sense. But the Cowboys also got Kenny Clark in that deal.<\/p>\n

To what degree is Dexter Lawrence better than Kenny Clark, by the way?<\/p>\n

10% better? 20%? The \u201cthrow-in\u201d for the Packers-Cowboys trade was almost the same as the guy who got the 10th overall pick traded for him. There\u2019s some miscalculation there. Unless the 10th overall pick is less valuable than normal.<\/p>\n

The Broncos traded a 1 for Jaylen Waddle<\/p>\n

Just remember that as folks are debating who the best steal is between Denzel Boston or Omar Cooper or whomever, the Broncos didn\u2019t want any part of that. We haven\u2019t seen Waddle be that great in a few years, and maybe that\u2019s Miami\u2019s fault entirely.<\/p>\n

But a first round pick for Waddle, a high-paid player who is 6-7ish years older than the rookie class, does say something about the receivers. A group that is typically the DEEPEST in a given class and 2026 is supposed to be no exception. Sean Payton didn\u2019t want to risk getting KC Concepcion and having nothing to show for it.<\/p>\n

Do Rams have concerns with pick 13?<\/p>\n

So there we have it. A class we already know might be the worst quarterback class since 2022, if not worse, starts rough at the top and doesn\u2019t seem to get much better from there.<\/p>\n

We could blame the NIL or the transfer portal or greed by the conferences and the NCAA or we could just call it bad luck. We see bad draft classes sometimes.<\/p>\n

The fact that the Bengals said, \u201cNah, we\u2019d rather have a nose tackle turning 29 than a top-10 pick\u201d says more than some people care to admit. Yes, Lawrence is a beast and every team would love to have him.<\/p>\n

But the 10th pick? In a year where six first round picks have already been traded, the class screams \u201cWe want no part in this\u201d by the teams.<\/p>\n

Is Makai Lemon or Jermod McCoy or Kenyon Sadiq or Monroe Freeling really getting you hyped up? Really?<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve seen teams trade these first round picks for below value already. We should expect many more by Thursday. And if you want the Rams to trade down for more picks, seeing how little teams value top-15 picks already\u2026<\/p>\n

Be careful what you wish for.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Los Angeles Rams didn\u2019t make an offer for Dexter Lawrence that we know of, but even if…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":857361,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2079],"tags":[7,1014,58,2619,2444,2611,6,424],"class_list":{"0":"post-870111","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-los-angeles-rams","8":"tag-football","9":"tag-los-angeles","10":"tag-los-angeles-rams","11":"tag-los-angeles-rams-draft","12":"tag-losangeles","13":"tag-losangelesrams","14":"tag-nfl","15":"tag-rams"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116432787480816646","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/870111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=870111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/870111\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/857361"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=870111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=870111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=870111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}