Brad Holmes receives well-deserved praise for draft hits like Amon-Ra St. Brown, and also fair criticism for bigger swings that haven\u2019t paid off, such as Brodric Martin. Both can be true\u2014and both are part of evaluating a general manager\u2019s draft performance.<\/p>\n
This analysis takes a different approach: measuring draft success relative to expectations at each pick. The goal is to evaluate whether each selection delivered more or less value than what teams typically expect from that draft slot.<\/p>\n
The quick takeaway is straightforward. The Lions have been highly successful in the Holmes era not just because of a few standout steals, but because they have largely avoided meaningful negative outcomes early in the draft while generating surplus value in the middle rounds. If there is one defining trait, it may be this: Holmes has been very consistent at the top of the draft, with nearly every pick meeting or exceeding expectations.<\/p>\n
That distinction matters. A first-round miss carries outsized consequences\u2014lost opportunity, slower roster development, and misallocated resources. By contrast, mid- and late-round hits are additive. The most effective drafting approach includes minimizing costly mistakes early while capitalizing on opportunities later.<\/p>\n
To evaluate this, each pick was assigned an \u201cexpected value\u201d based on draft position. Top-10 picks carry near-star expectations (9 on a 10-point scale), late first-round picks slightly less (8), and the scale declines through Day 3. Each player was then graded on a 1\u201310 scale based on performance to date, with All-Pro seasons anchoring the top end (10) and Pro Bowl-level play just below (9). The difference between those two numbers produces a \u201cvalue gap,\u201d which reflects whether a player exceeded or fell short of expectations.<\/p>\n
One important note: I minimized the impact of injuries, as they are difficult to predict. For example, Alim McNeill was evaluated primarily pre-injury, and injuries to Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch were not factored into their grades. The intent is to evaluate draft decision-making based on what can reasonably be scouted and projected.<\/p>\n
Grading Scale Grade Meaning<\/p>\n
10 All-Pro \/ elite cornerstone<\/p>\n
9 Pro Bowl \/ high-end impact starter<\/p>\n
8 Strong, above-average starter<\/p>\n
7 Solid starter<\/p>\n
6 Average starter \/ meaningful contributor<\/p>\n
5 Role player<\/p>\n
4 Depth player<\/p>\n
3 Replacement level<\/p>\n
2 Limited contribution<\/p>\n
1 Miss<\/p>\n
The rankings are pasted as an image below (you can’t paste data or tables into this editor)<\/p>\n
Outside of the criteria-based 10 (All-Pro) and 9 (Pro Bowl), these grades are subjective. I expect some readers will disagree, particularly for players early in their careers. That is expected. Most differences are likely to be marginal, but feedback is welcome.<\/p>\n
Several patterns emerge from the rankings. First, the Lions\u2019 first-round picks have been notably stable. Players like Penei Sewell, Aidan Hutchinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jack Campbell have all met or exceeded expectations relative to their draft position. The only first-round negative in this analysis is Terrion Arnold, who currently grades as a slight miss. However, it is still early in his career and injuries have played a role. He is likely the player in this dataset with the widest range of reader evaluations. Second round picks have not been as consistently successful.<\/p>\n
Much of the surplus value is concentrated in the middle rounds. Amon-Ra St. Brown stands out as one of the largest positive gaps, but he is not alone. Kerby Joseph, Malcolm Rodriguez, Sam LaPorta, and Alim McNeill have all significantly outperformed expectations for their draft slots. This is where the Lions have created a meaningful roster advantage.<\/p>\n
There are, of course, more negative evaluations. Players like Hendon Hooker and Brodric Martin grade out as negative relative to expectations. James Houston flashed production, but limited usage tempers the overall evaluation. Giovanni Manu currently grades as bust but perhaps he turns it around? Ennis Rakestraw was excluded due to insufficient availability.<\/p>\n
Holmes\u2019 draft success is not defined solely by headline steals. It is the combination of avoiding early-round setbacks and consistently finding value beyond the top of the draft. That balance is difficult to achieve\u2014and it is a major reason the Lions\u2019 roster has developed the way it has.<\/p>\n
Based on this history, it is reasonable to hope for a mid-round steal\u2014but with pick 17, the expectation should be a high-level contributor who meets or exceeds first-round standards.<\/p>\n
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