The Buffalo Bills hiring of Joe Brady as their head coach to immediately succeed Sean McDermott got me thinking all the way back in January.<\/p>\n
Thinking a lot.<\/p>\n
The reasonably surprising hire generated plenty questions in my head, and one cluster of related questions have stayed squarely at the front of my mind ever since \u2014 how frequently do teams promote from within? How often do teams wish they would\u2019ve hired from within instead of finding their next head coach from another team?<\/p>\n
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By now, you know how it typically goes in the NFL on the hiring front \u2014 hot-shot coordinator from one team becomes an external head-coach hire elsewhere. That\u2019s the most commonly followed blueprint. It\u2019s been that way forever.<\/p>\n
And the Washington Commanders<\/a> unprecedented bag-fumbling of a coaching staff that, in 2013, consisted of Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, Mike McDaniel, and Raheem Morris is the most infamous example of what I\u2019m going to call an Internal Promotion Miss (IPM).<\/p>\n Since said bag-fumbling by Washington, the Shanahan and McVay coaching trees have become the most rapidly sprouting trees of their kind in the modern NFL, and none of this research is to suggest for a second either Shanahan or McVay were ever thought to be directly replaced by one of their disciples. And of course, Shanahan and McVay themselves are the original IPM examples for this study.<\/p>\n Shanahan made stops as an offensive coordinator in Houston<\/a>, Washington, Cleveland<\/a>, and Atlanta<\/a> \u2014 and despite a bevy of head-coaching hires by those franchises during his time spent as an offensive coordinator in each city, he was never internally promoted to head coach. He got the 49ers head-coaching job in 2017. Chalk him up as an IPM in each aforementioned instanced.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n McVay was in Washington\u2019s organization from 2010 \u2013 2016 before being named the Los Angeles Rams head coach in 2017.<\/p>\n Now, the entirety of the evidence will not allow me to suggest that simply promoting from within is the full-proof way to land a highly successful head coach in the NFL. If the method was that cut and dry, it would\u2019ve been long been copied in this league. Jim Tomsula with the 49ers, Dirk Koetter with the Buccaneers, Antonio Pierce with the Raiders, Lovie Smith with the Texans<\/a>, and the Patriots with Jerod Mayo<\/a> are all examples over the past decade-ish of internal promotions that\u2019ve flopped as head coaches.<\/p>\n Here are the *recent* IPMs, all of which have transpired over the past decade, and you\u2019ll notice, they tend to be from one side of the ball:<\/p>\n Ben Johnson was an offensive assistant in Miami<\/a> with the Dolphins from 2012 \u2013 2018. The Dolphins hired Brian Flores as head coach in 2019, and two more coaches after him to date.<\/p>\n Mike Macdonald was with the Ravens organization from 2014 \u2013 2020 and then 2022 \u2013 2023. Baltimore<\/a> fired John Harbaugh after the 2025 campaign.<\/p>\n Nick Sirianni was the Colts offensive coordinator from 2018 \u2013 2020. Indianapolis<\/a> fired Frank Reich during the 2022 season.<\/p>\n Matt LaFleur was the Falcons offensive coordinator in 2015 and 2016 during the ultimately failed Arthur Smith era. He was also the Titans offensive coordinator in 2018, the first season of the Mike Vrabel era. They\u2019re now on their third coach since Vrabel.<\/p>\n Kevin O\u2019Connell was the Commanders offensive coordinator in 2019 before Washington decided to hire Ron Rivera as their head coach in 2020.<\/p>\n Kevin Stefanski spent 2006 \u2013 2019 with the Vikings, and the 2020 campaign was the second-to-last in the Mike Zimmer era for Minnesota<\/a>.<\/p>\n Zac Taylor was the Dolphins offensive coordinator in 2015 before the team decided to hire Adam Gase for the 2016 season.<\/p>\n Dave Canales was a longtime Seahawks offensive assistant coach, from 2010 \u2013 2022 and then Buccaneers offensive coordinator in 2023 before taking his current gig as head coach of the Panthers in 2024.<\/p>\n