{"id":938953,"date":"2026-07-07T08:48:23","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T08:48:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/938953\/"},"modified":"2026-07-07T08:48:23","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T08:48:23","slug":"bettors-are-all-over-usa-against-belgium-so-why-arent-sportsbooks-moving-the-odds-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/938953\/","title":{"rendered":"Bettors are all over USA against Belgium so why aren\u2019t sportsbooks moving the odds more?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Athletic has live coverage of USMNT vs Belgium<\/a> in the 2026 FIFA World Cup<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

For every game of the World Cup, the United States men\u2019s national team<\/a> has created near-record betting action, which has forced oddsmakers to scramble. The next match figures to have the highest handle, but it also involved a wild twist 24 hours before kickoff that forced sportsbooks to adjust even further.<\/p>\n

Folarin Balogun, the Americans\u2019 leading scorer, is now eligible and expected to start<\/a> against Belgium in the round of 16 on Monday, despite receiving a red card in their previous game.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s worth about 15 to 20 cents,\u201d DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told The Athletic. \u201cIt\u2019s difficult on the statistics side, but he\u2019s a key component. You want your team at full strength. There are others who can take his place, but it\u2019s important, as threatening as he is.\u201d<\/p>\n

As soon as the breaking news hit social media, prediction market Kalshi moved from exactly 50 percent for the U.S. to advance to 52.9 percent, which is the equivalent of shifting from +100 to -112 on the moneyline.<\/p>\n

Diehard fans on why they support the USMNT<\/p>\n

Lia Griffin<\/p>\n

Caesars Sportsbook reflected a similar adjustment, moving the USMNT from -108 to -120. On the three-way regulation line, the Americans shifted from +164 to +144 odds.
Even before Balogun\u2019s status changed, Caesars had taken more than 80 percent of both the tickets and the money on the United States across the three-way and advancement markets. Thus, early backers were rewarded with clear closing-line value. However, most of the money typically arrives on game day.<\/p>\n

\u201cTeam USA has already generated record wagering volume across tickets and handle throughout the tournament,\u201d Caesars vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said via email. \u201cAlthough Argentina vs. Cape Verde temporarily surpassed those numbers during its thrilling back-and-forth matchup, Team USA is expected to reclaim the top spot and set another wagering record.\u201d<\/p>\n

While the USMNT has consistently rewarded backers so far, oddsmakers are still not skewing the odds. In the 2000s, Las Vegas sportsbooks would routinely make those adjustments for heavily-backed teams, such as the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Lakers, but they have since changed that philosophy.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have to stay consistent with what we do,\u201d Avello said. \u201cWe have to make sure our customers are getting a fair price. That\u2019s just how we have to do business. We know which side they want to bet, but we would rather put up a fair price.\u201d<\/p>\n

The main rationale for this philosophical change is the sheer volume of advanced bettors and betting syndicates. Simply, the house is more concerned with their wagers than that of recreational wagers, even if the betting public represents 90 to 95 percent of the money.<\/p>\n

The casino has a similar approach with a roulette wheel. If gamblers all wager on \u201cred\u201d for a single spin, the house welcomes the action because they know they have the mathematical edge. In sports, the house also has an edge \u2014 unless a respected bettor places a wager. When that occurs, bookmakers conclude the odds need to be adjusted.<\/p>\n

So far, sharps have not been betting against the USMNT. Therefore, there is no need to change the odds, unless significant news occurs \u2014 like Balogun\u2019s status. Plus, much like the casino, recreational sports bettors will take their winnings and continue to place wagers against the house\u2019s edge. So, in due time, sportsbooks can ignore the overwhelming splits because they will eventually grind profit, even if they take a big hit on Team USA.<\/p>\n

One caveat is that the United States has continued to outperform expectations. The betting lines can adjust along the way because experts now view the Americans differently.<\/p>\n

\u201cVictories over the 37th-, 25th- and 64th-ranked nations are a different proposition than overcoming the world\u2019s 10th-ranked team, particularly with the expectations of an entire nation resting on Team USA\u2019s shoulders,\u201d Mucklow said ahead of the U.S. facing Belgium. \u201cLiability should not be a reason to defer customers away with overzealous odds adjustments.\u201d<\/p>\n

The winner of Spain and Portugal looms next in the quarterfinals, potentially followed by France (+170 favorite). If the United States continues this run against stiffer competition, that could change the entire landscape.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Athletic has live coverage of USMNT vs Belgium in the 2026 FIFA World Cup.\u00a0 For every game…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":938954,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[114802,7,6,15,5433,30045],"class_list":["post-938953","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl-draft","tag-belgium","tag-football","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-draft","tag-sports-betting","tag-us-mens-national-team"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116877833269574562","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/938953","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=938953"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/938953\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/938954"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=938953"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=938953"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=938953"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}