{"id":954141,"date":"2026-07-24T11:06:18","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T11:06:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/954141\/"},"modified":"2026-07-24T11:06:18","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T11:06:18","slug":"will-mcclay-explained-how-the-cowboys-stole-caleb-downs-in-the-2026-nfl-draft-inside-the-star","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/954141\/","title":{"rendered":"Will McClay Explained How the Cowboys Stole Caleb Downs in the 2026 NFL Draft \u00bb Inside The Star"},"content":{"rendered":"

Will McClay said the Cowboys gave themselves about a 3% chance of Caleb Downs still being on the board when Dallas picked in the 2026 NFL Draft.<\/p>\n

I had to listen to that statement a couple of times when I heard it because 3% is crazy low odds.<\/p>\n

A lot of people have called Dallas lucky since draft night. I\u2019ve heard it from Cowboys fans, and plenty of people in the media. After listening to Wil McClay explain what went on behind the scenes, I don\u2019t think luck had much to do with it.<\/p>\n

What stood out to me in the interview Voch Lombardi and Bryan Broadus had with Will McClay, on their Doin\u2019 Alright podcast<\/a>, wasn\u2019t the Caleb Downs news, but everything the Cowboys had done before the draft started.<\/p>\n

\"Caleb<\/p>\n

Dallas Didn\u2019t Wait for the Draft to Surprise Them<\/p>\n

Will McClay admitted the Cowboys never expected Caleb Downs to make it to them.<\/p>\n

\u201cI remember one time looking\u2026 there was like a 3% chance.\u201d<\/p>\n

Three percent. Most people hear a number that low and figure there\u2019s no reason to spend time on it. As we all know now, Dallas saw things differently.<\/p>\n

McClay explained how his scouting department worked through every scenario before the draft weekend arrived.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne of the things that I\u2019m most proud about is the college scouts digging and doing the work\u2026 having the answerers and being prepared ahead of time.\u201d<\/p>\n

He would explain how him and the scouting department would go over these scenarios, so they would be ready when their pick rolled around. I like knowing this and hearing about what happens before the card gets turned in.<\/p>\n

We rarely see the hundreds of conversations before that moment and when Downs kept sliding<\/a>, the Cowboys weren\u2019t having any debates for the first time. They\u2019d already settled how it would work out weeks earlier.<\/p>\n

Does luck play a part? Absolutely, but preparation is much better than luck.<\/p>\n

\"Will<\/p>\n

Will McClay Isn\u2019t Choosing Film Over Analytics<\/p>\n

Has football become scouts versus computers<\/a>? Will McClay made it pretty clear that isn\u2019t how Dallas operates.<\/p>\n

\u201cI believe my eyes. My computer\u2019s here too. It\u2019s trained.\u201d<\/p>\n

I like that answer because it shows that the Cowboys staff isn\u2019t afraid of technology.<\/p>\n

They watch the tape and trust their experience. Then they let the numbers challenge their thinking before another team does.<\/p>\n

One of my favorite quotes from Will McClay builds off of the quote above:<\/p>\n

\u201cSo, tell me where my blind spots are because we do have them. Point out the inconsistences, like we were talking about the draft and trends and those things. I think those things are important to be aware of and to let the decision-makers be aware of that and put that into their thought process when they make a decision.\u201d<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t see that as someone who thinks he has football figured out. I think it\u2019s someone trying to keep from making the same mistake twice.<\/p>\n

I can get behind that.<\/p>\n

\"Will<\/p>\n

McClay Doesn\u2019t Ignore the Draft Misses<\/p>\n

Will McClay never acted like Dallas has nailed every draft pick.<\/p>\n

When the conversation shifted to past draft misses<\/a>, he explained what happens inside the building after those players don\u2019t work out.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou go back and you look at those reasons and you try not to make those mistakes again.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not an answer that will make headlines, but I think it does say plenty about why Dallas has stayed one of the better drafting teams over the last decade.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t feel like good organizations spend time defending bad picks. They figure out why they missed on those picks and get back to work.<\/p>\n

McClay also reminded everybody that scouting isn\u2019t only about forty times or highlight reels.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you miss, you go back and you look at why. It\u2019s the people. That\u2019s the number one thing because you\u2019re taking people from one thing and from a situation that they\u2019re familiar with, putting them in a different one, you\u2019re putting money in their pocket. All those different things\u2014how are they going to react? So it\u2019s those things.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the part fans, including me, sometimes miss. Players aren\u2019t robots.<\/p>\n

A guy can check every box on paper and still fail because the fit isn\u2019t right, or his development doesn\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n

\"Caleb<\/p>\n

Caleb Downs was the Reward for Doing The Homework<\/p>\n

The more I listened to McClay, the less I cared about the idea that Caleb Downs unexpectedly fell<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I feel like the bigger story is Dallas already knew what they wanted to do if that unlikely moment happened.<\/p>\n

I love that McClay also said analytics has pushed him to find ways to get \u201ccloser to right.\u201d<\/p>\n

He didn\u2019t claim Dallas has cracked some cheat code or solved the draft using analytics. Will McClay has just found another tool that helps challenge him and the scouts in what they already believe.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think the Cowboys stole Caleb Downs because every other team suddenly forgot how to draft, although I think the Giants did.<\/p>\n

I think they stole Caleb Downs because they were ready for something most teams probably thought would never happen.<\/p>\n

Was this helpful?<\/p>\n

Thanks for your feedback!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Will McClay said the Cowboys gave themselves about a 3% chance of Caleb Downs still being on the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":954142,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[4955,4325,613,7,7410,8636,6,15,1964,2885],"class_list":["post-954141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl-draft","tag-2026-nfl-draft","tag-analytics","tag-caleb-downs","tag-football","tag-front-office","tag-interview","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-draft","tag-scouting","tag-will-mcclay"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/116974635665308748","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/954141","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=954141"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/954141\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/954142"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=954141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=954141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=954141"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}