{"id":987264,"date":"2026-08-30T12:36:33","date_gmt":"2026-08-30T12:36:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/987264\/"},"modified":"2026-08-30T12:36:33","modified_gmt":"2026-08-30T12:36:33","slug":"college-football-bowl-projections-2026-first-look-at-this-years-complex-postseason-picture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/987264\/","title":{"rendered":"College football bowl projections 2026: First look at this year\u2019s complex postseason picture"},"content":{"rendered":"

When Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti and his SEC counterpart Greg Sankey could not agree on a new College Football Playoff system for the 2026-27 season, the entire postseason was left in purgatory.<\/p>\n

The CFP will remain at 12 teams, not expand to 16 as Sankey prefers, nor double to 24 in the format championed by Petitti, and the ripple effect has been felt everywhere. All six-year contracts governing the bowl system expired in January, but the leagues and bowls opted to extend their previous deals by one year. That has lengthened an already awkward bowl arrangement between the former and current Pac-12 schools. There are also a couple of CFP tweaks that will spark heavy discussion as the postseason picture crystallizes in late November and early December.<\/p>\n

Before we get into the projections, here are other particulars to know about the 2026-27 postseason.<\/p>\n

CFP alterations<\/p>\n

The CFP consists of five conference champions and seven at-large selections \u2014 just like in its first two iterations as a 12-team event \u2014 but it will be composed differently. Instead of the top five conference champions earning bids, now the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC champions get automatic berths, as does the highest-ranked team (conference title no longer required) from the Group of 6 conferences: American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt. In addition, Notre Dame qualifies for the CFP if the selection committee ranks it in the top 12.<\/p>\n

Had these rules been in place last year, Duke and Notre Dame would have replaced James Madison and Miami (Fla.) in the 12-team tournament.<\/p>\n

Historical bowl ties will no longer figure into where top seeds are placed for CFP quarterfinals. Previously, if the Big Ten and SEC champions earned first-round byes, they slotted into the Rose and Sugar bowls, respectively. Now, the top three teams will choose their destinations in their rank order. If, for instance, Ohio State is seeded No. 1, it could pick the Peach Bowl for proximity or Pasadena for nostalgia.<\/p>\n

Another change comes in the CFP viewership options. ABC\/ESPN has evenly split its CFP distribution with TNT\/HBO through the national semifinals. TNT\/HBO will air the final two first-round matchups on Dec. 19, quarterfinals at the Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 30) and either the Cotton or Peach bowl (Jan. 1) plus the semifinal at the Orange Bowl (Jan. 14). ESPN will broadcast the first two first-round games (Dec. 18-19), the Rose Bowl and either the Cotton or Peach bowls (Jan. 1), the Sugar Bowl (Jan. 15) and CFP championship (Jan. 25).<\/p>\n

Starting times for the Rose, Cotton and Peach bowls will be set after seeding becomes finalized. The Rose will kick off either in its traditional midday slot or in primetime.<\/p>\n

Bowl-oney<\/p>\n

If CFP scheduling is a bit confusing, it has nothing on the contract bowls. When 10 Pac-12 members left the old version of the conference for the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC in 2024, most bowl contracts still had two years remaining. The stop-gap solution held the former Pac-12 schools (plus holdovers Oregon State and Washington State) in place for two years as part of a \u201cPac-12 Legacy\u201d bowl agreement. It was a patchwork arrangement for two seasons, but in this extra year, it becomes even more complicated.<\/p>\n

Washington State and Oregon State, which reformed the Pac-12 with six other schools, are considered Pac-12 Legacy teams except if they qualify for the newly constituted Poinsettia Bowl, in which they would be considered a current Pac-12 school. None of the Pac-12 Legacy teams can fill bowl spots for their current leagues, which makes things tough for the Cactus Bowl. The Phoenix-area bowl has a Big Ten-Big 12 matchup but can\u2019t invite the leagues\u2019 Arizona or California schools.<\/p>\n

Five new Pac-12 members competed last year in the Mountain West, and those two leagues are slated to meet in the Hawaii Bowl and perhaps others, with fewer direct slots set aside for specific Group of 6 conferences in the numerous bowls owned by ESPN Events.<\/p>\n

The SEC and Big Ten alternated sending teams to the Duke\u2019s Mayo and Las Vegas bowls over the previous six years. This year, the SEC heads to Vegas, while the Big Ten travels to Charlotte.<\/p>\n

Projections<\/p>\n

In what could be the final 12-team CFP before leaders expand the field again, I went with four SEC teams, four Big Ten teams, Notre Dame and the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 champions. The SEC\u2019s introduction of a ninth regular-season conference game will cost at least one of its teams (either Ole Miss or LSU) a CFP spot. Penn State collects the final at-large bid here, which surely will invite controversy given the Nittany Lions\u2019 strength of schedule.<\/p>\n

Among the most interesting of the way-too-early bowl projections is LSU and national villain Lane Kiffin taking on his former USC squad and Lincoln Riley in Las Vegas. A Great Plains reunion between Kansas State and Nebraska at the Cactus Bowl would conjure up some sentimentality. Maybe a UCF-USF matchup in Boca Raton would spur the I-4 rivals to play more regularly. Finally, nothing would fit bowl season better than Steve Spurrier flipping the coin before a Florida-Duke kickoff in Tampa.<\/p>\n

Check out Stewart Mandel\u2019s league predictions and CFP qualifiers here: ACC<\/a>\/Notre Dame<\/a>, Big Ten<\/a>, Big 12<\/a>, SEC<\/a>.<\/p>\n

BowlMatchup<\/p>\n

Playoff
\n Dec. 18, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

6 Georgia<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

11 Penn State<\/p>\n

Playoff
\n Dec. 19, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

7 Miami (Fla.)<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

10 Oklahoma<\/p>\n

Playoff
\n Dec. 19, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

5 Indiana<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

12 Boise State<\/p>\n

Playoff
\n Dec. 19, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

8 Alabama<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

9 BYU<\/p>\n

Fiesta
\n Dec. 30, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

3 Ohio State<\/p>\n

UGA\/PSU winner<\/p>\n

Cotton
\n Jan. 1, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

2 Texas<\/p>\n

Miami\/OU winner<\/p>\n

Rose
\n Jan. 1, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

4 Oregon<\/p>\n

Indiana\/Boise winner<\/p>\n

Peach
\n Jan. 1, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

1 Notre Dame<\/p>\n

Bama\/BYU winner<\/p>\n

Orange
\n Jan. 14, 2026<\/p>\n

QF winner<\/p>\n

QF winner<\/p>\n

Sugar
\n Jan. 15, 2026<\/p>\n

QF winner<\/p>\n

QF winner<\/p>\n

Championship
\n Jan. 25, 2026<\/p>\n

SF winner<\/p>\n

SF winner<\/p>\n

BowlMatchup<\/p>\n

Salute to Veterans
\n Dec. 15, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Appalachian State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

G6 Miami (OH)<\/p>\n

Frisco Classic
\n Dec. 15, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

G6 Louisiana Tech<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

G6 Western Kentucky<\/p>\n

Boca Raton
\n Dec. 18, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

TBD USF<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

TBD UCF<\/p>\n

Gasparilla
\n Dec. 18, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC\/ACC\/Other Duke<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC\/ACC\/Other Florida<\/p>\n

Myrtle Beach
\n Dec. 21, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Old Dominion<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

TBD Jacksonville State<\/p>\n

Famous Idaho Potato
\n Dec. 21, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

G6 New Mexico<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

G6 Toledo<\/p>\n

Puerto Rico
\n Dec. 22, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MAC Ohio<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

G6 Delaware<\/p>\n

Cure
\n Dec. 22, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt James Madison<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

TBD East Carolina<\/p>\n

Independence
\n Dec. 22, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 7 West Virginia<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 Legacy UCLA<\/p>\n

New Orleans
\n Dec. 23, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Louisiana<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

CUSA Kennesaw State<\/p>\n

Armed Forces
\n Dec. 23, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

TBD Air Force<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

TBD UTSA<\/p>\n

Poinsettia
\n Dec. 23, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 Legacy 6 Arizona State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 Fresno State<\/p>\n

Frisco
\n Dec. 23, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

TBD Texas State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

TBD Memphis<\/p>\n

New Mexico
\n Dec. 24, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC UNLV<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

TBD Washington State<\/p>\n

Hawai’i
\n Dec. 24, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC Hawaii<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 San Diego State<\/p>\n

Pinstripe
\n Dec. 26, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 6 Minnesota<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 5-7 NC State<\/p>\n

Fenway
\n Dec. 26, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 8-9 Pittsburgh<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

American Navy<\/p>\n

Duke’s Mayo
\n Dec. 26, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 5 Wisconsin<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 5-7 Virginia<\/p>\n

68 Ventures
\n Dec. 26, 2001<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Sun Belt Troy<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

G6 Liberty<\/p>\n

Cactus
\n Dec. 26, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 7 Nebraska<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 6 Kansas State<\/p>\n

Military
\n Dec. 28, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

American Army<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 8-9 North Carolina<\/p>\n

Holiday
\n Dec. 28, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 Legacy 4 Utah<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 2-4 Clemson<\/p>\n

Birmingham
\n Dec. 29, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC\/SEC\/G6 Marshall<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC\/SEC\/G6 Georgia Tech<\/p>\n

Pop-Tarts
\n Dec. 29, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 3 Oklahoma State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 2-4 SMU<\/p>\n

Alamo
\n Dec. 29, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 2 Texas Tech<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 Legacy 2 Washington<\/p>\n

Gator
\n Dec. 30, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 2-4 Louisville<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 South Carolina<\/p>\n

Music City
\n Dec. 30, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 4 Illinois<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 Auburn<\/p>\n

ReliaQuest
\n Dec. 31, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 3 Michigan<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 Tennessee<\/p>\n

Sun
\n Dec. 31, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

ACC 5-7 Florida State<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 Legacy 5 Arizona<\/p>\n

Las Vegas
\n Dec. 31, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Pac-12 Legacy 3 USC<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 LSU<\/p>\n

Texas
\n Dec. 31, 2026<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 4 TCU<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 Texas A&M<\/p>\n

Citrus
\n Jan. 2, 2027<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big Ten 2 Iowa<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 2 Ole Miss<\/p>\n

First Responder
\n Jan. 2, 2027<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

TBD California<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

TBD Tulane<\/p>\n

Liberty
\n Jan. 2, 2027<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

Big 12 5 Houston<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

SEC 3-8 Missouri<\/p>\n

Arizona
\n Date TBD<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MAC Western Michigan<\/p>\n

\"Logo<\/p>\n

MWC North Dakota State<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti and his SEC counterpart Greg Sankey could not agree on a new…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":987265,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[9436,4715,4707,843,331,4706,7643,4709,4713,7,4716,5042,4728,4725,1286,4720,4719,4722,577,1868,3364,2972,2549,71,22805,4727,4712,49,48,4604,4714,4717,8243,69,1787,4723,2743,3861,4729,4726,4710,4431,3862,4724,5041,1078,4721,4711,22804,4708,4718,3863,3201,1300,2785],"class_list":["post-987264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ncaa-football","tag-baylor-bears","tag-boston-college-eagles","tag-cincinnati-bearcats","tag-clemson-tigers","tag-college-football","tag-connecticut-huskies","tag-duke-blue-devils","tag-east-carolina-pirates","tag-florida-state-seminoles","tag-football","tag-georgia-tech-yellow-jackets","tag-houston-cougars","tag-illinois-fighting-illini","tag-indiana-hoosiers","tag-iowa-hawkeyes","tag-iowa-state-cyclones","tag-kansas-jayhawks","tag-kansas-state-wildcats","tag-louisville-cardinals","tag-maryland-terrapins","tag-memphis-tigers","tag-miami-hurricanes","tag-michigan-state-spartans","tag-michigan-wolverines","tag-middle-tennessee-blue-raider","tag-minnesota-golden-gophers","tag-navy-midshipmen","tag-ncaa","tag-ncaa-football","tag-nebraska-cornhuskers","tag-north-carolina-state-wolfpack","tag-north-carolina-tar-heels","tag-northwestern-wildcats","tag-ohio-state-buckeyes","tag-oklahoma-sooners","tag-oklahoma-state-cowboys","tag-penn-state-nittany-lions","tag-pittsburgh-panthers","tag-purdue-boilermakers","tag-rutgers-scarlet-knights","tag-smu-mustangs","tag-south-florida-bulls","tag-syracuse-orange","tag-tcu-horned-frogs","tag-temple-owls","tag-texas-longhorns","tag-texas-tech-red-raiders","tag-tulane-green-wave","tag-tulsa-golden-hurricane","tag-ucf-knights","tag-virginia-cavaliers","tag-virginia-tech-hokies","tag-wake-forest-demon-deacons","tag-west-virginia-mountaineers","tag-wisconsin-badgers"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/987264","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=987264"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/987264\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/987265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=987264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=987264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=987264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}