{"id":994292,"date":"2026-09-07T13:06:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T13:06:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/994292\/"},"modified":"2026-09-07T13:06:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T13:06:13","slug":"2026-afc-west-predictions-chiefs-broncos-chargers-raiders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/994292\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 AFC West Predictions: Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers & Raiders"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n

The Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 last year. Patrick Mahomes was 1-7 on the road. They lost six straight to close the season. And DJ and Kelcey of the High Low Sports Podcast<\/a> are genuinely intrigued by them again, not in the blind faith way, in the actually-watch-the-tape way. The Denver Broncos won 14 games and earned the AFC\u2019s top seed. The Chargers have Mike McDaniel running the offense for Justin Herbert. The Raiders are preparing to hand Fernando Mendoza the keys while praying Kirk Cousins bridges the gap. After picking all 272 regular season games individually and making eight futures prop bets through Outlier<\/a>, the No. 1 rated sports betting research and data app, here is the full AFC West breakdown.<\/p>\n

AFC West Team BreakdownLas Vegas Raiders<\/p>\n

The ideal scenario for Las Vegas in 2026 is something like the 2021 Detroit Lions, a young, hungry team that plays hard, wins more games than expected and avoids the draft position that actually hurts them long-term. Kirk Cousins provides professional quarterback play in the regular season, Brock Bowers is healthy after missing time and still scored seven touchdowns, and Ashton Jeanty gave you 10 touchdowns as a rookie.<\/p>\n

Fernando Mendoza waits behind Cousins as a developmental option. Klint Kubiak joins Las Vegas after running the Seahawks offense to a Super Bowl. The offensive line features Tyler Linderbaum anchoring things after leaving Baltimore. None of it adds up to a playoff team, but it adds up to something more watchable than the 3-14 finish last year.<\/p>\n

Kansas City Chiefs<\/p>\n

The receiver room needs an Uber. Rashee Rice has played 12 games in two seasons combined and most recently missed time because his knee rehab was interrupted by mandatory jail time. Travis Kelce is still a top-five tight end. Kenneth Walker was sniped at the goal line in Seattle all year and still scored nine touchdowns. That problem no longer exists in Kansas City.<\/p>\n

Andy Reid has been turning nothing into something for 30 years. Mahomes cleared medically and healthy. If he plays 16 games, 25 passing touchdowns is 1.3 per game, a realistic number. Both hosts are cautiously intrigued, neither is fully committed, and that feels like the honest place to be with this team.<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Chargers<\/p>\n

This is Justin Herbert\u2019s last excuse. Mike McDaniel removed jumbo packages, the 10 offensive line combinations from last season, and the unusual play-calling that kept Herbert from expressing what he actually is as a quarterback. Jim Harbaugh loves running backs. Omarion Hampton profiles as a goal-line back and a real contributor. Ladd McConkey, now without Keenan Allen eating every third-down target, steps into a featured role with genuine breakout upside.<\/p>\n

Herbert has cleared 3,500 passing yards in every healthy season of his career. The Chargers have the roster construction and the coaching to be a legitimate threat in January.<\/p>\n

Denver Broncos<\/p>\n

Arguably the best offensive line in football. Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Waddle as a 1A\/1B receiver combination. A defense that was 17 yards a game away from being the top unit in the entire NFL. The only true question about this team is Bo Nix\u2019s ankle and how much of his rushing ability comes back after offseason work.<\/p>\n

Kelcey thinks that question resolves itself while DJ thinks the ankle matters more than people are pricing in, plus the regression to the mean in one-score games. Those variables are the gap between two dramatically different outcomes for the same very good football team.<\/p>\n

Best Bets: AFC West Futures \u2014 Powered by Outlier<\/p>\n

All eight picks were researched and cross-referenced using Outlier<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ladd McConkey \u2014 Over 5.5 receiving TDs \u2014 Had seven touchdowns in a bad year with Keenan Allen taking his targets. Now he is the clear No. 1. Kelcey\u2019s pick.<\/p>\n

Kenneth Walker \u2014 Over 7.5 rushing TDs (+110) \u2014 Nine last year while being removed near the goal line. That does not happen in Kansas City. Kelcey\u2019s pick.<\/p>\n

Ashton Jeanty \u2014 Over 5.5 rushing TDs (-115) \u2014 Ten as a rookie. The Raiders hand the ball to their workhorse inside the 10 regardless of who is at quarterback. Kelcey\u2019s pick.<\/p>\n

Bo Nix \u2014 Over 3,499.5 passing yards (-110) \u2014 Led the NFL in passing attempts last year and hit his over. 202 yards per game splits between Waddle, Sutton and multiple tight ends. Kelcey\u2019s pick.<\/p>\n

Justin Herbert \u2014 Over 3,500 passing yards (-110) \u2014 Has cleared that number in every healthy season. Even in 2025 with 10 offensive line combinations he nearly got there. Trend holds. DJ\u2019s pick.<\/p>\n

Patrick Mahomes \u2014 Over 25 passing TDs \u2014 Had 22 in just 12 games last year. Full season with Walker, Kelce and a receiver room that at minimum functions. 1.3 per game to hit it. DJ\u2019s pick.<\/p>\n

Brock Bowers \u2014 Over 7.5 receiving TDs \u2014 Seven last year despite missing five weeks and splitting time. Cousins throws to his No. 1 when in doubt. He always has. DJ\u2019s pick.<\/p>\n

J.K. Dobbins \u2014 Under 5.5 rushing TDs \u2014 Shared backfield with RJ Harvey and Jonah Coleman. Denver was 15th in scoring despite ranking 10th in yards. Not enough red zone opportunity. DJ\u2019s pick.<\/p>\n

2026 AFC West Standings Predictions<\/p>\n

DJ and Kelcey each picked all 272 regular season games independently before arriving at these records.<\/p>\n

DJ\u2019s Predictions<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Chargers \u2014 11-6 (Division champions \u2014 tiebreaker over Chiefs)Kansas City Chiefs \u2014 11-6 (AFC wild card)Denver Broncos \u2014 8-9Las Vegas Raiders \u2014 7-10<\/p>\n

Kelcey\u2019s Predictions<\/p>\n

Denver Broncos \u2014 14-3 (Division champions, AFC No. 1 seed)Los Angeles Chargers \u2014 13-4 (AFC playoff team)Kansas City Chiefs \u2014 11-6 (AFC playoff team)Las Vegas Raiders \u2014 4-13<\/p>\n

Check out the latest with High Low Sports episode on YouTube and all our social media pages.<\/p>\n

X:\u00a0@High_Low_Sports<\/a>
Instagram:\u00a0@HighLowSports<\/a>
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Facebook:\u00a0@HighLowSports<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 last year. Patrick Mahomes was 1-7 on the road. They lost six…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":994293,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2064],"tags":[232,241,346,7,1014,262,2444,2443,6,15962,41481,525,5433],"class_list":["post-994292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-los-angeles-chargers","tag-broncos","tag-chargers","tag-chiefs","tag-football","tag-los-angeles","tag-los-angeles-chargers","tag-losangeles","tag-losangeleschargers","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-bets","tag-nfl-predictions","tag-raiders","tag-sports-betting"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/117229910990322016","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/994292","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=994292"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/994292\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/994293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=994292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=994292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=994292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}