{"id":998203,"date":"2026-09-11T21:06:25","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T21:06:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/998203\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T21:06:25","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T21:06:25","slug":"buffalo-bills-at-houston-texans-week-1-bold-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/998203\/","title":{"rendered":"Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, Week 1 bold predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">The wait\u2019s almost over, Bills Mafia! In a couple days\u2019 time, the Buffalo Bills will be on the field at NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans. It\u2019s a tall task for the Bills as the road team in Week 1, made more daunting by the fact that quarterback Josh Allen has never won a game (four tries) in the Texans\u2019 home stadium.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Overall, Houston leads the all-time series 8-5, dating back to the first matchup in October of 2003. The Texans have six straight home wins over the Bills in that timeframe, which includes a Wild Card playoff win during the 2019 NFL postseason run.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Will Buffalo buck history\u2019s trend and find a way to win a game in Houston? You can bet Allen will do all he can to end the suffering in H-Town. It won\u2019t be easy, with a new-but-familiar head coach in Joe Brady and a first-time NFL defensive coordinator in Jim Leonhard.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">How will all of that affect Buffalo this Sunday? Here are a few predictions I\u2019m willing to bet bear fruit for Josh Allen and company in Week 1. If you feel like getting in on the action with <a href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.fanduel.com\/navigation\/nfl\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FanDuel Sportsbook<\/a>, there are lots of ways to take your game-day experience to a new level while cheering on the Buffalo Bills!<\/p>\n<p>Bills cover spread (-1.5 | O\/U 44.5) for 1st win at NRG<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">There are a few reasons to avoid this line, and most won\u2019t need to look any further than the oddity that NFL Week 1 often is league-wide. There\u2019s also the fact that the Bills have never won in NRG Stadium, with Josh Allen holding onto four such losses. Add in a pair of young first-time lead coaches for Buffalo working their first game, and it feels like there might be too much working against them this weekend.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Yet some of those same reasons are why it might makes sense to take these odds. While most will say these should be flipped in Houston\u2019s favor, at some point history has to change course. In many ways, Buffalo was a known entity to much of the league in prior seasons, thanks to the nine-season tenure of prior head coach Sean McDermott. It\u2019s true that the NFL has also seen Brady\u2019s work as the team\u2019s previous offensive coordinator, but it was under the leadership of McDermott.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Will Brady operate a different type of system as the new leader? He\u2019s brought in Pete Carmichael as offensive coordinator, who\u2019s also comes from the Sean Payton coaching tree. Together, and with Brady still calling plays, look for Buffalo\u2019s offense to utilize certain principles Payton has made famous in his career \u2014 but with a twist perhaps the Texans haven\u2019t yet seen.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Add in what\u2019s sure to be a highly motivated Allen and we might see the Bills finally claim a W in Houston. If you\u2019re looking to wager on the O\/U of 44.5 (Bills-specific total of O\/U 23.5), consider the volatility of the first week, and that every game has equal potential to be a blowout or low-scoring defensive battle.<\/p>\n<p>Josh Allen scores 2+TDs (+900)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Book it. A motivated Josh Allen is dangerous for the Bills\u2019 opponents. There may be no better game to begin a season if the goal is to have Allen locked in from the start. He wants a win in NRG like little else. To accomplish that, Buffalo will need plenty of end zone production from Allen.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">I expect Brady to get Allen in a rhythm off the bat, which could play into an afternoon that sees him throwing at least two touchdowns, and perhaps running for another score. In fact, if things go according to plan, Allen could meaningfully flirt with scoring three-plus touchdowns (+5500) Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Getting off on the right foot in Week 1 means letting Allen take control of things. This is the way.<\/p>\n<p>James Cook III gets 100+ yards from scrimmage<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">If you\u2019ve read this far, you might be wondering if I\u2019ve even taken a second to consider the immense talent all over the Texans\u2019 defense. I have. But it\u2019s Week 1 and this is a new season. James Cook is currently -114 at FanDuel O\/U 74.5 rushing yards. Cook can get most of that total with one cut to the end zone.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">At some point, Brady will lean into the running game in an attempt to smash home a proper reminder about who led the league in rushing for 2025. Interestingly, Cook is also -114 (at publishing) to finish O\/U 19.5 receiving yards. I say he finishes over that total, perhaps north of 30 yards on the day.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Parallels have been drawn between Cook and Alvin Kamara for good reason. Cook came out of college as a premiere dual-threat player, and I expect Brady to better unleash Cook in that role this season. Cook at -105 as an anytime touchdown scorer also feels like a solid bet; while his -165 odds to lead the game in rushing yards feels similarly likely to happen.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Those are just a few quick takes, but there are plenty of more bold predictions to make. We really don\u2019t know what to expect out of Leonhard\u2019s defense yet, so that leaves room for a lot of guessing about who claims the first sack in his system, and what an aggressive scheme looks like toward turning the ball over.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">What are you willing to predict happens during Bills-Texans in Week 1?<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1upudxki _174s0un1 _174s0un0 _1mt21p01\">Think you\u2019ve got what it takes to make a play with the Buffalo Bills in 2026? <a href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.fanduel.com\/navigation\/nfl\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook now to put it to the test<\/a>!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The wait\u2019s almost over, Bills Mafia! In a couple days\u2019 time, the Buffalo Bills will be on the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":998204,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2048],"tags":[215,214,53,85590,1622,2086,7,6],"class_list":["post-998203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-buffalo-bills","tag-bills","tag-buffalo","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-buffalo-bills-analysis","tag-buffalo-bills-opinion","tag-buffalobills","tag-football","tag-nfl"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nfl\/117254447667154780","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/998203","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=998203"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/998203\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/998204"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=998203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=998203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nfl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=998203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}