In one of the most highly-anticipated hockey games of the past decade, the United States defeated Canada 3-1 in a tense affair on Saturday night to clinch a spot in the final of the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off. The defeat to the Americans puts Canada in a precarious situation ahead of their final group stage game against Finland on Feb. 17.
Related: Guide to the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off
A Canadian loss of any kind ends their tournament, while a win in overtime or shootout gives Sweden a chance to leapfrog both teams with a regulation win against the Americans in their final group game. It’s not an enviable situation to be in for head coach Jon Cooper and his players, but it’s exactly the kind of high-stakes hockey the NHL envisioned when organizing a competition to replace the annual All-Star Game.
If Canada is going to beat Finland and ultimately exact revenge against the United States in the final, it may have to do so without the services of Colorado Avalanche defenceman Cale Makar. The 26-year-old blueliner missed Saturday’s game due to illness, and his status for Monday’s game is still in doubt. If he can suit up, that would provide an immeasurable boost to Canada’s chances.
Makar’s Absence Hurts Canadian Blue Line
Makar’s absence from Saturday’s matchup forced the Canadian brass to call up 23-year-old defenceman Thomas Harley of the Dallas Stars in his place. While the blossoming Harley has been one of the league’s best offensive rearguards over the past two seasons (ninth among all defencemen with 24 goals), he cannot single-handedly replace Makar’s impact.
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)
Makar leads all defencemen in goals (22) and points (63) this season, and is a one-man zone-transition machine that otherwise does not exist on Canada’s blue line. Josh Morrissey does a decent impression, but Makar’s absence and Shea Theodore‘s tournament-ending injury in the first game against Sweden rob Canada of much of their dynamic puck-moving talent.
Canada’s executives decided to pass on bringing along younger, more attack-minded defenders such as Evan Bouchard, Vince Dunn, and Thomas Chabot in favour of experienced veterans like Drew Doughty (he of six NHL games this season), Devon Toews, and Colton Parayko.
The final shot count was 26-23 in Canada’s favour against the United States, but it was evident that the Americans’ aggressive fore-checking made life difficult for the Canadians in setting up their rush offence. Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid are also wrecking balls while moving through all three zones, but having defencemen capable of making a crisp outlet pass to keep possession is crucial in a best-on-best environment where any weak link will be quickly exposed.
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Those were intentional moves made with the hopes of reducing uncertainty in a short tournament, but Canada has quickly seen its designated offensive defencemen knocked out by injury and illness and increased the responsibilities of others who may not be comfortable in those areas. Those were the easily foreseen trade-offs made by Canada in the course of building the roster, and now the strategy seems to be backfiring at an inopportune time.
Canada Controls Its Own Destiny Against Finland
For all of the hand-wringing about Canada falling flat against their geographical neighbours, a spot in the final of the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off is still up for grabs. The team knows exactly what it needs to keep Sweden at bay, as a win in regulation would almost assuredly see them finish second in the group stage.
While the 2026 Winter Olympics are much more important in the grand scheme of things for Canada, not making the final with home-ice advantage in two of the three group games should be considered a failure. It hasn’t been a good few months for Hockey Canada as the 2025 World Juniors were also an exercise in futility for the second year running.
Makar will do what he can to play and turn the tide of momentum back in Canada’s favour. If he is sidelined once more, the game against Finland becomes much more of a toss-up.
Data courtesy of the NHL.
