With the NHL announcing that the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery will be taking place this coming Monday, all eyes will be on Erie Otters defenseman Matthew Schaefer. Schaefer is the clear favourite to be the first overall pick as a smooth skating two-way defender who wowed scouts across the league in an illness and injury shortened draft season. His skating is so strong that everything else in his game flows from it. He creates offense as a puck carrier in transition, and jukes out opponents quickly when walking the blue line. Schaefer is great at staying in front of incoming attackers, and is quick enough to recover when he does (rarely) get beaten.
He’s not a no-doubt, first overall player like we’ve had in recent years with Connor Bedard or Macklin Celebrini, but the consensus is clear at this point that he is the best player of the group. The top five or so picks are all going to have a great chance of becoming real difference makers and Schaefer is projected to be an excellent number one defenseman in The NHL.
Related: 2025 NHL Draft Guide
Today, I am going to be ranking the best teams for Schaefer to join while keeping his best interest in mind. That means the top team must have space in their depth chart for him, a chance to win important games in the near future (or a clear path toward success), quality teammates/prospects to play with, have a sensible rebuilding timeline that he fits into, among a few other factors. There isn’t a team in the NHL that wouldn’t absolutely love to add him, but some teams would be much better destinations for him than others.
I will be ranking the NHL’s 11 worst teams from the 2024-25 season, as they are the only ones with a chance at landing the first overall selection. The NHL’s Draft Lottery rules dictate that a team can only jump up a maximum of 10 spots meaning just 11 teams have any hopes of winning the right to draft Schaefer. Let me be very clear, there are no bad options here, as every team in the bottom 11 this season has the potential for greatness with the addition of a foundational player like Schaefer, and the upcoming salary cap increases are significant enough to provide every team with some real cap flexibility in the coming years.
2025 NHL Draft Lottery Logo (Photo credit: NHL PR)
Without further ado, let’s take a look at which NHL teams would make for the very best landing spots for Matthew Schaefer.
11. Buffalo Sabres – 6.5%
I believe that the Buffalo Sabres would be the worst fit for Schaefer in this year’s draft lottery. Not only do they have the dark cloud hanging over them of the NHL’s longest ever playoff drought, but there just isn’t a spot for him in their depth chart that makes sense.
The Sabres have two recent first overall picks who are both left handed defenders in Owen Power (2021 Draft) and Rasmus Dahlin (2018 Draft), and Schaefer would become the third. While it may be an embarrassment of riches in a way, it also limits each of those three players’ effectiveness, limiting their minutes and special teams time.Â
10. Pittsburgh Penguins – 5%
This would be a key piece of evidence for draft-lottery-truthers who are convinced the NHL rigs the draft lottery every year to save or improve certain franchises. The Penguins are a team with an aging core and no clear path to success in the near future aside from some potential massive free agency additions and a miraculous bounce-back from Tristan Jarry.Â
Maybe that’s the kind of turnaround that GM Kyle Dubas can perform, but the Penguins are in an awkward spot, caught between trying to turn over their roster to be competitive again and respecting the fans, franchise, and players as guys like Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby approach retirement.Â
That’s not exactly an awesome environment for a young star defender like Schaefer. The prospect pool in Pittsburgh is pretty bare at the moment and it would likely take a good number of painful rebuilding seasons before Schaefer even sees the playoffs for the first time if he went to the Penguins.
9. Nashville Predators – 11.5%
The Nashville Predators are in a pretty tough predicament of their own making. They have committed heavily to an older core of players, with Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei (who were all signed by the Preds on July 1, 2024) combining to take up just over $20 million against the cap for at least the next three years. That trio didn’t return enough value for the money the team has committed to them and that makes it really tough to build a winning team in a league with a hard cap.
Steven Stamkos, Nashville Predators (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)
If they can’t build a strong enough team again in that period, they could be at risk of losing Roman Josi, the greatest player in franchise history to retirement as he would turn 38 in the Summer of his final season on contract. Joining a team that greatly underperformed expectations and shows few signs of bouncing back significantly is never a great thing for a young player, though I do think playing behind Josi for the first few years of his career would be great for Schaefer both as an insulator, allowing him to succeed in easier minutes, and as a wonderful player and professional to learn from and emulate for the rest of his career.Â
8. New York Rangers – 3%
The New York Rangers have committed to their roster about as much as a team can, with less than $10 million in projected cap space to use this coming offseason, with a healthy amount of that earmarked for K’Andre Miller’s next contract. After winning the Presidents’ Trophy in the 2023-24 season, the Rangers failed to even make the playoffs this year, and could be in for quite a few painful seasons in the near future.Â
Related: 2025 NHL Draft Rankings – Horn’s Top 64 for April
I wouldn’t be shocked to see this Rangers team make the playoffs a few more times, especially with the addition of someone like Schaefer, but most of the team’s best players are aging and unlikely to have their best seasons ahead. Miller and Adam Fox could use some help on the back-end, and Schaefer’s versatility on special teams would be a huge help, but I know we can do better.
7. New York Islanders – 3.5%
The New York Islanders have had a strange decade, but hope has been restored to their fanbase with the Lou Lamoriello era officially coming to an end. For years this has been a team synonymous with old-school hockey, signing players on the wrong side of 30 for long-term deals, handcuffing the team’s financial flexibility.Â
That isn’t exactly the case anymore with the Isles about to tap into a massive amount of cap space, roughly $28 million this offseason and closer to $50 million the summer after that. Of course, that doesn’t include the deal the team needs to sign Noah Dobson to, but I digress. The 2025-26 Islanders will have two strong top-six centers in Matthew Barzal and Bo Horvat, as well as a goalie who has, at times, been elite in the NHL with Ilya Sorokin. Adding Schaefer to the defensive group here would be a massive boost, putting the franchise’s next management group in a good position to build a contender around a promising core.
6. Boston Bruins – 8.5%
The Boston Bruins are a difficult team to gauge at this point. They could be back in the draft lottery next year, looking for an early pick, or they could bounce back well and be competing in the playoffs 12 months from now. A healthy year from Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm as well as a full training camp and preseason for Jeremy Swayman will likely go a long way in returning the Bruins to the NHL’s postseason, and the addition of Schaefer to their defensive group could be massive.
Behind Lindholm and McAvoy, Boston’s defensive group falls off pretty quickly in terms of puck moving and hockey IQ. Schaefer has both in spades and would quickly become an important factor for them on the backend. With McAvoy and David Pastrnak firmly in the prime of their careers, I think the addition of Schaefer could help the Bruins return to contention for a Stanley Cup in a few seasons.
5. Philadelphia Flyers – 9.5%
The Philadelphia Flyers landing this high might be a surprise to some, but I’ll give you my entire argument for why this would be a great fit for Schaefer in just two words:
Okay, I’ll elaborate a bit. It’s true that this team hasn’t been great in some time, but also hasn’t been able to accumulate a massive amount of young talent either. However, in just two or three years this franchise will be a complete blank slate (cap-wise) for GM Danny Briere to turn into whatever he wants.Â
Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia Flyers (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)
Now for Michkov, who was the Flyers’ second-leading scorer this season as a 20-year-old rookie. Michkov is an elite offensive talent, with the skill, timing, and killer instinct to be the best forward on a Stanley Cup winning team. I think a duo of Michkov and Schaefer is enough to build on that the Flyers could quickly begin to turn their ship around and make their way back into the playoffs soon.
4. Seattle Kraken – 7.5%
After making the playoffs in just their second season as a franchise, the Seattle Kraken have been a bit aimless. Toiling away on the border between the true tanking teams and the mushy middle is not a great spot to be for a team with a ton of great depth but a need for elite talent at the top of their lineup. All this to say, adding a player of Schaefer’s caliber who could become a high-end two-way horse like Miro Heiskanen or Jake Sanderson would be massive.
The Kraken have a ton of U25 talent from Shane Wright and Matty Beniers to prospects like Berkly Catton and Jani Nyman. I do expect some of their forward prospects to be difference makers in their top-six soon, especially Catton who I think could become a strong top-line forward for a long time. The league’s newest franchise with a beautiful new arena and a ton of young talent to develop alongside would be a great fit for Schaefer.
3. Anaheim Ducks – 6%
The Anaheim Ducks have spent the past handful of seasons watching the draft lottery with baited breath, without a ton of lottery luck to show for it. They have shown signs of finally pusing out of the NHL’s basement in the past and then slipped back down the standings, but the growth that this young team showed down the stretch in the 2024-25 season was encouraging. Players like Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish saw their production increase significantly, and defender Jackson LaCombe emerged as a potentially elite piece.
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While LaCombe provides a bit of competition for minutes with Schaefer as both play on the same side of defense, I think it would also provide the opportunity for a bit more specialization. LaCombe was Anaheim’s most used defender on the power play last season, and their second-most used on the penalty kill. With Schaefer in the fold, they could balance out each others’ weaknesses and strengths, giving the Ducks a powerhouse on the backend at all times for a combined 45-50 minutes each night. I think this Anaheim team is just a few years away from being really dangerous regardless of where they land in this year’s lottery, but landing Schaefer would likely fast track that process.
2. Chicago Blackhawks – 13.5%
The Chicago Blackhawks won the Connor Bedard lottery back in 2023, but haven’t been able to put enough talent around him just yet to be remotely competitive. They have a ton of talented young players in guys like Frank Nazar, Oliver Moore, and Artyom Levshunov who will all be impact players in the NHL sooner than later. However, they haven’t gone out and spent big time in free agency at all in the Bedard era, something that they will have a ton of flexibility to do with over $30 million of uncommitted cap space for this offseason and over $80 million of open space the summer after that.
With Schaefer on board, the Blackhawks would have the bones of an excellent defensive group in him, Levshunov, and Kevin Korchinski. That will leave them free to focus on upgrades to their forward group, even taking a big swing on someone like Mitch Marner in free agency, since they will be able to make a massive offer that many teams will struggle to match. In Chicago, Schaefer would instantly be surrounded by high-end talent and the whole group of players will come of age together.Â
1. San Jose Sharks – 25.5%
The San Jose Sharks were a wild team this season, somehow capable of holding the top odds in the lottery as the league’s 32nd place team despite showing more fire and potential than any other team in that range of the standings. Obviously this new era of Sharks hockey is centered around Macklin Celebrini, who was even better than most expected as a rookie, looking the part of a legit top-line center at age 18. Will Smith also looked really good later in the year after a rough start to his rookie year.
Matthew Schaefer, Erie Otters (OHL Images)
This Sharks team has a ton of skill up front with Celebrini, Smith, William Eklund, and more on the way, they have a goaltending prospect who looks like a future high-end starter in Yaroslav Askarov, and they have a defenseman who looks like he could become a legit number one guy in Sam Dickinson. Add Schaefer to that equation, giving the Sharks two guys on the backend that they can trust when the minutes are tough and the game is on the line, and they could be a dynasty in the making.Â
I can’t picture a better spot for Schaefer to land than San Jose, where he would join some of the best young players in the NHL and potentially make a massive jump in the standings next season.