Bill Parcells — the legendary NFL coach — once declared, “You are what your record says you are.”
Parcells’ remarks might have been more suitable for the NFL than the NHL. Among the men’s major professional sports leagues, the NHL is unusual for rewarding teams during the regular season that have overtime or shootout losses.
The NFL and the NBA do not distinguish overtime losses from regulation losses. Similarly, the records of MLB teams do not separate their extra-inning losses. Conventional thinking is that a loss is a loss. But for the NHL, a win is a win (two points are awarded regardless of whether a win happens during regulation or extra time), while a loss is not always effectively a loss (one point is awarded to teams losing in overtime or a shootout).
Why does the NHL use such an unusual points system to determine the standings and rank its teams? One explanation is that the prevailing points system serves to inflate each team’s record, making them appear better than they really are. Only nine teams, among the NHL’s 32 franchises, had records this season with a winning percentage under .500.
In contrast, 15 of the NBA’s 30 teams had losing records.
It’s often said that winning is an important driver of attendance at games. It’s strategically understandable, then, that the NHL makes use of its points system. A much greater percentage of its fan bases are likely to have favourable impressions that their teams are having “good” seasons.
While the NHL points system is understandable from a marketing perspective, questions remain about how effectively teams are ranked in determining who qualifies for the playoffs.
With the NHL playoffs underway — and given how atypical the NHL’s approach is to establish its standings — we undertook the exercise of recalculating the standings if ties were still observed and overtime wasn’t played during the regular season.
The outcome is that different teams would qualify for the playoffs if awarding two points for a win, one point for a tie, and zero points for a loss. The NHL previously used such a points system.
In the Eastern Conference, the New York Rangers would qualify for the playoffs, and the Montreal Canadiens would not. Montreal’s record this season was 30-31 in regulation and 10-11 in overtime. New York’s record was 35-36 in regulation and 4-7 in overtime. Further, Montreal had a goal differential of -20 compared to New York’s +1. With a better goal differential and five additional wins in regulation, the Rangers were arguably the better hockey team.
In the Western Conference, the Calgary Flames would qualify for the playoffs, while the St. Louis Blues would not. The Blues had a 32-30 regulation record, and they were 12-8 in overtime. Meanwhile, Calgary’s record was 31-27 in regulation and 10-14 in overtime. Based on their records, it is arguable that Calgary was a better team than St. Louis. Still, their goal differentials would suggest otherwise (+21 for St. Louis and -13 for Calgary).
Ultimately, five of Canada’s seven NHL teams qualified for this year’s playoffs. While it’s not objectionable that the Habs — as a young, upstart team and historic franchise — made the playoffs, it’s unfortunate that the Flames did not.
There’s been a lot of talk that the Stanley Cup is long overdue to return to Canada. A Canadian-based NHL team has not won the Stanley Cup since 1993.
Regardless of the points system used, the teams’ records this season point to the Winnipeg Jets being the best contender.
Timothy Dewhirst is a professor and senior research fellow in marketing and public policy at the Gordon S. Lang School of Business and Economics at the University of Guelph. Adam Metzler is an associate professor in the department of mathematics at Wilfrid Laurier University