The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators meet in Game 4 of an Eastern Conference first-round series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs Saturday. Puck drop at Canadian Tire Centre is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Maple Leafs vs. Senators odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Playoff series: Maple Leafs lead 3-0

The Maple Leafs opened the series with a 6-2 beatdown of the Senators in Game 1. Toronto wasn’t particularly impressive in Game 2, blowing a 2-0 lead, but C Max Domi sent the home folks away happy with an overtime winner.

In Game 3, as the series shifted to Canada’s capital city, Senators RW Claude Giroux excited the home fans with a power-play goal at 1:38 of the second period to make it 1-0. However, LW Matthew Knies picked up a power-play goal of his own to level things 1-1.

In the third period, C Auston Matthews made his presence felt with an even-strength goal, as RW Mitch Marner picked up his fifth assist of the series. Sens C Brady Tkachuk tied it up at 11:22 of the third period, forcing OT, as Giroux added an assist, with D Tyler Kleven grabbing a secondary assist. In the extra session, though, D Simon Benoit ended up as the hero, with a helper to Matthews, as Toronto pushed Ottawa to the brink.

Toronto has prevailed in all 4 previous postseason meetings with Ottawa and now stands on the brink of a fifth playoff series victory over its provincial rival.

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Maple Leafs at Senators odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:50 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Senators -115 (bet $115 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275) | Senators -1.5 (+220)Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: -118 | U: -102)Maple Leafs at Senators projected goalies

Anthony Stolarz (21-8-3, 2.14 GAA, .926 SV%, 4 SO – regular season) vs. Linus Ullmark (25-14-3, 2.72 GAA, .910 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)

Stolarz has made his first 3 NHL postseason starts in this series, and he has recorded his first 3 career postseason victories in this series. He was a backup last season for the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, getting into 1 game in relief. Stolarz is 3-0-0 with a 1.95 GAA and .926 SV% against the Senators through 3 games. Including the regular season, Stolarz has won 11 straight starts since March 20.

Ullmark has allowed overtime game-winning goals in each of the past 2 starts, while going 0-3-0 with a 3.91 GAA and .815 SV% in this series. If you’re wondering, the backup is Anton Forsberg, but he is unlikely to be an option for Game 4, although he could be on standby if Ullmark struggles early.

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Maple Leafs at Senators picks and predictionsPrediction

Senators 3, Maple Leafs 2

The SENATORS (-115) are worth a roll of the dice in Game 4 with their season on the line. Ottawa should have some pride, avoiding the broom, sending this series back to Toronto for at least a Game 5. We’ve seen stranger things from the Maple Leafs in the past, so nothing is ever a given.

Still, the Sens appear to be the elixir to cure the playoff ills for the Leafs, as Toronto is on the verge of advancing to the second round for just the second time since 2004.

The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275) are too expensive to back on the puck line as the slight underdogs, costing you nearly 3 times your potential return. That’s way too much risk and not nearly enough reward.

If you like Toronto to complete the sweep, just back it straight up.

AVOID.

UNDER 5.5 (-102) is worth a look in Game 4 of this series.

The Senators are on the brink of elimination, so they figure to play a very careful game. They’re unlikely to take a lot of chances on offense, at least early on, as they don’t want to risk odd-man rushes the other way with the season on the line. Conversely, look for Ottawa to tighten up its defense even more so than the past 2 games of this series, as there might not be a tomorrow for the Senators.

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