There’s no shortage of speculation about the future of Pittsburgh forward Bryan Rust, 33. Rust has three years left on a deal that pays $5.125 million per year. Rust has no trade protection clauses whatsoever, so he could go to any team, which has many a reporter, blogger and fan around the NHL hoping he’ll end up in their city.
Such speculation has spread to Edmonton, where the Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson said the Oilers would like to acquire Rust, even if such a trade would be difficult to make. “I said they would like Rust. I didn’t say anything about what they would have to give up.”
On the Hello Hockey show on Edmonton Sports Talk, host Tom Gazzola and NHL insider David Pagnotta of the Fourth Period also discussed Edmonton’s future moves.
Said Pagnotta of the Oilers: “They are looking for another Top 6 guy. Now how the hell they pull it off with their (cap) dollars — like they’re $300,000 within the cap. But you know all these teams including the Oilers are looking to make these types of additions.”
Pagnotta then mentioned Pittsburgh as one team willing to move out players, including Rust and fellow scoring forward Rickard Rakell. “They’re willing to sell, but it’s a high price. So, that’s why there’s not really much going on (right now).”
On Oilers Now today, host Bob Stauffer didn’t seem bullish on the notion that any big move was coming this summer for the Oilers, though he did say that maybe by October the Oilers might be able to move out a forward under contract. “I don’t think there’s anything pending, though. Just know things can change. Situations are fluid.”
Roster
My take
1. No surprise to hear that the Oilers are interested in Rust. Which team isn’t? What would be surprising is for Rust to end up here. He’s got no trade protection whatsoever, so he even if he wanted to force a trade to a contending team like Edmonton, he’s got no leverage to push for such a move.
2. Why is it unlikely he’d come to Edmonton? All kinds of teams have the cap space needed to take on Rust’s contract for the next three years. The Oilers do not. If Pittsburgh wants to be clear of Rust without having to cover any of his salary, they’ll move him to a team with ample cap space.
3. Most experts who rank NHL prospects indicate that Edmonton has fewer top prospects than other teams. That means other teams who want Rust just as bad as the Oilers can offer more to get him, one more reason he’s not likely to be coming to Edmonton.
4. As I see it, at the trade deadline the Oilers are going to have room to make on big trade. They’ll give up their 2027 first round pick to do so and use whatever cap space they can muster by then. It’s possible that Rust might be available then, but it’s unlikely Edmonton would win the bidding war for him.
5. It’s also the case that cap space will be tight in Edmonton in years to come. Rust is 33 next year, then 34 and 35 in the final two years of his deal. Unless Edmonton can find a way to move out a major contract, they won’t likely be able to afford Rust under the cap in years to come.
Rust is a decent to be a good player for a few more years (see chart below for scoring totals for NHL forwards aged 32 and over), but the key for Edmonton is to figure out a way to compete with younger, cheaper players.
That means Edmonton betting on forwards like Ike Howard, Matt Savoie and Vasily Podkolzin, and hoping that their own older veterans such as Zach Hyman, Adam Henrique and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can keep coming up big in the playoffs.
stats
At the Cult of Hockey
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