Everyone knows that the New Jersey Devils’ offense was not good enough last year. To be more specific, their even-strength offense was not good enough, as their power play production was actually elite. We’ve said it a million times already on this site, but the primary reason the offense was not good enough was because of the bottom six. Injuries of course played a part as well, but too many nights last season, the Devils dressed players that just could not generate anywhere close to an acceptable level of offense.
General manager Tom Fitzgerald knew this, and in his end of season press conference, he declared “We won’t be coming back with the same group, I could tell you that, because it wasn’t good enough”. Well Fitzgerald stayed true to his word and overhauled the forward group. Erik Haula was traded to the Nashville Predators, and Tomas Tatar, Nathan Bastian, Daniel Sprong, Curtis Lazar, and Justin Dowling were all let go in free agency. In their places come Connor Brown, Evgenii Dadonov, and Juho Lammikko via the free agent market, Thomas Bordeleau via trade, and Arseni Gritsyuk (and possibly Lenni Hameenaho) via the prospect pool. Fitzgerald also qualified and then extended Cody Glass after his market heated up right before the new league year began.
Not all of these players will start the season with the big club, and not all of them will be fixtures in the bottom six. But even if, say, Dadonov spends most of his time on one of the top two lines, that means someone from the top six needs to slot further down the lineup, giving the third or fourth line yet another new look.
The bottom six wasn’t the only part of the team that wasn’t pulling their weight offensively, though. The Devils’ blueline, while successful in their primary goal of playing defense, did not offer enough offense themselves. After missing most of the previous season with a pectoral injury, Dougie Hamilton returned and contributed nine goals in 62 games. If he had played closer to a full season, he probably would’ve scored two or three more, but as it was, nine just wasn’t good enough from the club’s top defenseman.
And the unfortunate part of Hamilton’s goal-scoring was that while he disappointed by failing to reach double digits, he was actually the most productive blueliner in this regard. Luke Hughes scored seven goals, Brett Pesce scored three, Brenden Dillon and Jonas Siegenthaler each scored two, and Johnny Kovacevic scored a goal all the way back in the season opener in Prague against the Sabres, then played 80 games the rest of the season without scoring again. It’s true that other than Hamilton and maybe Hughes, goals are not one of the major focuses of these players. But it’s still hard to be satisfied when Pesce, Dillon, Siegenthaler, and Kovacevic scored a combined eight goals in 290 total games between the four of them. They made up for it by playing varying levels of strong defense, but the complete dearth of goal-scoring from the defense corps put almost all the offensive responsibility on the forwards, who clearly were unable to handle it.
What about the depth defensemen? The two most notable ones, Seamus Casey and Simon Nemec, put up four and two goals respectively in comparatively little time, which is good. But I can guarantee you with 100% certainty that Casey will not be posting a shooting percentage of 33% again. And in Nemec’s case, his lackluster play in every other facet of his game tanked his value so much that the coaching staff did not trust him enough to put him in position to score many goals.
Put simply, unless your name was Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, Stefan Noesen, or Paul Cotter, you did not score enough goals. Even this list could be nitpicked, as plenty of Devils fans still want more from Meier (and I don’t think they’re being unfair), Noesen went ice cold once the calendar flipped to 2025, and while Cotter chipped in 16 goals, he also posted a paltry six assists to go along with mediocre on-ice impacts. Even Hughes left fans wanting more, as he missed exactly 20 games due to a major shoulder injury for the second season in a row. And if you really want to be a hard grader, while Bratt did register a fantastic 88 points, he only scored 21 goals. So congratulations to Hischier and his career-high 35 goals, he was the only player who nobody could reasonably complain about this past season.
So as we gear up for the 2025-26 season, what can we realistically expect from each individual player as far as goal-scoring goes? What would it look like to exceed expectations within the realm of possibility? What would qualify as a disappointment? Today, we’re going to go through the roster and try to assign a range of realistic outcomes (from disappointing to pleasantly surprising) to each player. It won’t be a perfect science of course, but this should hopefully give us a decent gauge on what to expect this season.
Let’s begin:
Forwards
Nico Hischier
2024-25 Goal total: 35
Career high: 35 (2024-25)
82-game average: 26.6
As mentioned, Hischier reached a new level in 24-25, hitting the 30-goal plateau for the second time and setting a new career high with 35 tallies. His total shots on goal was not an aberration, but his shooting percentage of 18.7% was (his career mark entering 2024-25 was 12.4%). He’ll probably take a small step back in shooting efficiency, though it’s reasonable to expect that he might be getting better as a shooter now that he’s entering his prime. He might even be able to hit 40 goals, and it wouldn’t take a crazy amount of luck to do it. I’ll say he takes a small step back while still being one of the primary scorers on this team.
Expectation: 30 goals
Realistic ceiling: 40 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 25 goals
***
Jack Hughes
2024-25 Goal total: 27
Career high: 43 (2022-23)
82-game average: 31.4
I am not ready to call Jack Hughes injury-prone. That being said, I cannot deny the reality that he has now missed significant time in three of the last four seasons with significant shoulder injuries. I still think these are more fluky than anything, as each time he’s gotten hurt it’s taken an awkward crash into the boards to do it. If he can avoid that this upcoming season, he’ll be golden. And really, injuries are the only thing I can see holding Hughes back this season. When he’s on the ice, he’s been everything the Devils could have hoped for. For the second straight year, Hughes played exactly 62 games and scored exactly 27 goals, a roughly 36-goal pace over a full season. 2025-26 will be his age-24 season, meaning he’s most likely entering his physical prime now. I’ll bet on Hughes and say he plays a full season. And I’ll also say he picks up right where he left off.
Expectation: 35 goals
Realistic ceiling: 45 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 27 goals
***
Timo Meier
2024-25 Goal total: 26
Career high: 40 (2022-23)
82-game average: 28.7
In his first two full seasons in New Jersey, Meier has scored 54 goals. That’s very close to his career average and very strong production in a vacuum. But we don’t live in a vacuum, now do we? The context around Meier is that he’s the team’s highest-paid forward, he’s never reached the 30-goal mark like he did three different times with San Jose (I’m counting the 31 goals he scored in 2022-23 before coming over to the Devils at the trade deadline), and he only seems to heat up in March. He’s not a sniper, he scores his goals by being a volume shooter (he led the Devils with 238 shots on goal last season and put up a 10.9% sh%, which is also his career mark). He scored 35 goals in 2021-22 on 326 shots and a 10.7 sh%, and 40 total goals between the Sharks and Devils in 2022-23 on 327 shots and a 12.2 sh%. So it’s not as if Meier has forgotten how to shoot the puck well, he’s just taking far fewer shots than in San Jose. He was The Man with the Sharks, which is probably the biggest difference between San Jose and New Jersey. With much less power play time and more high-end teammates that don’t defer to him as much, I don’t know if it’s realistic to expect Meier to get back to 300+ shots again. I know a lot of you might not want to hear it, but what we’ve seen from him in his first couple of seasons in New Jersey might be what we get. He can probably reach 40 again if everything breaks right, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Expectation: 27 goals
Realistic ceiling: 35 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 25 goals
***
Stefan Noesen
2024-25 Goal total: 22
Career high: 22 (2024-25)
82-game average: 14.8
Noesen put up a career shooting year in 24-25 in terms of total goals, shots on goal (165), and sh% (13.3%). It’s true that he fell off a cliff like the rest of the offense once the calendar flipped to 2025, but he still had the best overall year of his career by far. I think it’s unrealistic to expect him to repeat his 2024-25 performance, though if he continues to be an ace on the power play, he could do it. For now, I’ll say he takes a step back, though not a huge one.
Expectation: 15 goals
Realistic ceiling: 22 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 10 goals
***
Jesper Bratt
2024-25 Goal total: 21
Career high: 32 (2022-23)
82-game average: 22.3
Bratt set a franchise record for assists in a single season with 67, so while his 21 goals are a bit low, his overall production was stellar. That said, it would help if Bratt could find the back of the net more himself. He shot very close to his career norm (12.2% career sh%, 11.7% in 2024-25) so he probably doesn’t have much room for positive regression there. But he failed to reach 200 shots on goal for the first time since 2021-22, so it’s realistic to expect Bratt to fire more rubber on net this upcoming season. He’s reached 30 goals once, and he’s usually good for a goal total in the mid-to-high-20’s, so let’s say he puts up a few more tallies this season, but nothing crazy.
Expectation: 25 goals
Realistic ceiling: 35 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 20 goals
***
Dawson Mercer
2024-25 Goal total: 19
Career high: 27 (2022-23)
82-game average: 20.7
Perhaps more than any other player on this roster, Mercer’s goal and point totals will rely on who he plays with. That makes it difficult to come up with realistic expectations for him considering the wide range of outcomes here. There’s a big difference being a third-line center playing with third-line wingers, and being a top six winger playing with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, or Nico Hischier and Timo Meier. I know a lot of Devils fans are penciling Mercer into the 3C role right now, but I’ll trust my gut and say Sheldon Keefe’s deployment of him last season shows that he does not trust Mercer to center his own line. He’ll play mostly on either the Hughes or Hischier line, and if he does, he should be good for another 20-goal campaign. He’s entering his prime, so it’s not totally unrealistic that he gets back to his 2022-23 peak either. But for now, we’ll stick with his career norms.
Expectation: 20 goals
Realistic ceiling: 30 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 18 goals
***
Paul Cotter
2024-25 Goal total: 16
Career high: 16 (2024-25)
82-game average: 14.4
If you remove his outlier 2023-24, Cotter has shot a remarkable 17.5% in his career. The problem is he only played seven games one of those seasons, and he barely shoots the puck in general, only reaching triple digits once (exactly 100 SOG in 2023-24). He has so much raw ability, but even though he’s got high-end tools like his hands and his skating, he’s been unable to put them all together to become a true impact player. He probably takes a step back this year, showing that his early-season heater from 2024-25 was more fluke than reality. Let’s say his goal total gets cut in half.
Expectation: 8 goals
Realistic ceiling: 16 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 5 goals
***
Ondrej Palat
2024-25 Goal total: 15
Career high: 23 (2013-14)
82-game average: 17.6
Palat and his impact (or lack thereof) has been talked about to death around these parts, so I won’t go deep into the weeds here. I’ll just say that despite a modest goal total of 15 from this past season, I expect a step back once again. He almost certainly won’t be playing with Hughes and Bratt a lot again, and if he’s getting bottom six minutes, his already shaky offense will suffer in the company of lesser linemates. Yes it’s true that he would be facing weaker competition if he’s not in the top six anymore, but I don’t think that makes up the difference to get him back to 15 goals.
Expectation: 8 goals
Realistic ceiling: 15 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 5 goals
***
Cody Glass
2024-25 Goal total: 6
Career high: 14 (2022-23)
82-game average: 11.4
If I work under the assumption that Mercer will be on the wing in the top six, that means Glass will most likely be the third-line center. I have my concerns with him in that role, but for now he’s the best option Keefe has. He looked pretty good after coming over at the trade deadline, but he only scored two goals while with the Devils. Still, he’s only played more than 70 games once in his career, which was 2022-23 when he posted a career-high 14 goals with Nashville. He did only score six total last year in 65 games between Pittsburgh and New Jersey, but considering how promising he looked post-deadline, and with a much stronger supporting cast, it’s possible Glass can take another small step. A big part of the Devils’ offense hinges on him. Unfortunately, I’m a little pessimistic on Glass as a scorer (even if I think he can provide value in other ways), so I’ll predict that he won’t provide the level of goal-scoring punch the Devils need.
Expectation: 8 goals
Realistic ceiling: 15 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 6 goals
***
Evgenii Dadonov
2024-25 Goal total: 20
Career high: 28 (2017-18 and 2018-19)
82-game average: 21.7
Now we get to the newcomers. We start with Dadonov, who was part of a deep Dallas Stars team that made it to the Western Conference Final last season. At 36 years old, what you see is what you get with Dadonov. He’s past his peak goal-scoring abilities, but he can still fill the net, registering 20 last year. Whether Dadonov rides shotgun with Hughes or Hischier, or is tasked with providing scoring punch on the third or fourth line, I don’t think it’s a stretch to expect Dadonov to give a huge boost to New Jersey’s scoring depth. Let’s put it this way: if you combine Tatar, Bastian, Lazar, and Dowling from 2024-25, you get 15 total goals in 233 total games. I think it’s reasonable to think Dadonov can cover those 15 goals all by himself.
Expectation: 15 goals
Realistic ceiling: 20 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 10 goals
***
Connor Brown
2024-25 Goal total: 13
Career high: 21 (2020-21)
82-game average: 14.6
Aside from four games with Washington in 2022-23, this will be the first time Brown will be playing for a US-based team after stops in Toronto, Ottawa, and Edmonton. He played a significant role in an Oilers team that won back-to-back Western Conference titles the past two seasons. He was coming off a torn ACL he suffered in his brief stint with the Capitals, and while he really struggled initially after returning from injury in the 2023-24 campaign, he picked it up in the second half and playoffs of that season. Then he posted 13 goals while playing all 82 games last year, and he added five more in 20 postseason games. In Edmonton, Brown played both a depth role on the third and fourth lines, and a bigger role in the top six with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaital from time to time. So he’s another player like Dadonov that provides versatility as far as being able to play up and down the lineup. Let’s say he matches his output from a season ago, which I think is perfectly reasonable.
Expectation: 13 goals
Realistic ceiling: 20 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 10 goals
***
Arseni Gritsyuk
2024-25 Goal total: 17
Career high: 19 (2023-24)
82-game average: N/A
And now we get to the biggest wild card of all. I mentioned before that a big part of the Devils’ offense hinges on Cody Glass this season. I think the same could be said for Gritsyuk. While I think newcomers like Dadonov and Brown are known quantities, Gritsyuk could give us a wide range of outcomes. I think it’s realistically possible he flames out and scores something like five goals. I also think it’s realistically possible he goes supernova and reaches 30 goals. A lot will depend on who he plays with as well. The numbers above are obviously his KHL numbers, and while 17 goals last year and 19 goals as a career high are nothing to sneeze at, even these numbers undersell him a bit. His 17 goals last season came in only 49 games, and his 19-goal career high came in 50 games. Those are right around 30-goal paces over an 82 game season. For now, let’s temper our expectations and say he “replaces” Erik Haula’s 11 goals from last year. Even if you think this is low, this would still be a huge boost from just about every other depth winger from 2024-25, so Gritsyuk would still represent an upgrade.
Expectation: 11 goals
Realistic ceiling: 30 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 7 goals
***
Juho Lammikko, Lenni Hameenaho, and the rest of the depth
We won’t go into all of them individually, but the players who should fill out the rest of the forward depth this season should be able to chip in a roughly equivalent amount of offense that a lot of the bottom six players from last year did. I mentioned earlier how Dadonov alone should match the goal output of Tatar, Bastian, Lazar, and Dowling combined. Well I think the next wave of players like Lammikko, Hameenaho, Bordeleau, Shane Lachance, Angus Crookshank, and so on, can at least come close to that as well. And when your borderline roster players are close to matching your bottom six staples from a year ago, that should tell you both how bad it was last season and how much the offense should be improved.
Combined expectation: 10 goals
Combined realistic ceiling: 20 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 7 goals
***
Defense
Dougie Hamilton
2024-25 Goal total: 9
Career high: 22 (2022-23)
82-game average: 14.8
At the height of his powers, Hamilton was one of the best offensive defensemen in the entire league. He proved as much in his career-best 2022-23 campaign, and while he probably won’t be reaching those numbers again, there’s still an excellent offensive defenseman in there. Injuries have been a big part of Hamilton’s time in New Jersey, as he’s missed significant time in three of his four seasons with the Devils. I’m more inclined to call Hamilton injury-prone than I am Jack Hughes, but even with the significant knee injury he suffered last March, Hamilton did play in 64 games. That’s a lot of time missed, but it’s not like in 2023-24 when he only suited up for 20 contests. I wrote in the intro about how 2024-25 was a down year for Hamilton in the goal-scoring department. His career average sh% entering 2024-25 was 6.4%, and he only shot at 4.8% last season. He put up 186 shots on goal, which is an 82-game pace right around his career average of 235, so if he can stay healthy and improve back to his career-norm sh%, we should see a bounce back from Hamilton. And if his defensive game is going to continue to slip, then he better put up big goal and point totals again.
Expectation: 15 goals
Realistic ceiling: 20 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 10 goals
***
Luke Hughes
2024-25 Goal total: 7
Career high: 9 (2023-24)
82-game average: 9.0
Over the weekend, Chris gave us an in-depth look on expectations for Hughes this upcoming season beyond just goal totals. Whether Hughes can take the next step and be a true number one defenseman for this team in 2025-26 is an important question. For our purposes today, I’ll say that Hughes does take a step forward in the goals column. He won’t put up 20 goals (though that could be his ceiling if he has a true breakout season), but I’ll say his development continues upwards and he reaches double digits for the first time.
Expectation: 12 goals
Realistic ceiling: 20 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 7 goals
***
Brett Pesce
2024-25 Goal total: 3
Career high: 7 (2018-19 and 2021-22)
82-game average: 4.9
Pesce’s first year in New Jersey was a solid one. He started the season late after recovering from offseason surgery, but once he returned, he was a rock for this club. Paired mostly with Hughes, Pesce did his job as the complimentary, play-driving, second pair defenseman he’s always been. He’s never been a guy who will light the lamp at will, and at this stage of his career it’s highly unlikely he ever becomes that. I’ll say that he matches his output from a year ago, though I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he eclipses that mark.
Expectation: 3 goals
Realistic ceiling: 7 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 2 goals
***
Jonas Siegenthaler
2024-25 Goal total: 2
Career high: 4 (2022-23)
82-game average: 2.2
Siegenthaler provides a TON of value defensively. His play has been a little up and down since coming to New Jersey in the middle of the Covid-shortened 2021 season, primarily due to several lower-body injuries. But when he’s on his game, like he was last year, he’s simply impossible to play against. He shuts down opposing forwards like few defensemen can, whether he’s paired with an offensive dynamo in Dougie Hamilton or a fellow shutdown man in Johnny Kovacevic. Yes, Siegenthaler is a truly elite defensive defenseman…which is great because he provides little to no offensive value. Siegenthaler will not help the Devils score more goals in 2025-26, and that’s fine. That’s not his job. So long as he continues to provide rock solid defense, Siegenthaler will be an asset to this club. Just don’t ask him to score any goals for you.
Expectation: 2 goals
Realistic ceiling: 4 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 1 goal
***
Brenden Dillon
2024-25 Goal total: 2
Career high: 9 (2023-24)
82-game average: 3.3
Like Siegenthaler, Dillon has a reputation for being stout defensively, and he also has a reputation for being an intimidating presence on the ice. His first year in New Jersey didn’t go exactly according to plan, as his raw point totals and his advanced numbers were mediocre. But he did provide some defensive value, and by all accounts he’s a good dude and a great locker room presence, which is valuable as well even if it’s not quantifiable. He posted a career high in goals the year before he came to New Jersey, but he fell back down to roughly his career average in 2024-25. I would expect more of the same this season.
Expectation: 2 goals
Realistic ceiling: 5 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 1 goal
***
Johnny Kovacevic
2024-25 Goal total: 1
Career high: 6 (2023-24)
82-game average: 3.7
It is hilarious to me that Kovacevic scored in the very first game of the season, and then didn’t find the back of the net the rest of the way. Like his primary partner Siegenthaler, Kovacevic’s job is to prevent goals, not score them. And he did that job very well in 2024-25. Unlike Siegenthaler, however, Kovacevic has shown more of a goal-scoring touch in his young career. In his two seasons prior to coming over to New Jersey, Kovacevic posted nine goals in 139 total games with Montreal. Obviously not elite numbers, but he did show signs of offensive life. Projecting Kovacevic’s goal total for this upcoming season is tricky because we don’t know how much time he’s going to miss. If he was expected to be fully healthy and play a full 82-game slate, I’d be more inclined to say we’ll see an increase in production. As it is now, let’s say he matches his output from 2024-25.
Expectation: 1 goal
Realistic ceiling: 3 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 1 goal
***
Simon Nemec
2024-25 Goal total: 2
Career high: 3 (2023-24)
82-game average: 4.7
Due to Kovacevic’s injury, Nemec appears poised to get Kovacevic’s playing time. It’s a big year for Nemec, as he’ll be a restricted free agent at the end of 2025-26. I did a deeper dive on Nemec recently, where I went over how a slew of issues (his preseason injury, a new coaching staff, and a new system to learn) could have been the perfect storm for him to put up a terribly disappointing year. Assuming he gets through the offseason healthy this time, I think Nemec can bounce back in a big way. We already saw it a little bit toward the end of the regular season and into the postseason. Meanwhile there’s at least one other believer out there, as Scott Wheeler of The Athletic is predicting a breakout for Nemec in 2025-26. Perhaps Brad Shaw can work his defensive magic again. Like Kovacevic, it’s difficult to predict how many games Nemec will play, making him similar to Gritsyuk in how wide the range of outcomes is for him. But I’ll say he does eclipse his total from a season ago, with the potential to really break out.
Expectation: 4 goals
Realistic ceiling: 10 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 2 goals
***
Seamus Casey
2024-25 Goal total: 4
Career high: 4 (2024-25)
82-game average: 23.4
The only reason I included his 82-game average is because of how hilarious it is. Anyway, Casey should mostly play in Utica this season, unlike Nemec. I think he’ll get some games with the big club, but maybe about the same number as he did last season (14). And as I mentioned in the intro, no matter how many games he plays in, I can tell you right now that he won’t be scoring on one-third of his shots again. He has a good shot, but not that good.
Expectation: 1 goal
Realistic ceiling: 5 goals
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 1 goal
***
Jacob Markstrom
2024-25 Goal total: 0
Career high: 0
82-game average: 0.0
You know what, I’m calling my shot right now: Jacob Markstrom scores a goal this season.
Expectation: 1 goal
Realistic ceiling: 2 goals(!)
Anything less than this and it’s a disappointment: 1 goal
So now that we’ve gone through essentially the entire roster, do we think this will be enough offense if each player hits their expectation? Well if we add up every player’s “expected” goal total, we get 266. For context, the Devils scored 242 goals in 2024-25, good for 20th overall in the league. That’s a 24-goal improvement, and it would have placed New Jersey 10th in the league last year, tied with Carolina. Coming in at 10th in the league in goal-scoring is still not amazing, but it’s a heck of a lot better than 20th. And honestly, I think I gave more pessimistic projections than optimistic ones, so it’s very possible I’m underestimating the Devils by projecting them for 266 goals.
But even if we can argue about the exact total, looking at the roster as it’s currently constructed, I’d say an offense that ranks around 10th in the league sounds about right. I would love for New Jersey to have an elite, top-5 level offense, but I just don’t see that happening. They can still win plenty of games if they’re in the 10-12 range though, especially if the defense and goaltending is as strong as it was in 2024-25. If that’s the case, then New Jersey should not only coast to the playoffs, they should compete for a division crown.
The big takeaway for me in doing this exercise is that the depth forwards should make a big difference. The high-end forwards are the same as last year, as are the defensemen, but the bottom six got quite the makeover. The winger depth has become much stronger in my eyes, though the center depth is sorely lacking after Hughes and Hischier. If the wingers can pick up the slack for the lack of goal-scoring I’m predicting from the centers in the bottom six, this team should be alright. If they can’t, then we might be looking at a repeat of last season. For now, I believe in the depth. Glass and Gritsyuk are the big wildcards here for me, Gritsyuk especially. We’ll see what they can provide this upcoming season.
Your Take
I can’t wait to look back on this column in April and see just how wrong I was on so many predictions, that should be fun. In the meantime, do you agree with me that the offense should be improved, even if you disagree with some of the specific projections here? Or do you think the offense takes a step back? Who do you think I’m too optimistic on? What about too pessimistic? As always, thanks for reading!