After a couple of months of dancing and going so far as to publicly admit interest, Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas had appeared to fold his hand and surrender the Penguins’ pursuit of Erik Karlsson, until the days leading to Aug. 6, 2023, when the blockbuster trade went down and the hockey world braced for one more Penguins Stanley Cup chase.

In a three-team deal with the Montreal Canadiens essentially acting as a compensated salary conduit, the Penguins received Karlsson, who was fresh from his 100-point season and third Norris Trophy. The Penguins also received Rem Pitlick, Dillon Hamaliuk, and a 2026 third-round pick.

The Penguins sent backup goalie Casey DeSmith, prospect Nathan Legare, and defenseman Jeff Petry to Montreal. And to the San Jose Sharks, who held Karlsson, the Penguins sent a 2024 first-round pick, Mikael Granlund, Jan Rutta, and Mike Hoffman (from Montreal).

The trade was hailed as a win for Dubas as he reversed the disastrous trade by Ron Hextall, which brought Granlund and his $5 million salary to the Penguins at the 2023 NHL trade deadline. Granlund very quickly and very obviously did not fit with the Penguins, registering a mere five points in 21 games.

Rutta was signed as a free agent, but injuries limited his time. General invisibility while healthy was another mitigating factor. The trade also moved Petry, who was both superfluous with Karlsson’s addition, but was also visibly slowing as age was catching him quickly.

Give up nothing, get the Norris Trophy winner. That was the widespread analysis at the time. PHN’s Dave Molinari analyzed the trade as “the prize Dubas sought and landed, Karlsson, is huge. And the price he paid was remarkably low.”

Read More: Penguins Trade Analysis: Dubas Gets His Man at Bargain Price

Two years later, there are a lot of people who have reversed course and have not only disavowed their opinions, but buried them under a pile of denial that they ever existed.

Karlsso agreed to the Penguins trade for one reason. At 33 years old, he badly wanted to win a Stanley Cup, or at least be a contender. Two years into his Penguins tenure, he has played 164 games, scored 22 goals with 109 points–which is a great canyon from his 25-goal, 101-point season prior to arriving.

He was to be the Penguins’ power play savior after it had begun to cough and sputter more than a ’78 Dodge Aspen. Instead, the Penguins cratered to a 15% conversion rate in 2023-24, and eventually removed Karlsson from the top power play in 2024-25 as it rebounded to 25.8% with Matt Grzelcyk.

Oh, it gets worse.

While Karlsson toiled on the blue line, subtly hinting that the Penguins’ system under former coach Mike Sullivan was at least a little bit ill-fitting, his game was roundly panned as detrimental to the team’s success. In fact, the eye tests, stats, and advanced analytics were not kind to the Penguins’ blue line, as they were careless with the puck and Charmin-soft in the defensive zone.

On a nightly basis, the Penguins’ goalie must have felt like they were living the nightmare of showing up to school in their underwear. The defensemen too often did little more than wave a red cape in front of rushing forwards.

The Traded Players

The 2024 first-round pick that the Penguins surrendered was 14th overall and became Konsta Helenius (Buffalo). Cole Eiserman and Michael Hage were also on the board.

Ouch.

After getting out of Pittsburgh and with some distance between him and a divorce that put a continent between him and his family (and awkwardly profiled in a Swedish magazine), Granlund again excelled with San Jose. With the beleaguered San Jose roster, Granlund put up 60 points (12-48-60) in 69 games in year one, and 45 points (15-30-45) in 52 games last season before being traded to the perennial Western Conference runner-up Dallas Stars.

Rutta has been a solid, if unspectacular, defenseman for San Jose, while Petry’s effectiveness quickly declined over the last two seasons (Montreal traded him to Detroit shortly after the trade), and he signed a league minimum deal with the Florida Panthers in July.

Legare finally had his cup of coffee in the NHL last season with the New Jersey Devils, but the heavy-shot and heavy-footed winger isn’t really an NHL prospect any longer.

Final Verdict

The final trade verdict hinges on two factors: 1. How you view the first inclusion of the first round pick. 2. If the Penguins should have been more aware or patient with Granlund, who was dealing with a heavy situation.

Helenius seems to be a solid prospect, but his ultimate success or failure shouldn’t be accounted for because we don’t know if the Penguins would have selected him. In fact, they don’t know.

So, if you take it on face value, the Penguins paid a 50 to 60-point forward and a first and second-round pick, with other players shuffled as salary balance for Karlsson. In that case, the trade gets a very negative D+.

However, if you count the first-rounder as partial payment for taking on Granlund, Rutta, and Petry, then the Penguins gave up a partial value first-rounder and second rounder for Karlsson, it gets a much different grade.

We lean toward the latter as we don’t think Granlund would have fit with the Penguins and coach Mike Sullivan. Not even a little bit. Dubas gambled the Penguins would be much better with Karlsson and the pick would be in the latter half of the first round, but lost that roll of the dice.

No one could have predicted that watching the union of Karlsson and the Penguins would be like watching a carpenter pound a square peg into a round hole. No, the concerns at the time of the trade were how it would affect fellow right-side defenseman Kris Letang and if the team could compensate for Karlsson’s laissez-faire defense.

As it turned out, there was little effect on Letang other than the power play freefall of 2023-24. Dubas cleansed the roster of nearly all of Hextall’s mistakes in one swoop and bought some magic beans with the payment. However, nothing grew, and it’s time to move on, for both parties.

The final trade grade is a B, but the mark will go down significantly if Dubas and Karlsson do not find an amicable parting before the season and Karlsson does not inhabit a spot that could be used for a young defenseman. Should that happen, the trade grade will become a flat C, as everything will have then been a wash.