What should Sharks fans realistically expect from San Jose’s young core next season?

To figure that out, San Jose Hockey Now looked at some recent comps to project statistical expectations for Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund, Michael Misa, Sam Dickinson and Yaroslav Askarov.

What are best- and worst-case scenarios? And in between?

Macklin Celebrini

Celebrini, last year’s No. 1 overall pick, enjoyed a 63-point rookie campaign as an 18-year-old.

These three No. 1 picks went in three different directions after solid 18-year-old campaigns.

Steven Stamkos (2008 No. 1 overall pick) exploded, going from 23 goals and 46 points in 2008-09 to 51 goals and 95 points as a sophomore.

Connor Bedard (2023 No. 1 overall pick) has plateaued a little, going from 61 points in 68 games as a rookie to 67 points in a full schedule last year.

Nathan MacKinnon (2013 No. 1 overall pick) slumped, winning the 2013 Calder Trophy with 63 points, before following with 38, 52 and 53-point seasons.

My prediction? Celebrini takes a leap, but perhaps not into superstardom just yet. Let’s say he becomes a point-per-game player.

No matter what happens to Celebrini next year, MacKinnon is a fantastic example of not giving up on talent too early. It took him longer than expected, but in his fifth season, he dropped 97 points and finished second in the Hart Trophy voting.

Will Smith

Smith’s rookie season started slow, but the 2023 No. 4 overall pick finished strong, putting up 18 goals and 45 points in his 19-year-old campaign.

These three top picks went in different directions after promising 19-year-old seasons.

Logan Cooley (2022 No. 3 overall pick) took a leap last year, going from 20 goals and 44 points in his rookie 2023-24 to 25 goals and 65 points.

Seth Jarvis (2020 No. 13 overall pick) didn’t produce more, going from a 17-goal and 40-point rookie season in 2021-22 to 14 goals and 39 points to follow up.

Lucas Raymond (2020 No. 4 overall pick) regressed, from 23 goals and 57 points as a rookie to 17 goals and 45 points as a sophomore.

Like the MacKinnon example, both Jarvis and Raymond found their footing as point-per-game forwards, just not immediately.

It’s fair to expect Smith to take a Cooley-like jump, crossing 60 points.

William Eklund

Eklund had a breakout campaign as a 22-year-old, putting up a career-high 17 goals and 58 points.

What’s next for the 2021 No. 7 overall pick in his third full NHL season?

J.J. Peterka (2020 second-rounder) continued to get better, notching 27 goals and a career-high 68 points last year.

Martin Necas (2017 No. 12 overall pick) plateaued, registering 36, 41, and 40 points in his first three full campaigns.

Trevor Zegras (2019 No. 9 overall pick) went south, mustering just 15 points in 31 games in an injury-filled third season, after 61 and 65 in his first two years.

I’m feeling bullish on Eklund too: I don’t think he becomes a point-per-game winger just yet, but let’s say he scores a strong 60-plus points.

Michael Misa

I might be underrating 2025 No. 2 pick Misa, but I don’t see him challenging for the Calder Trophy this year.

I do think that he will spend the entire season with the Sharks, showing plenty of production and promise.

Perhaps Misa will have a Sam Gagner-like rookie campaign? The 2007 No. 6 overall pick had 13 goals and 49 points as an 18-year-old in 2007-08.

Maybe he starts a little slower? Vincent Lecavalier (1998 No. 1 overall pick) had 13 goals and 28 points in his debut.

Or maybe he doesn’t even make it to December with the Sharks? The Ottawa Senators sent Mika Zibanejad back to Sweden after one assist in nine games in 2011-12, so the 2011 No. 6 overall pick’s entry-level contract would slide.

I think Misa cracks 30 points.

Whatever happens in Misa’s rookie year, once again, be patient. Gagner’s 49-point rookie campaign was the second-best of a journeyman-like career. Meanwhile, both Lecavalier and Zibanejad eventually became elite scorers after disappointing first seasons.

Sam Dickinson

In part because defense is such a difficult position to master, the 2024 No. 11 overall pick Dickinson might be better served going back to the OHL’s London Knights for another season.

But could Dickinson win a Calder Trophy like fellow 19-year-old blueliner Tyler Myers did in 2008-09? Myers posted 11 goals and 48 points, both still career-highs.

Or maybe Dickinson can be rock-solid for an entire season? Marc-Edouard Vlasic did that in 2006-07, playing over 22 minutes a night for the Sharks.

Or maybe the Sharks can give Dickinson a taste of the NHL, as the Los Angeles Kings did recently with Brandt Clarke in 2022-23, sending him back to the OHL’s Barrie Colts after nine NHL appearances.

Yaroslav Askarov

For the first time in his career, Askarov is going to be given the chance to be the man in net at the highest level.

The 2020 No. 11 overall pick certainly has the talent to put together a Calder Trophy-worthy campaign, like Dustin Wolf did last year. The Calder runner-up went 26-16-8 with a .910 Save Percentage, almost dragging the Calgary Flames into the Stanley Cup playoffs.

The Sharks will just be pleased if Askarov proves capable of handling a large workload as a rookie, a la Marc-Andre Fleury in 2005-06. For a still-struggling Pittsburgh Penguins squad, Fleury grinded out a 13-27-6 record and .898 Save Percentage.

It can also go another way, where the more veteran tandem goalie, in this case Alex Nedeljkovic, takes the net from Askarov. This happened in 2000-01 with the expansion Columbus Blue Jackets, when 33-year-old Ron Tugnutt, 22-25-5 with a .917 Save Percentage, got more reps than 23-year-old heir apparent Marc Denis, who went 6-20-4 with an .895 Save Percentage.

On a rebuilding Sharks squad, it’s going to be tough for Askarov to put up Wolf-like numbers. But it’s fair to expect, like Fleury in 2005-06, that Askarov makes the San Jose net his own in what will probably be an up-and-down rookie campaign.

If Askarov’s career turns out anything like Fleury’s, the Sharks will be just fine with that.

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