While this NHL offseason has been quiet on the trade front, one deal is already drawing heavy criticism. The Nashville Predators signed defenseman Nicholas Hague to a significant contract after acquiring him from the Vegas Golden Knights, but not everyone is convinced it was a smart move. One prominent analyst believes Nashville overpaid for a player who may not live up to the contract, raising serious questions about the team’s decision-making.
Why Is an Analyst Calling the Nicholas Hague Deal 1 of the Worst?
Hague was a key player for the Vegas Golden Knights after they drafted him in 2017. Over six seasons, he became a fixture on their blue line and helped the team win the 2023 Stanley Cup. But as his contract neared its end in June, the Golden Knights traded him to Nashville instead of re-signing him. On June 29, Hague signed a four-year, $22 million deal with the Predators, carrying a cap hit of $5.5 million per season.
That salary is a sharp increase from the $2.3 million he earned on his last contract with Vegas, a detail that caught the attention of analyst Dom Luszczyszyn.
In a recent report for The Athletic, he offered a scathing review of the deal, suggesting it was more of an inside joke than a savvy hockey move. “This contract feels like a tribute to the legend Bob McKenzie,” Luszczyszyn wrote. “That’s per year.” He calculated the surplus value for Hague’s contract at negative $16 million and gave it just a four percent probability of having a positive value.
This assessment is a far cry from what Nashville likely expected. Luszczyszyn drove his point home with a series of questions highlighting Hague’s resume. ”
Has Nicolas Hague ever played in the top four? No. Has Nicolas Hague ever shown top-four upside? Not really. Did Nicolas Hague have leverage as a UFA? No,” he writes.
Does Hague’s Size Justify the Price Tag?
Luszczyszyn acknowledges that the one thing clearly working in Hague’s favor is his size. At 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds, he is a powerhouse on the blue line. However, the analyst argues that physical presence alone doesn’t warrant the contract. “And that’s all there is to it,” he stated. “It seems there’s a growing trend for teams to pay defensemen per inch rather than per win lately.”
The core of the criticism is that the Predators paid for potential, not proven performance. “And that’s how Hague was paid to be a No. 3 defenseman despite a career being a third-pair guy,” Luszczyszyn explained. “Is it possible he breaks out in a larger role with the Predators?”
He argues that the Predators are betting on an unlikely breakout instead of paying for his current level of play.
Luszczyszyn continued, “I understand that size is at a premium for defenders and that Hague is worth more than the market value shown above because of it.”
However, he also pointed out that a successful team like Vegas letting him go should be a red flag. While there’s a chance Hague could develop into a solid second-pair defenseman like Brenden Dillon, one of his top comparisons, there’s also a risk. Luszczyszyn warns that Hague could just as easily end up like Andrej Sustr, Ben Harpur, or Shane O’Brien, proving that just being bigger isn’t always better, especially at such a hefty price.