We are now just under a month away from NHL training camps opening up. While it has been a slow burn of a summer with not much happening, the Calgary Flames have had to take care of a bunch of business. It included locking up Matt Coronato, Kevin Bahl, Martin Pospisil, and Morgan Frost to contract extensions that will keep the three of them in Calgary for the foreseeable future.
However, there is one key piece that is still without a new contract, and that is Connor Zary. I think many of us thought the new contract for Zary might have been the easiest to get done. But as we sit here on August 21, Zary is still without a deal heading into this season.
It would be awful for Craig Conroy and the rest of his team if they entered training camp without Zary being under contract. If the past situations have taught us anything, it would be a disaster for both the Flames and Zary.
What will Zary’s new deal look like
I think the question that has been asked since the beginning of the offseason is, “What will the new deal look like?”
At the beginning of last season and as the first part of the season was going, I was absolutely sure that I would be ready to hand Zary a new deal in the seven-to-eight-year range with an AAV of somewhere between $5.5M to $6.0M with the way he was playing. He was electric to start the year. Easily the most skilled prospect we had seen since the days of Johnny Gaudreau. He was driving play and making the opposition look silly. When they moved him down the middle, he looked the most comfortable he’s ever been since getting called up in November of 2023.
However, there were still inconsistencies in his game. Then, by no fault of his own, he suffered two major knee injuries that knocked him out for the majority of the season. The second took him out of the crucial playoff push at the end of the year.
The Flames should go for less term
If you are going to sign him, I think a bridge is the way to go. There is still a ton of upside when it comes to Zary and what he can do. I really don’t think he has even scratched the surface yet. The skill and poise are there; he has basically been a half-point per game player in the NHL. There is something there, but we need at least a full season of him being that 55 to 60 point player before committing a lot of money and years to him.
I fully expect Zary to come into this season motivated and ready to produce, but he needs a contract first. So, what will that look like? Considering a couple of the deals that have been handed out this offseason and for what some of the Flames have gotten, I would expect him to be in the range of the Frost deal. Something like three years at an AAV of $4.25M to $4.5M probably makes the most sense. The Flames will still have Zary’s RFA rights by the end of it.
Zary gets three years to prove his worth and cash in on a long-term deal. The Flames get to save a little bit of cap space. It’s a win-win for everyone involved. It just needs to get done now.
Why this needs to get done before training camp
This is where things could take a turn for the worse. We don’t know too much about what is going on between the Flames and Zary’s camp. We don’t know what the dispute in the contract is over. Is it term? Money? Maybe a bit of both? Is Zary upset that he may not get the chance to play down the middle next season with the addition of Frost? Did he not like Ryan Huska using him in a fourth-line role at times? Who knows, really, but we are getting into the late stages of the summer. The longer this continues, the more worried everyone involved should be.
Missing training camp over a contract dispute has never fared well for anyone. The player misses key time with the team to get ready for the season. Whether it’s finding chemistry on a line or learning a new system, that time is key. Not to mention, the chance to play in preseason games to get into game shape after a long summer only benefits the player. Not getting into these scenarios hurts the player more than most realize.
Other players who have held out
Thankfully, the Flames haven’t had to deal with much of that over the years. The last big holdout was in 2016 when Gaudreau was due for an extension. That deal didn’t get done until two days before the season was set to get underway. That 2016–17 season proved to be Gaudreau’s worst with the Flames. Was it all due to the holdout? No, I don’t think so, but he didn’t have the best start to his season that year and didn’t really turn it on until the second half of the season.
We all remember the William Nylander saga in Toronto that went all the way until December of 2018. He went on to have his worst statistical year of his career while also turning a large group of that fanbase against him—many still hold a grudge to this day. More recently, we saw how a holdout and missing a chunk of training camp affected Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman. He went from being one of the best goaltenders in the league to being sub-replacement level this season. This was probably in large part due to not getting a camp in before the season.
Now, I’m not saying that Zary’s situation is going to come to a boiling point like that, considering how much cap space the Flames have, but situations like this only make everyone involved look bad. This cannot happen with a player like Zary. What kind of example does that send to the rest of the team, especially when just a year from now the Flames are going to have a huge deal to make with Dustin Wolf? You surely don’t want something like that happening with him.
Get this done, soon
Like I mentioned earlier, I didn’t think this deal would be the one that would take the longest. I was sure this deal was going to be a walk in the park for both sides, especially after Coronato signed his deal back in May.
I understand the Flames don’t want to overspend—which is crazy, considering how much cap space they have—and I understand Zary wanting to get what he is worth. However, these are the type of things that ruin relationships between a team and a player. It probably played a role in Matthew Tkachuk leaving, and a lowball offer from Brad Treliving sent Gaudreau packing a year later.
If the Flames want to do this right, this deal needs to get done before camp opens up. Zary needs to be there and ready to have a big season to prove to the team that he is going to be a core piece of this group moving forward.
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