The 2024-25 season for the New Jersey Devils is in the books, and while they made some progress as an organization in terms of returning to the postseason, it is apparent that they still have plenty of hard work to do in terms of taking that next step.
The players had their say during breakup day last Friday, as they addressed the media for the final time this season. And we learned a lot of things about the team heading into the offseason, from Brett Pesce dealing with a shoulder injury during the playoffs to Jacob Markstrom being open to a contract extension to Johnathan Kovacevic potentially missing the start of next season due to knee surgery, just to name a few.
What we haven’t gotten yet are the final thoughts from GM Tom Fitzgerald or head coach Sheldon Keefe as they look back on the season. I was hoping they would have spoken by now so I could’ve used my platform this week to react to what they had to say and whether or not I agreed with it. Unfortunately, they’re not scheduled to speak until Thursday at 11am.
#NJDevils GM Tom Fitzgerald and HC Sheldon Keefe will meet with the media on Thursday at 11:00am for their end of season availability.
— Kristy Flannery (@InStilettos_NHL) May 6, 2025
Instead of reacting to what they have to say, I’m going to talk about what I would ask the team after this past season and how the Devils plan to go about addressing the holes on the roster that we’ve acknowledged time and time again. We know from Fitzgerald’s history that he’ll be aggressive in the summertime to build the roster. Last year’s flurry of moves to get bigger and tougher to play against after declaring “I know exactly what this team needs” is an example of that. That’s all well and good. But saying one thing and then executing it is another.
Here are the questions that I would hope are asked of Fitzgerald, Keefe, or both when they do talk to the media.
How Will the Devils Add More Offense To The Lineup?
The Devils have gone from 4th in the league in goals per game (3.52) in 2022-23 to 12th in 2023-24 (3.22) to 20th this past season (2.93). They were also 16th out of 16 playoff teams in goals per game (2.20), with the power play going 0-fer for the Carolina series, which is a big part of the reason why they’re no longer playing hockey this season.
The results are what they are, so what gives? Is it a talent issue? Is it a system issue? Is it bad luck because of injuries to key players? Is it a combination of all of the above?
Consider these 5v5 numbers from this past season for a moment.
Source: NHL.com & Natural Stat Trick
That would suggest to me something that I mentioned a few weeks ago when I was talking about Dougie Hamilton. That the Devils simply aren’t hitting the net enough with their shot selection, and they’re certainly not finishing the chances that they are getting. Part of the problem might be the team overpassing, “getting too cute” or trying to set up the “perfect shot”, only for someone along that sequence of events to be inaccurate with the pass, the receiver to fumble the puck or partially fan on the shot. But I think a bigger part of the problem is simply not firing enough. Not playing for redirections, tips, or rebounds is part of it, as are defensemen who are getting in the way and blocking shots. The Devils are middle of the pack in HDCF (18th) and HDCF% (13th), which suggests to me they could also stand to get to the front of the net more than they actually are. And of course, you can’t shoot the puck if you don’t possess it, and the Devils bottom six in particular spent far too much time chasing the puck around.
I’m sure of the issues here that are personnel based, the fix for that will be inserting better players into the lineup. Assuming the newly-signed Arseni Gritsyuk lives up to the billing, he’ll be an upgrade over some of the NPCs that cosplayed as Devils bottom six forwards this year. But they need more than that and it starts with upgrading at 3C.
I will say that I don’t think the problem is necessarily system-based. Keefe’s Maple Leafs teams were consistently in the Top 10 in terms of goals per game and xGF% while he was there. And while one could say the Maple Leafs elite players (Matthews, Marner, Nylander) are better than New Jersey’s (Hischier, Hughes, Bratt) when it comes to putting the puck in the net, those Leafs teams also had other issues that ultimately did them in, such as goaltending, defensive play, and star players not showing up at inopportune times. I don’t think these Devils have those issues.
That said, I do think Keefe inherited several players who probably aren’t ideal fits, at least in the bottom six. Curtis Lazar looked lost for most of the season and that was before he got injured. Same thing with Erik Haula. Nathan Bastian has never really been a great source of offense and is what he is at this stage of his career. Those are all players Keefe inherited and there’s a reasonable argument to be made that the Devils are better suited moving on from all of them as they reshape the bottom six.
Speaking of….
What Is The Identity of the Bottom Six? What Do They Want It To Be?
I alluded to this last week but it bears repeating….what is the identity of the Devils bottom six?
The answer is simply this….there is none. Or at least there wasn’t one this past season.
The Devils don’t have a Crash Line. They don’t have defensive stalwarts like Jay Pandolfo or John Madden on their fourth line. Heck, they don’t even have the CBGB line, at least when they were at their peak anyways. The current fourth line might somewhat resemble what the CBGB line looked like in 2014 well past their expiration date, which wasn’t good.
What are these lines supposed to be? What are you trying to do?
Ideally, the third line is one that can chip in enough offensively to the point where the Devils aren’t asking their top players to do everything. They’d be a line that can use their speed, get after it, and force the opposition to chase them around.
They don’t necessarily need to be that though. Maybe its a glorified checking line with a shutdown defensive center and wingers who get in on the forecheck. Or maybe we’re talking about a fourth line that might not be all that talented, but at least they’re physical and will punish you in the corners and be miserable to play against.
The Devils bottom six didn’t do any of this consistently. And when you compare it to Carolina, who clearly has an identity throughout their lineup, not just in the bottom six…its not even a fair comparison.
They have some guys who do some things well. Paul Cotter is a good skater and has a good shot, but he does nothing defensively and isn’t much of a passer. Bastian has size and will mix it up in the corners but he also has cement boots for skates. Tomas Tatar is ok defensively but probably doesn’t have much left to offer offensively at his age. Same goes for Haula.
But like I said last week, its an assortment of parts that simply don’t fit together. There’s a reason why they never could find a combination of players to form a coherent line.
I can somewhat give Sheldon Keefe a pass. This is the roster he was given to work with and we’ve talked enough about how Tom Fitzgerald didn’t do enough at the deadline to help the Devils match up better against Carolina. He can’t squeeze blood from a stone. But with that said, I’ll be curious to see what type of players they’ll be looking at this summer who might fit Keefe’s system better than what he inherited. I’m not saying “just bring in guys from Toronto that he knows”, but I do think they may look at some players who have passed through there the last few years that Keefe trusts.
So….What Happened After Christmas?
Before Christmas, the Devils were third in xGF% at 55.91% and 6th in CF% at 52.85%. They were 7th in the league in goals per game at 3.35, 6th in shots per game at 30.4, and they played some of the best defensive hockey we’ve seen from this team in years. They also racked up impressive wins against some of the top teams in the league like Florida (twice), Washington (twice), Carolina (once, the second win was after Christmas), Los Angeles, and St. Louis.
After Christmas, those numbers regressed to what I mentioned earlier, but more alarmingly, the team looked nothing like the team we saw jump out to a 23-11-3 start at the holiday break. They got swept on the California road trip, got annihilated when they faced Winnipeg, Colorado, and Vegas, and dropped plenty of games to bottom feeders along the way as they played out the stretch.
So, what happened there? Where not only were the results not there, but for the most part, neither was the process?
You can’t blame injuries, as Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton didn’t go down until early March and Jake Allen and Nico Daws played brilliantly when Jacob Markstrom got hurt. They might’ve had some minor injuries with guys like Haula and Lazar but the Devils should’ve been deep enough to overcome losses like that. So why did the Devils drop so many games to also-rans? Why was this team as exhausting to watch as they were?
Was this something where the league figured them out and adjusted to what they were doing once they got more tape on them? Was this something where the players got lazy after they built up a cushion and decided to only ramp up when necessary? Is it bad luck that things like puck over the glass, giving up late goals, and getting goalie’d by Mackenzie Blackwood kept happening?
At least last year when I couldn’t figure out why Jonas Siegenthaler and John Marino regressed as much as they had, there was a somewhat plausible explanation in there with injuries.
Here, I’m at a loss for words. I still don’t get it almost four months later. So I hope now that Keefe has had time to reflect on this season, there’s a reasonable explanation for why the Devils looked like one of the best teams in hockey pre-Christmas and a team that barely resembled a playoff team post-Christmas.
Are You Satisfied With How the Players Approached This Season?
Tom Fitzgerald had some ‘interesting’ comments this time last year, suggesting that the players weren’t working hard enough in the gym and rambling about the dress code, among other things.
Obviously, we’re not in the room so we don’t know who or what this exactly is in reference to (or if said players are even still on the roster), but when things like work ethic are being called into question, alarm bells are going off as far as I’m concerned. And now that we’re a year removed from those comments, I think it merits a follow up.
I believe the players had the right approach coming into camp, had the right level of buy in, and the proof was in the results early on. Obviously, the team got away from what made them successful earlier in the season, which raises the questions as to why as I already alluded to. But I do believe the players put in the requisite work over the summer to be successful this year. I do think they took the assignment seriously to put the 2023-24 campaign behind them. And I do think that matters as this team continues to learn from their failures and see how hard this actually is if you want to be successful.
What Will Luke Hughes’s Next Contract Look Like And How Close Is He To Signing?
I’ll dive into this more in the coming weeks when we start doing our RFA profiles, but to keep my thoughts on the matter brief.
I believe Tom Fitzgerald should be looking to max out term on Luke Hughes, which likely means an 8-year deal somewhere in the vicinity of what Brock Faber received from the Wild ($8.5M AAV).
Is a multi-year bridge deal something that is being considered to keep costs down short-term in exchange for long-term pain? Think something along the lines of 3 years, $5.75M AAV where the Devils continue to hold his rights at the end of said pact.
Is a one-year deal an option? Note: This should NOT be an option unless you want to roll out the red carpet for Vancouver to try to offer sheet Luke next summer.
What sort of deal will Luke be pushing for, and is it an indicator of how serious the Hughes brothers might be in terms of trying to play on the same team someday? And if so, is that team New Jersey?
I don’t expect Fitzgerald to negotiate through the media or give specific details. But I do think he knows how important Luke is to the future of the blueline. I also know since Luke can’t receive an offer sheet this summer, there’s no rush for his deal to get done at this point. The rest of the Devils moves this summer will likely tip their hand to how much they think Luke is worth by how much cap space they leave available. So we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out.
Due To Their Cap Situation, Will The Devils Need To Cut Corners In Certain Places?
We’ve talked before about the Devils needs, and we’ve talked about what they might need to do to create more flexibility. But what we haven’t talked enough about is how willing they might be to take some risks when it comes to roster construction.
AFP Analytics put out their list of contract projections for 2025-26, and while its not a be-all, end-all projection of what future contracts will look like, a few of those numbers caught my attention.
One example of which is Jake Allen, who they’re projecting at 2 years and roughly $3.5M.
I don’t really know what Allen is looking for at this stage of his career. If he’s comfortable with this being the Semyon Varlamov or Marc-Andre Fleury or Ryan Miller stage of his career where he’s a career backup in his final years of his career, that’s fine. But I think $3.5M for Allen is a non-starter, and Allen is good enough where he’s willing to go somewhere to start on a good team that could use a goalie (such as Edmonton, or perhaps even a Montreal reunion).
The one positive is that the Devils have Nico Daws under contract for next season at $812,500 to be the backup. The drawback is you run the risk of Daws turning into a pumpkin again if Jacob Markstrom, who turns 36 in January, goes down. The Devils are beyond the point where they can allow bad goaltending to sink yet another season.
Is that a risk Tom Fitzgerald is willing to take given how difficult a time he’s had finding quality goaltenders in the first place?
Then you have the middle six/bottom six forwards, and one popular solution I’ve seen is penciling in some combination of Arseni Gritsyuk, Lenni Hameenaho, and/or Shane Lachance for roster spots.
I get it. I’m as excited about Gritsyuk as the next guy. And yeah, I suppose its a possibility that Hameenaho impresses enough in training camp to win a roster spot and never look back, just as Jesper Bratt or Dawson Mercer did years ago. I don’t really know how much developing Lachance needs at the AHL level to be a big fourth line body after he played two years at BU and impressed enough to earn the captain’s “C”.
They’re also cheap options for a team that will need several players either on ELC contracts or making league minimum to fill out the bottom of the roster. And I hope the Devils aren’t rushing guys into the lineup because they’re cheap and before they’re ready.
But forget all that for a second. Let’s hypothetically pencil in those three (or some combination of three veterans making league minimum), plus Daws for NHL roster spots.
Your 2025-26 Devils roster will look something like this.
Credit: PuckPedia PuckGM Mode
That lineup would cover 21/23 NHL roster spots and leave them $10,219,167 in cap space to fill them. And obviously, Luke Hughes would eat up a big chunk of that. That does not leave enough room for a 3C upgrade, or another middle six scoring option, or heck, a backup goaltender more reliable than a relatively unproven Daws. And counting on three rookie forwards comes with its own set of challenges. I think its unlikely the Devils go that route.
Regardless, its all the more reason to cut the dead weight if you want to actually improve this roster, which brings me to my last question.
Is Tom Fitzgerald Willing To Be The Bad Guy?
If there’s one general overarching theme that would describe the type of culture the Devils have been building the last few years, it’s that they’re one big happy family.
That’s nice, but in this league, you have to be willing to be cutthroat at times.
Does Fitzgerald have that in him?
Chris Drury had that in him when he used waivers to get around Barclay Goodrow’s no trade clause and threatened waivers to get their own captain to accept a trade to Anaheim. And while we can debate whether or not that makes a destination like the Rangers less attractive, the answer to that is probably not. The rest of the team whining about the GM didn’t stop JT Miller from waiving his no-trade to go there. It didn’t stop Igor Shesterkin or Alexis Lafreniere from taking the money to stay there. And it didn’t stop a big name coach in Mike Sullivan, who has Rangers ties, from agreeing to be a part of that circus.
Vegas has a reputation for going big-game hunting. But they also have a reputation for kicking players to the curb in somewhat controversial manners. Just ask Marc-Andre Fleury or Logan Thompson or Nate Schmidt.
There’s other examples, but you get the point. Other teams have had unsavory contracts clogging up their books. But they almost always find a way out it. Its a big part of the reason I always say the salary cap is indeed fake. Any contract is movable if you try hard enough. Look no further than Pierre-Luc Dubois or Seth Jones this past calendar year. Those contracts were unmovable….until they weren’t and they got moved.
I think the Devils need to move on from Ondrej Palat and Erik Haula so they can use that money elsewhere. While I’m not necessarily endorsing it, I think given the Devils defensive depth that an argument could be made for moving on from Dougie Hamilton as well. Worse contracts than those have gotten moved in the past. I’m not saying it will be easy to move those deals….Palat and Hamilton both have NMCs and 10-team trade lists kicking in on July 1. But that’s why Fitzgerald sits in the big chair. He gets paid to make the tough decisions.
Fitzgerald showed he can play good cop when he sold Hamilton and Palat on signing in New Jersey as UFAs (and Haula on an extension). He gave the pitch on how New Jersey is an unknown gem and how they have the best travel in the league and everything else he said to get them to put pen to paper.
But can Fitzgerald play the bad cop now that Palat and Haula are arguably holding the team back and that money really needs to be reinvested in a 3C upgrade and/or a scoring winger? For that matter, does Fitz even see either of them as part of the problem? We shall see.