The 2025-26 NHL sesaon is rapidly approaching and that means it is time to start looking ahead to some projections for players on the Pittsburgh Penguins roster. Specifically, a return of our over/under looks.
We get those started today with a look at some of the Penguins youngest players on this year’s roster and what might be reasonable expectations for them.
Our over/under numbers were pretty accurate for the 2024-25 season, so let’s see how we do this season.
Ville Koivunen: Over/under: 20.5 assists
Koivunen is one of the Penguins’ most intriguing and talented young players, and he figures to get an opportunity to play a prominent role this season.
The Penguins acquired him in the Jake Guentzel trade, and he has rapidly turned into one of their best prospects and young players. The 2024-25 season was his first full season in North America and it was an outstanding first impression.
He was one of the top rookies — and scorers in general — in the American Hockey League, recording 21 goals, 35 assists and 56 total points in 63 games. That performance eventually earned him a late-season look in the NHL where he recorded seven assists in eight games, while displaying promising creativity, vision and offensive instincts.
He is not going to main that same assist pace over an 82-game season, but he does have a chance to put up solid numbers given his skill and the fact he might have a chance to play next to some really talented players on the Penguins’ forward line.
There were only seven rookies in the NHL during the 2024-25 season that topped 20 assists over the course of the full season, while only four of them had more than 25 assists.
No matter how talented a young player is, and no matter what they do at the lower levels, there is usually a big adjustment period to the NHL and some struggles that come along with that. There is going to be some inconsistency and some dry spells.
I like his upside. I like his talent. I like his potential. I like for him to be a nice middle-six forward for a long time.
But what do you see for his first full season in the NHL?
Rutger McGroarty: Over/under: 15.5 goals
McGroarty is the best young player in the Penguins system at this point, and like Koivunen is looking to get his first taste of extended NHL action following a promising debut in pro hockey during the 2024-25 season.
McGroarty scored 14 goals with 25 assists (39 total points) in 60 games in the American Hockey League, but those numbers do not totally paint the picture of how his season went.
It was a bumpy road for him in the first half of the season, at least in terms of his offense, and when you mix in some bad puck luck it really held his numbers back. But as the season progressed his production became way more consistent and impressive, and he eventually did enough to also earn a brief late-season look with the Penguins after an initial cup of coffee to open the season.
It was highly encouraging, even if the box score numbers (one goal, two assists) did not jump off the page at you.
Like Koivunen, you have to expect that there will be some rough patches and cold streaks for him.
Can he score more than 15 goals?
There were nine rookie forwards in the NHL that scored at least 15 goals during the 2024-25 season, so it is a pretty reasonable base-line expectation. If he can reach that level, or go above it, I would consider it a strong and encouraging rookie season.
Owen Pickering: Over/under 15.5 points
Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas really challenged Pickering this offseason, saying the young defenseman needed to have a strong summer and they need him to develop into a 20-minute per night player and not a 12-13 minute per night player. That’s a big challenge, but given the Penguins’ lack of long-term depth on the left side (and a lack of short-term depth) the opportunities are going to be there for him.
Even if/when Pickering does develop into that sort of player, offense does not figure to be a huge part of his game. At least not in the form of big point totals. If he can turn into a Brian Dumoulin type player that would be a strong development for the Penguins’ defense.
In 47 AHL games in 2024-25 he recorded 13 points (two goals, 11 assists) and also had one goal and two assists (three total points) in 25 games at the NHL level.
Given those numbers, and given that even if he does play a big role he is not likely to get a lot of power play time, there should be reasonable expectations put in place here. If he can give the Penguins 15 points and play a solid defensive game, that would be an encouraging development.