With September comes the start of training camp and fantasy hockey. This article projects Bryan Rust’s point production this year. Projections are built through a model that blends scoring rates, age and team contexts, and projected durability. The Pittsburgh Penguins do not project to be an offensive powerhouse, but the top-of-the-line players, including Bryan Rust, figure to see a boost in production through special teams. For fantasy purposes, Rust is the type of player who can swing matchups in deeper leagues, offering both goal-scoring and strong secondary numbers like shots and power play points. Rust, a consistent top-six winger with power play time, is one of the Penguins most important scoring options going into the 2025-26 season.

Bryan Rust’s Projected Season
Age Curve and Team Context

At 33 years old, Bryan Rust falls into an age bracket where decline is more noticeable and expected. To account for this, our age curve applies a 0.95 modifier, reflecting a five percent dip from prime scoring levels. While not as steep as players in their later 30s, it does temper expectations for an aging winger.

Team context also plays a major role. At even-strength last season, Pittsburgh averaged 2.95 goals per game, slightly below the league average 3.01. Their 25.8% power play, however, ranked among the league’s best and provides a boost for players in scoring rates. The model weighs environments at 70% even strength, and 30% on the power play. As such, the Team Index is 1.04. For Rust, this number helps just enough in offsetting an age-related dip.

Games Played

Durability is a vital part of any projection. Rust has generally struggled through injuries in his career, which is reflected in the average we find. To balance personal history with league trends, the model uses a weighted three-year average, then regresses the result toward the league baseline of 69 games. This baseline is the mean for skates with at least 41 appearances last season.

For Rust, his games played history is:

2024–25:71 GP
2023–24:62 GP
2022–23:81 GP

His weighted result works out to 70 GP, which remains unchanged after regression to baseline. This keeps expectations realistic for a player that tends to miss stretches of time each year while generally avoiding prolonged absences. This reflects the balance between acknowledging his recent missed games while still crediting him for stronger availability a few years ago.

Points-Per-Game (PPG)

The foundation of Rust’s projection is his scoring rate, which is smoothed by weighting his last three seasons.

2024–25:65 points in 71 games = 0.92 PPG
2023–24:56 points in 62 games = 0.90 PPG
2022–23:46 points in 81 games = 0.57 PPG

Weighted at 50% for the most recent year, 30% for two years back, and 20% for three years back, Rust’s baseline scoring rate comes out to 0.84 PPG. Applying the 0.95 age modifier and 1.04 Team Index, Rust’s adjusted scoring rate lands at 0.83 PPG heading into 2025-26.

Bryan Rust’s Point Projection

Rust’s projection ties together age regression, team environment, games played, and scoring rate. At a projected 70 games and adjusted scoring rate of 0.83 PPG, Rust’s projection comes to 58 points for this 2025-26 season. This represents a step back from last-years 65-point campaign. However, it still places Rust firmly in the conversation as a reliable fantasy pick.

Bryan Rust’s point production projection is supported by the Penguins’ elite power play in addition to his regular top-six role, playing with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. As Rust’s projection is 58 points in 70 games, fantasy managers can view him as a dependable mid-round pick with modest upside if Pittsburgh’s offence performs relative to expectations.

Main Photo: Brad Penner- Imagn Images