How does Macklin Celebrini compare to recent No. 1 NHL Draft picks? Scouts, execs weigh in

One of the most common questions I get asked every year is: How does this NHL Draft compare to recent years? It is my belief that it all starts at the top, focusing on the degree of impact coming from the very first few picks, with an emphasis on the No. 1 pick. So I asked those in the industry to compare this year’s projected No. 1 selection, Macklin Celebrini, a center at Boston University, to the last nine first overall picks.

Six NHL scouts and executives were polled for this list. They were asked to rank the players from the perspective of what they thought of the prospects in their draft years. The last part is key, and hard to control 100 percent given the information we’ve gotten since then on a lot of the players and potential hindsight bias. Six voters were chosen instead of an odd number of five because Celebrini was tied with Jack Hughes after the initial five-voter survey.

1. Connor McDavid — 2015, Average Rank: 1

This was the easiest vote for the panel. McDavid was the definition of a generational prospect as a special skater with tremendous skill, hockey sense and a high compete level. He’s as close to a perfect hockey player as I’ve seen coming up as an amateur.

2. Connor Bedard — 2023, Average Rank: 2.33

Bedard has delivered on the hype behind him when healthy. He’s been Chicago’s best player when he’s in the lineup. His puck skills and offensive imagination are elite, and he has a special goal scorer’s touch while being able to play with pace and compete. The distinction between him and McDavid would be McDavid’s freak athleticism in his skating and size.

Two of the six voters preferred Matthews at the No. 2 position. Some preferred Matthews for his size and confidence in playing the center position in the NHL. Bedard has been a strong NHL center as a rookie but due to his frame, there’s a question on if he’s going to get beaten in the faceoff circle like Jack Hughes has.

The difference between Connor Bedard and Connor McDavid? McDavid’s freak athleticism in his skating and size.  (Perry Nelson / USA Today)3. Auston Matthews — 2016, Average Rank: 2.67

Matthews didn’t get a vote lower than No. 3, reflecting how dominant he was in his draft season between his play in Europe and at the international level. His men’s Worlds Championship performance is one of the best ever by a first-year draft eligible. Throughout his amateur career, he displayed incredible goal-scoring ability and elite skill.

4. Jack Hughes — 2019, Average Rank: 4.83

The votes started to get more spread out around this slot. Hughes ended up at No. 4, and most of the voters had him at that position, but he got votes as low as No. 7. There were minor concerns at the time about Hughes’ size and how his game would translate but he was an outstanding prospect who led a record-setting U.S. NTDP team due to his elite skating and skill.

5. Macklin Celebrini — 2024, Average Rank: 5.17

The focus of this year’s article is Celebrini, who slots in right in the middle of this group, which reflects that the industry views him as an average first-overall pick. He got two votes at No. 4, but also had a vote as low as No. 7.

The believers in Celebrini view him as a potential star No. 1 center in the NHL who can deliver excellent two-way value. “He’s not Sidney Crosby at the same age, but he’s a lot closer to Crosby than he is to (Nico) Hischier,” said one scout.

One executive who ranked him a bit lower worries a bit about his upside. “I think he has more skill and offense than Matty Beniers does, but I view him as that type of player. I think he’s going to score, he’ll have 60, 70, 75 point seasons in the NHL, but I don’t think he’s going to be an elite offensive producer.”

That he slots in behind Hughes is interesting, as Celebrini has been a dominant junior and college player, whereas Hughes wasn’t a full-time college player in his draft season.

6. Rasmus Dahlin — 2018, Average Rank: 6

Similar to Bedard versus Matthews for the second-best center, the voters were nearly split between Dahlin and Power for the best defense prospect of the last decade. Four voters preferred Dahlin, two preferred Power, and they were always one or two spots apart in each voter’s overall list. Dahlin’s draft season was excellent. He made SHL opponents at times look silly with his skill and was the best defenseman at his world juniors.

7. Owen Power — 2021, Average Rank: 6.67

While Dahlin was the flashy, highlight-reel type of defenseman in his draft season, Power was the opposite. He was not the sexiest No. 1 pick, but he looked like a potential No. 1 defenseman as a huge yet mobile defenseman with legit skill, puck-moving ability and steady all-around play.

8. Nico Hischier — 2017, Average Rank: 7.92

There was a break for the panel from the two defensemen to the next group of players. Hischier got one seventh place vote but otherwise ranged from Nos. 8-9 on every ballot. Hischier was a highly productive player in his draft season who had a great world juniors, although his U18 World Championship wasn’t as good. He was considered a very skilled and intelligent all-around player but he wasn’t considered a potential elite offensive player.

Lafrenière was probably the most divisive player in this group. While he’s become a good NHL player, he hasn’t become the top-tier scoring winger you would hope with a No. 1 overall pick. Most of the panelists had him at 9 or 10. They cited his so-so skating and position as reasons he wasn’t a strong No. 1 overall at the time. Some may recall he was a very hyped prospect though and there were some evaluators who saw star potential. That’s why one scout put him at No. 6 on his ballot ahead of Dahlin and Power, reflecting that he thought he had elite skill and would become an impact wing even if he hasn’t yet.

10. Juraj Slafkovsky — 2022, Average Rank: 9.67

Slafkovsky was a divisive first-overall pick at the time, in part because the 2022 draft lacked a clear No. 1 prospect. Even the scouts who had Slafkovsky as their No. 1 prospect in the class say he would not get them overly excited with that pick. Slafkovsky has been very good in the second half of this NHL season, looking like a big, quick winger with excellent puck play who could become a true top-line wing for a while.

(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic. Photos of Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini and Auston Matthews: Kevin Sousa, David Berding, Ethan Miller / Getty Images)