September brings the start of fantasy hockey season. We have already covered a few Penguins, including Sidney Crosby and others, and this article looks at Evgeni Malkin and his point projection for the 2025-26 season. The longtime Pittsburgh Penguins star has battled durability concerns throughout his career. However, when he is healthy continues to produce at a strong clip when in the lineup. As the Penguins enter 2025-26, Malkin remains central to the team’s offence, especially on the power play. However, his age raises natural questions about sustainability.

Age Curve and Team Context

At 39 years old, Malkin is firmly in the twilight of his career. This season may be his last in the league, but that is still unknown. As such, production typically tapes off heavily by this point. Our model accounts for this with a 0.87 age modifier, representing a 13% dip compared to peak scoring. Although harsh, this factors in expected regression as very few forwards can maintain prime-output levels this late into their careers. On key exception to this rule, might just be Crosby in fact.

The Penguins environment provides both help and hinderance. The organization has slipped at even strength scoring, scoring just 2.95 goals-per-game in 2024-25. This is a shade under the league average of 3.01. Crucially, the team’s 25.8% power play was one of the NHL’s better units, ensuring high-end opportunities for players getting ice-time on the man advantage. Because this model weighs team factors at 70% even strength and 30% power play, the result is a Team Index of 1.04. This is a small yet important lift that helps offset some of Malkin’s age decline.

Games Played

Availability has long been a significant variable in Malkin’s fantasy value. When Malkin is on, he’s one of the best in the world. In contrast, he’s dealt with many different injuries throughout his career. To balance his individual history with league-wide norms, the model uses a three-year weighted average for games played, then weights that figure along with a baseline of 69 GP. This baseline represents the mean for skaters that appeared in at least 41 games last season.

2024–25: 68 GP
2023–24: 82 GP
2022–23: 82 GP

Weighted together, Malkin’s result comes out to 75 GP. Factoring in baseline regression, his projection lands at 73 GP. This reflects a realistic middle ground. While Malkin has generally been unlikely to play all 82 games throughout his career, this figure represents his increased durability in the 2022-23, and 2023-24 seasons.

Points-Per-Game (PPG)

The next step in determining Evgeni Malkin’s projected points is to evaluate his scoring rate. His last three seasons provide the foundation we’ll build off of for our estimation.

2024–25: 68 GP
2023–24: 82 GP
2022–23: 82 GP

We decided to weight the most recent season at 50%, two years back at 30%, and three years back at 20%, Malkin’s baseline comes out to 0.82 PPG. After applying the 0.87 age modifier and 1.04 Team Index, his adjusted projection rate settles at 0.74 PPG heading into the 2025-26 season.

Evgeni Malkin’s Point Projection

Combining all factors such as age decline, Pittsburgh’s team environment, Malkin’s expected games played and adjusted scoring rate, the model projects 54 points in 73 games for Evgeni Malkin this season.

This figure reflects the reality of a player that no longer drives play at even strength, but remains lethal with the man advantage. Malkin’s projection isn’t as eye-popping as his peak years, but does still offer value in fantasy drafts. A 50–55-point floor with power play exposure makes him a serviceable middle-round pick, with upside if the Penguins offence clicks well under new head coach Dan Muse. For a player approaching 40, that’s still impressive longevity. In what may be Evgeni Malkin’s final year in the NHL, tracking his point production is certainly an interesting storyline to follow.

Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire – Imagn Images