The weeks before training camp are the best time to be a hockey fan (except if your team won the Stanley Cup). Anticipation is building, and everyone has hope that this is their team’s year. As Andy Dufresne from Shawshank Redemption said, “hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.” Unfortunately for Pittsburgh Penguins fans, there is not much hope that they will win the Stanley Cup this year. However, not all is bad in the Steel City, and the Penguins can drastically alter the franchise’s trajectory if they get off to a good start this season, but not for the reason you may expect.
It is no secret, the Penguins are entering a rebuild, and expectations are low for their fans. Many people and I would argue that this is long overdue. The front office tried too hard to keep a non-existent window open, and it cost the franchise. Now, usually in a rebuild, there is a lot of losing, and that will come for the Penguins, but they should try to get off to a quick start and stay in the playoff hunt by the time Christmas rolls around.
Related: Realistic Expectations for the Penguin 2025-26 Season/
The inspiration for my argument comes from Matt Murley, who appears on the popular podcast Spittin’ Chiclets, when asked about the tank for Gavin McKenna. I think the Penguins should aim for a similar start this season and try and be competitive until Christmas before turning their attention towards the 2026 NHL Draft.
Why Christmas?
There is a new tweak in the upcoming CBA that is being implemented for this upcoming season regarding double retention on contracts. In previous seasons, if you wanted to only pay 25% of a player’s salary, you could bring in another team to absorb the salary since teams could only retain 50%. This has led to some wild deadline deals, but it is going away this season. It was announced that a player must be on a roster for 75 days before they could be traded and salary retained. It was recently announced that the trade deadline for this upcoming season will be March 6. Dec. 21 falls 75 days before the deadline, and I think this means teams may trade for a player way before the deadline.
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)
For the Penguins, they have two players in Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell who should generate significant trade interest this season. If the Penguins get off to a hot start, I see a world where Rakell or Rust gets moved before Dec. 21 and the Penguins retain slightly on salary. It also gives a team more time to properly evaluate the newly acquired player before potentially trading them again at the deadline, much like what the Carolina Hurricanes did with Mikko Rantanen.
If the Penguins Are Rebuilding, Why Should They Be Competitive Early?
Good question, and this involves using a term: grand strategy. I am a military historian, so this is something I am familiar with, and I think it relates perfectly to my argument. Grand strategy is defined by John Lewis Gaddis as the means someone employs to achieve large ends. In grand strategy, you can also make moves that appear contradictory but all work towards accomplishing a larger goal. For example, the grand strategy of an NHL franchise is the Stanley Cup, but sometimes that involves becoming worse to eventually get better. For the Penguins, they need to be bad this season and hopefully get McKenna. If you are Kyle Dubas, you do not want to trade a player like Rakell or Rust because you have to; you want to trade them when their value is high to maximize return.
Schedule Outlook
The Penguins play 36 games before my self-imposed Dec. 21 deadline, and half of those are against playoff teams from the previous season. However, they also play the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks twice, two teams that will probably be towards the bottom of the standings. They also have their annual California road trip early this season. Is having the California swing early in the year beneficial? Honestly, everyone will have an opinion, either in the affirmative or negative, but it offers a real opportunity for the Penguins to start on a good foot. They also play the New York Islanders, Buffalo Sabres, and Seattle Kraken, all three of whom are likely to miss the playoffs.
