In a couple of weeks, our season preview series kicks off, where we’ve got you covered with each team’s projected point total, their chances of winning the Stanley Cup and everything in between. 

Some folks (the degenerates) can’t wait that long, which is why we’re here today to deliver this season’s best bets. Historically, they’ve done pretty well (see 2023, 2022), though last year (2024) was extremely hit or miss. Let’s hope this season goes a lot better.

Ahead of this season, I’ve made some changes to the underlying simulation model, adding the ability for a team’s strength to dynamically change during the season based on how the projected season goes. That means that if a team goes on a winning streak to start the season within a simulation, their future rating increases proportionally to those theoretical wins. That’s created probability ranges that are much more in line with the market — and fewer edges as a result. The previous edges I had at the extremes for playoff odds have been ironed out (i.e., I was wrong to believe the chances for the best and worst teams were as high or low as I previously had them).

While we won’t be unveiling each team’s specific projections and probabilities yet, I will be discussing which teams make a good bet based on their current lines and the model’s output. And since futures bets mean tying up your money all season, it’s important to only use a fraction of your bankroll here. I’ve included my own prices to help dictate how large each edge is.

As usual, the best bets are separated into two sections: point totals and playoffs and then futures (division, conference, Cup props). 

Here’s what we’re rolling with this season.

Point Totals and PlayoffsBuffalo Sabres
OVER 82.5 Points
YES Playoffs (+300)

There’s no team I like more in this market than Buffalo. While I completely understand the capitulation around the Sabres going into the year, there’s no way I can even get close to these numbers. After 15 years of stink, it may be hard to see, but I think the Sabres will be closer to the playoff race than the bottom five. I have them around 90 points, which puts their odds of hitting the over at 75 percent. It also makes that +300 to make the playoffs extremely juicy. Buffalo isn’t likely to be the Atlantic’s sixth-best team, but I have them closer to 45 percent.

There are two things that the Sabres have going for them this season compared to last year: youth and improved depth. There should be a fair bit of internal improvement forecasted, given how many players are in their prime or entering it, with Zach Benson being especially intriguing going into the year. On the depth front, the loss of JJ Peterka hurts, but his role can be filled internally via growth and is made up for by the holes that Josh Doan and especially Michael Kesselring fill.

On the latter front, it feels like the Sabres’ defensive unit — led by a top-five guy in Rasmus Dahlin — is severely underrated. Ideally, Owen Power takes a big step to become a no-doubt No. 2, but beyond him, Kesselring is a huge improvement over what the team was getting out of Connor Clifton and Jacob Bryson. Combine that with an offense that’s first in goals-per-60 at five-on-five over the last three years, and the Sabres could be legit. If they ever figure out how to turn all of that into a decent power play, look out.

Just when everyone has given up on Buffalo, it feels like the team has what it takes to really surprise this year. It’s the classic post-hype breakthrough.

Nashville Predators
UNDER 86.5 Points
NO Playoffs (-250)

While I think it’s more than fair to expect a bounce-back, I’m not seeing it to this level with a poorly-fitting roster with a lot of age concerns. Juuse Saros playing up to his usual level could be enough to get to 86.5 points on his own, but that’s not exactly a safe bet. The team’s depth at forward and defense behind him looks awful. With most of the team’s key stakeholders being 30 or older, I don’t expect the Predators to be nearly this competitive unless Saros plays at a Vezina level.

Nashville has the complete opposite vibe to Buffalo and probably lands closer to 80 points, with a 72 percent chance of hitting the under. As for the playoffs, I’m closer to -446, so there’s betting value at -250.

Florida Panthers

It’s easy to love the Panthers after back-to-back Stanley Cups, especially after the team was shockingly able to keep almost the entire championship roster intact. But 106.5 points is probably pushing it. Under Paul Maurice, this is not a regular-season team with the Panthers earning 98, 110 and 92 points the last three seasons — a 100-point average.

There are a few other reasons for skepticism. The big one is Matthew Tkachuk’s injury. Without him for potentially 30 to 40 games, it’s a bit tougher to see the Panthers play up to that level to start the season. They’ll likely be playing catch-up in January. I’m not big on soon-to-be 37-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky either, not in the regular season anyway. And Brad Marchand’s impact on the third line at his age could be overstated. Add a noticeable downgrade from Nate Schmidt to Jeff Petry, and I’m closer to the low 100s with a 69 percent chance of hitting the under.

I’m not betting against the Panthers come playoff time, but the regular season is a different ballgame for them. It’s hard to see a Tkachuk-less Panthers team consistently play at the gear necessary to reach 106.5. For the extremely brave, there is an edge betting on them at +600 to miss the playoffs (I have +345), but I won’t personally recommend it. The precedent is there (remember the 2014-15 Kings?) for disappointment from a championship-caliber possession team that has played a lot of hockey over the last three years. But this Panthers team feels like they have too many dawgs to ever let that happen.

Los Angeles Kings
UNDER 98.5 Points
NO Playoffs (+250)

Honestly, mark this one as a loss right now. It feels like every year I call for the Kings under and they do their usual: amaze in the regular season and disappoint in the playoffs. If you can find the market for “Kings don’t advance past the first round,” that might be a more fruitful venture.

This year, things might actually be different for the Kings, though. Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty are another year older, and the team has made some drastic changes to the defense that I don’t exactly agree with. It’s possible Los Angeles’ system inflates the value of Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin, but I’m still skeptical they can make up for the losses of Vladislav Gavrikov and Jordan Spence. I have them closer to 94 points with a 65 percent chance of hitting the under.

The real juicy opportunity might be the “no playoffs” angle. While I believe the Kings are likely to make the playoffs (around 65 percent), the middle of the West looks too competitive to feel they’re as safe as the market currently has them. There are five teams fighting for three spots, and while the Kings are the safest of the bunch, they’re arguably closer to the bunch than they are to the top five.

Tampa Bay Lightning

I think some folks are sleeping on the team that finished second in goal differential and bringing everyone back for another crack at it. The first-round loss to the Panthers wasn’t pretty, but this is still an elite team.

Age is a huge factor for Tampa Bay’s top end, and that puts some risk on this bet, but I feel like the Lightning are one of the few teams that I’d expect to clear 105 points. Their chances of hitting the over are 61 percent. No team can touch their high-end talent. A full season with Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand is also an underrated plus here.

Vancouver Canucks

Here, I’m mostly betting on the Pacific division being soft. Edmonton and Vegas are virtual locks, but after that, it’s basically just the Kings standing in Vancouver’s way. That gives me a small edge where I have the Canucks closer to -120 than +120. 

Ottawa Senators

Same idea as the Canucks play, but in the opposite direction. The Atlantic Division will likely have the fiercest playoff competition this year, making it more difficult to make the playoffs. I’m not sure there’s enough separating the Senators from the Canadiens and Sabres to price them at -180/+150 — I’m closer to 55 percent. The Senators should make the playoffs, but they’re not exactly on solid ground.

FuturesEdmonton Oilers
Division (+170)
Presidents’ Trophy (+800)

As usual, I have a bet on the Oilers to win the division. The regular season ones haven’t panned out as they just love to finish second or third in the Pacific, but maybe their luck turns this year. Last season, the Oilers were second in the league in all situations xG at 54.7 percent, but 11th in actual goals. A market correction could see Edmonton finally win the division (I have +104) and compete for the Presidents’ Trophy (I have +523). Spoiler alert, in both regards, I have the Oilers as the league’s top team.

It remains to be seen whether a team that has an eagle-eyed focus on winning a Stanley Cup after back-to-back losses will care enough during the regular season to get there. But I like the rookies to make a splash, and a full season of Jake Walman gives the Oilers an unrivalled blue line league-wide. 

Tampa Bay Lightning
Division (+275)
Presidents’ Trophy (+1200)
Win East (+600)
Win Stanley Cup (+1400)

My model loves the Lightning a whole lot more than the market does, and that means edges across the board. This is an elite team that’s currently being priced outside the league’s top five. They might be the most talented team in the East.

The ideal season is Tampa Bay sweeping the board with pure dominance. I’ve got the Lightning’s fair price at +170 for the division, +657 for the Presidents’ Trophy, +498 to win the East and +1073 to win the Stanley Cup.

Buffalo Sabres
Division (+4500)
Win East (+5000)
Win Stanley Cup (+10000)

Look, it’s extremely likely none of these bets win (and if you really do want to risk money on a near-guaranteed loser, remember to bet accordingly). But there is value here, so if you want a real long shot, the hope of 15 years of bad luck distilling into one year of good luck might be appealing. A young team taking a massive leap all at the same time isn’t exactly unprecedented, and the Sabres have several real breakout candidates.

Given the youth angle, the playoff bets here might not be appetizing due to a lack of experience. They’re the longest odds for a reason, and I probably won’t be touching them. Still, I have Buffalo at +2264 to win the East and +4569 to win the Stanley Cup, which is far from likely, but better than its current price.

The division win might be the most intriguing. We see surprise winners all the time in that regard from this range, including Washington last year and Vancouver the year before that. The Canucks comparison is an interesting one considering Buffalo’s current makeup. I have Buffalo at +1841 compared to the +4500 shown. A two-time Stanley Cup hangover in Florida, an age-related decline in Tampa Bay and a weaker Leafs team affected by Mitch Marner aren’t out of the question. Similarly, a step back from Ottawa and Montreal is also possible, following the surprise of those two last year. Extremely unlikely? Of course — that’s why their odds are so low. But it’s in the realm of possibility.

This is a losing bet 19 times out of 20 and isn’t recommended for the majority of people. But for the ones who understand pricing and value — and aren’t squeamish about the Sabres — all you need is one for a helluva story. 

(Photo of Rasmus Dahlin: Rebecca Villagracia / Getty Images)