Florida eventually will run out of gas, when that will be remains to be seen. They showed no signs of slowing last season when they made their third straight Cup Final appearances, defeating Edmonton for the second straight season. The Panthers have played 314 total contests the last three seasons, and sooner or later, the wear-and-tear will catch up to them. They looked fresh at the end of the run last season.
The Panthers did take their foot off the gas a little bit last year, finishing third in the division. Starting on the road and having a slightly harder path to the championship did not appear to cause them much stress. Like many teams who win consistently, front office changes result, and the Panthers were no different this offseason. The team parted ways with Chief Operating Officer Bryce Hollweg, President & CEO Matt Caldwell, and Chief Revenue Officer Shawn Thornton, impact of which remains to be determined.
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This is a situation where the sum of the overall parts is greater than the Individual wholes. Florida’s offensive and defensive totals both declined from 2023-24, but as noted above, the team knows that making the playoffs is all that matters. The net variances were not that dramatic, a decline in 19 goals for and rise in 25 goals against, but a negative 44 goal swing is not something that should be completely discounted. Even without Matthew Tkachuk the first 2-3 months of the season following adductor repair surgery, full seasons from both Brad Marchand and Seth Jones could aid the team on both sides of the ice.
Continuity is a big part of the team’s success. Management has continually shown a willingness to put their money where their mouths are, re-signing key personnel. The rise in the cap the last few years, along with the expected continual increase moving forward, has made it easier to retain that personnel.
In order, Sam Bennett signed an eight-year, $64 million contract on June 27 followed by Aaron Ekblad’s eight-year, $48.8 million contract on June 30 and Marchand’s six-year, $31.5 million contract on July 1. The first two didn’t even make it to the open market while Marchand, who settled in nicely to Southern Florida after coming over from Boston at the trade deadline. was a strong possibility to remain. That continuity has allowed GM Bill Zito and coach Paul Maurice to maintain a level of success with players who have shown a willingness and desire to remain.
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Fantasy options exist, though may not fully abound. As said, the sum is greater than the parts, but that doesn’t mean bargains might not exist. Aleksander Barkov is a Selke Trophy candidate and future Hall of Famer, though his production does not warrant a first-round pick. Sam Reinhart should net 35-40 goals again, making up for the initial absence of Tkachuk, who will slide in drafts due to a projected Jan.-Feb. start date after surgery.
Marchand lengthens the lineup but his decline in production in Boston last season was a smidge concerning. As such, be careful not to overrate. Similar for Carter Verhaeghe, who dropped from 72 to 53 points, though I do think a rebound is more probable with him. Bennett received the long-term deal due to his playoff – and not regular – season performance, so keep that in mind in your drafts.
Anton Lundell is one who should be targeted, especially if Maurice rides him early due to his younger legs with Tkachuk out. Similar for Mackie Samoskevich, who is playing for a long-term deal, as he is on a one-year, $775K deal. Eetu Luostarinen provides the physical presence on that line with that trio playing a key role in the team’s Cup win.
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On the blue line, Ekblad seems to get hurt annually, but he has been a key in the playoffs. Gustav Forsling provides a little offense, all of which comes at even-strength. Seth Jones, struggling in Chicago, was a major breath of fresh air, revitalizing his career with the Cats. He is the blueliner to target.
Florida seems to revitalize players annually. Jeff Petry could be this year’s candidate. He signed a one-year, $775,000 contract this offseason and should slot on the third pairing. Petry could move up if needed and run the second unit PP if either Jones or Ekblad is out.
Sergei Bobrovsky’s playoff performance allowed management to trade Spencer Knight to Chicago for Jones. Who the future goalie in Florida remains to be seen, but the Bob will be re-signed after his eight-year contract ends after this season. Bobrovsky hasn’t topped the 60-game mark in a season since joining the Panthers in 2019 and the pressure will be on Daniil Tarasov to provide solid play when between the pipes. The two-time Vezina winner is now a two-time Stanley Cup winner and should be a lock for the Hall of Fame.
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Prediction:
Zito will be aggressive if needed to give Florida a chance for the first three-peat since the Islanders. Tkachuk should be well-rested for the playoff run, with the Olympics potentially his first game action, though he could return in January.
The big names will once again lead the offense, though Lundell and Samoskevich will be keys to start the season. Marchand has a mild resurgence while Bennett is overrated in leagues due to his playoff performance.
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Florida advances to the Eastern Conference Finals but falls to the Hurricanes.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.