Whether or not Kirill Kaprizov actually did turn down a reported $128-million mega-extension with the Minnesota Wild seems moot at this point in September.

What does matter is that one of the league’s deadliest forwards has a contract expiring at the end of this season, and that decision time is coming sooner than later for the Minnesota Wild.

I’m certain the Wild’s front office understands the significant dynamics at play here. On one hand you have a 28-year-old former fifth-round pick who has turned into both a hometown hero and lethal first-line winger who dominates the opposition in every situation — the type of player you typically back up the metaphorical Brink’s truck for.

On the other hand, there are some fast-approaching mile markers, hallmarked by the March 7 trade deadline. If Minnesota and Kaprizov haven’t worked something out in the next couple of months, a move at the trade deadline to return significant assets for Bill Guerin seems inevitable. The risk of losing a player this valuable, perhaps $16-million a year valuable, for nothing would be a grave offence from the front office.

Unquestionably last week’s report of a declined extension raised eyebrows around the league. Every NHL team would be materially better with Kaprizov in their top six, and a player this calibre rarely shakes loose on the trade market. It’s precisely the opportunity teams preserving cap space or building a war chest of talented prospects look for when making a big splash. And Kaprizov would be more of a cannonball.

Whether it’s by counting statistics or advanced metrics, Kaprizov routinely stands out as a world-class player. Do you like points? Kaprizov has averaged 108 points per 82 games the past two seasons, top-tier production at the position and doing it while maintaining defensive integrity.

Want to go deeper? Compare his last two seasons (note: Kaprizov’s 2024-25 campaign was just 41 games, owing to injury) by way of Goals Above Replacement, which seeks to measure a player’s individual contributions across all game states.

It won’t surprise you that Edmonton’s Connor McDavid is the most dominant player in the league, but look at the chasing Kaprizov, sandwiched between mega forces in Boston’s David Pastrnak and Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov:

Yost1

Unquestionably, Kaprizov’s production has been elite. And you see the sort of tailwind he provides for Minnesota when he’s on the ice. In fact, the results with Kaprizov on versus off for the Wild over the years is as staggering a gap as you will find — an effective Stanley Cup-calibre team with him (he’s typically deployed with Mats Zuccarello and Marco Rossi), and outside the playoffs without him:

Yost2

Couple this with his age and uniquely low games played number (he’s at just 344 NHL games, including playoffs, which is just a tick over four full seasons of mileage), and you see why he can ask for the moon come contract talks.

From a negotiation standpoint, we don’t know Kaprizov’s desire to stay in Minnesota versus test the market, and with strong indications of meaningful cap growth in the years ahead, perhaps Kaprizov is looking for a deal short on term.

There’s risk in that strategy, especially for a player whose one ding might be his durability to date, but the reward is perhaps cashing in via free agency again by the time he’s 32 or 33, when the cap ceiling could be $20-million or more to the upside of where it is today.

It may take some time for this entire ordeal to shake out, but in the chance Kaprizov does become available via trade, prepare for one of the most competitive bidding wars in some time.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey

Related Stories