Suddenly everyone is optimistic about Stuart Skinner in Edmonton, including Skinner himself.
Last week, Skinner told the media,: “My goals this year, I’ve set the bar high. I want to represent Canada at the Olympics. I want to get back to the Stanley Cup and finish the job. I just look to keep learning. Last year was another 82 games and four rounds, but we just want to finish the job.”
At Sportsnet, top Edmonton columnist Mark Spector noted that the Oilers have a new goalie coach in Peter Aubry. Spector also noted is a crucial year for Skinner and the Oilers, with Skinner’s deal up at end of the season: “Either he establishes himself as a top-10 goalie — one that the Oilers can win Cups with — or he’s not, and he becomes part of a trade.”
Then Spector made a, “BOLD PREDICTION. Skinner has the best season of his NHL career. With two Stanley Cup trips under his belt and 26 playoff victories over the past three springs, it’s time for Skinner to prove his many detractors wrong. I believe he will this season, which could be an expensive exercise for the Oilers come contract time.”
At the Hockey Writers, commentator Jackson Scherger predicted a Skinner bounce back season: “Edmonton certainly isn’t the easiest market to play in, especially for a goalie, but Stuart Skinner has done just fine in his tenure so far as a member of the Oilers. He has been the main starter for three seasons and has been in net for back-to-back runs to the Stanley Cup Final. Despite any criticism he faces and how many doubters he has, there is plenty of reason to believe the 2025-26 season will be his best one yet.”
On Oilers Now host Bob Stauffer has mentioned several times how Skinner looks trimmer this fall, the player having dropped some weight: “Stuart Skinner looks completely different. He looks quicker, he looks more agile, and frankly, physically, when you see him up close, it’s obvious he’s dropped some weight.”
Oilers GM Stan Bowman told Stauffer he saw the same: “I actually saw Stu earlier this week in the kitchen before going on the ice. The first thing I noticed was he looked thin. And I said, ‘Yow, you look different.’ And he said, ‘Yeah, I wanted to try something different, be a little bit lighter this year, and I feel great.’ And he does. He looks good. He looks quick on the ice.”
Skinner and Aubry have formed a quick connection, Bowman said. “They’ve spent a lot of time with each other talking about the game and talking about his game. And really, it’s like a fresh approach to the season. So I think when you add it all up, there’s a lot of reason for excitement coming into the season to see Stu.”
Former Oilers player, coach and GM Craig MacTavish was also positive about Skinner’s new form, telling Stauffer: “I have so much respect for Stu Skinner with what he’s endured at times in this marketplace with the heat that he’s got so much mental toughness. And I mean, I’m a fan, and certainly cheering for him, and wishing a local kid all the best.
“There aren’t too many goalies have taken teams to Stanley Cup Finals over the last couple of years, and still receive some of the criticism. But I mean, some of it’s on him. He’s got to step up and grow. And the first part of development and getting better is recognizing that there’s a need there.”
Skinner
My take
1. The hard facts about Stu Skinner are a mixed bag. On the one hand his save percentage has crashed over the years, from 0.914 in 2022-234 to 0.905 in 2023-24 to 0.896 last season. That’s a bad sign.
At the same time, Skinner has had a number of excellent streaks of hot goaltending, including in the playoffs, where he’s out-played Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger two years running and out-played Vegas goalie Adin Hill this year. But in the biggest games of the Stanley Cup Final two years running Skinner has been out-played by Sergei Bobrovsky, and Skinner’s game has been so weak in several series that he’s been pulled, with back-up Calvin Pickard going in.
2. The other major consideration is that Skinner has been a bargain for the Oilers at $2.6 million per year. Do we really expected him to out-play higher paid goalies every single NHL playoff series? Is that reasonable expectation?
3. There was particular consternation over Skinner’s play this past year because often when he attempted to spring side-to-side in net to make a save he ended up falling on his face. It was a bad look, possibly related to a comparative lack of strength and flexibility. It’s evident he’s dropped weight. Maybe that will help him address this issue.
4. Another cause for optimism in the “If it’s broke, why not try to fix it?” category, is that Skinner is now working with a new goalie coach. I have no idea if Dustin Schwartz did a good, bad or indifferent job, but I do note Skinner’s hot and cold performances and his dropping save percentages over three seasons. Hockey is a fiercely results driven business, so a change was in order.
Hot
5. If Skinner can get hot in the playoffs at the right time, Edmonton will win the Stanley Cup. In both of the past two regular seasons he’s had major hot streaks, one lasting 22 games with a .934 save percentage, the other lasting 20 games with a 0.921 save percentage. He’s clearly capable of getting the job done. I’m glad the Oilers have not given up on him. He may well find the consistency he needs to become an elite Team Canada-quality goalie.
As for the optimism, bring it on, so long as its coupled with diligent effort and sound process.
If you’re not hopin’, you’re not tryin’.