30-44-8, 68 points (7th Central, 30th overall)
2.59 GF/GP, 31st; 3.34 GA/GP, 27th
21.9 PP%, 18th; 81.5 PK%, 7th

Key losses: C/LW Colton Sissons, D Jeremy Lauzon

Key additions: C/LW Erik Haula, D Nic Hague, D Nick Perbix

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Expected lineup:

Filip Forsberg – Ryan O’Reilly – Luke Evangelista
Steven Stamkos – Fedor Svechkov – Jonathan Marchessault
Michael Bunting – Erik Haula – Joakim Kemell
Cole Smith – Mike McCarron – Zach L’Heureux

Roman Josi – Justin Barron
Brady Skjei – Nick Blankenburg
Nic Hague – Nick Perbix

Juuse Saros – Justus Annunen

PP1: Forsberg – O’Reilly – Marchessault – Stamkos – Josi
PP2: Bunting – Haula – Evangelista – Kemell – Skjei

5-on-5:

Where do we begin?

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I think it’s worth noting that on the heels of a surprisingly successful 2023-24 season in Andrew Brunette’s, there were some clues that the Predators really weren’t that good and destined to take a step back. To wit, note the following in the 2023-24 season:

– The Preds needed an 18-game points streak (16-0-2) just to make the playoffs. They were 31-30-3 otherwise.
– Gustav Nyquist scored a career-high 75 points in his age-34 season.

– Juuse Saros started at least 60 games for the third consecutive season, and only one other goalie (Connor Hellebuyck) has done so.

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– Jonathan Marchessault scored a career-high 42 goals for the Golden Knights even though he had never scored more than 30 in any other season.

– Steven Stamkos scored 40 goals for the second time in three seasons for the Lightning but saw his 5-on-5 possession metrics dip for the third straight season.

– Brady Skjei’s possession numbers, both individually and playing with Brett Pesce, were very good, but the Hurricanes’ possession numbers were actually better when they weren’t on the ice.

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Not only did the Preds overachieve, require a well-timed hot streak just to make the playoffs and potentially overwork their goalie, they chose to commit big dollars in free agency – $108.5 million – to players whose previous teams deemed they weren’t nearly worth that much.

They regressed in nearly every key metric: 5v5 CF%, expected goals for, high-danger shot attempts, and on and on. They went from being really good at getting shots from the middle of the ice, especially in the slot, to one that became below-average in nearly all areas. Per NHL EDGE, the Preds ranked below the 50th percentile in high-danger shots and goals after ranking in the 87th and 74th percentiles in the previous season.

In retrospect, it just doesn’t seem like a thought-out roster. There are too many right-hand shots to feed who play similar styles, and all six of their top scorers are in their 30’s. I’m not sure what exactly convinced GM Barry Trotz this team was closer to championship material than lottery material, but it seems like the usually conservative Preds went all-in at the worst possible moment and the rest of the league called their bluff.

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They finished second-last in goals for per game and their .415 P% was the worst mark in franchise history in the cap era. They simply couldn’t generate anything and, even if they did, they were really bad at converting chances, shooting a league-low 8.8 percent. Really poor starts did not help; the Preds were 28th in number of games in which they scored first and 25th in total goals scored in the first period. In a season where comebacks were common, the Preds had just seven wins win trailing after the first or after the second period.

Without any major adjustments, either through roster moves or Andrew Brunette’s strategies, it’s difficult to see how the Preds can improve going into 2025-26.

Power Play:

The Preds was respectable but, again, poor roster construction, poor execution and missing Roman Josi for a huge chunk of the season were big reasons why it didn’t live up to expectations. When you have one of this generation’s best power play snipers in Stamkos, and a premier quarterback in Josi, you should have at least a top-10 power play.

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But there were simply too many mouths to feed and too many right-hand shots, and Andrew Brunette could never figure out anything that worked consistently. If Josi, who missed parts of last season due to a concussion and postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome – symptoms that include dizziness when going lying down and then standing up – is less than 100 percent this season, it’ll present another dilemma to their power play. The Preds did fine without Josi on the power play – 25.8 percent efficiency – but going to Brady Skjei or Nick Blankenburg is a big step down.

All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.