When Ilya Sorokin arrived in the NHL at the start of the 2020-21 season, he was immediately one of the best goalies in the league, and for his first three years, there was almost nobody better than him. He was the backbone of practically all of the Islanders’ success and was a constant game-changer.
Between 2020-21 and 2022-23 his .924 save percentage was the second-best in the NHL, and he was routinely stopping 30-35 shots per night behind an overrated defense that wasn’t as strong as we were led to believe. It was strong because the goalie never let anything get by him.
Over the past two years, however, his overall production has dropped off a little, and his .908 save percentage over that stretch puts him in the “slightly above average” category with the likes of Darcy Kuemper, Joseph Woll, Filip Gustavsson, Cam Talbot and Adin Hill. I’m not just pulling names out of a hat here; those are the goalies that have matched him in save percentage the past two seasons.
Don’t get me wrong: that’s not bad. You can win with that level of goaltending if the team around the goalie is good enough. But this team around Sorokin, at least in the short term, isn’t good enough.
Suppose he has a third consecutive year with a sub-. 910 save percentage. That is a potential red flag for the Islanders. The Islanders have a lot of money invested in him to be a game-changer. If they are going to contend again soon, it would be helpful if he returns to that level of play.