Since 2020, Calgary Flames fans have had the time to meet Connor Zary. In the past two years, he has become a key piece in this youth movement that the Flames want to push. A fantastic start to the 2023–24 season saw him called up to the Flames early on and never returning to the AHL.

Ever since, the 24-year-old Saskatoon product has become a great piece to the Flames lineup, being able to play almost anywhere. With his new three-year contract signed, the Flames are betting on some big growth throughout the deal. A breakout year for Zary seems like a matter of when and not if. So, what will it take for the 2025–26 season to be that year?

Staying healthy

Now, this isn’t completely in Zary’s control. Freak injuries happen, and we saw Zary suffer two this past season. He was injured in a disgusting knee-on-knee collision with Drew Helleson in a game against the Anaheim Ducks in early January. The collision led to a five-minute major and a game misconduct for Helleson. Unfortunately for Zary, his injured knee held him out for almost exactly a month, returning after the Four Nations break. Again, a month later, Zary was the victim of an ugly and awkward collision in which he reinjured his knee.

In total, Zary would miss 26 games due to injury in his sophomore season. A brutal blow for a young and developing player. Production-wise, Zary was pretty much matching the pace from his rookie year with 27 points in 54 games. His injuries from last season didn’t necessarily stop a breakout year from happening, but they certainly didn’t help the advancement of one.

As I said already, staying fully healthy isn’t really in Zary’s control. However, a year with limited missed time or no time missed at all could go a long way for Zary. No spurts where he has to refind comfort or confidence. More games to get hot and have some luck on his side. Time to mesh with a line and find a solidified spot in the lineup. All factors that would do wonders for Zary’s upcoming year.

Play Zary in a natural position

If you follow the Flames, it’s more than likely you have noticed that Zary plays a majority of his time on the wing. Across his top-three most common line combos this prior year, Zary was positioned at either the left or right wing. Now, there’s nothing wrong with having a player start out on the wing, but Zary hasn’t received a ton of run time at his natural centre position.

According to MoneyPuck.com‘s line combinations, Zary was placed at either wing position for about 420 of his minutes this year. Comparing that to his centre ice time, which is roughly 130 minutes. That’s almost a 300-minute difference! Now, to be fair, Zary’s face-off percentage wasn’t pretty at 37.3% Plus, the Flames’ top three centres feel locked in as Nazem Kadri, Mikael Backlund, and Morgan Frost. However, I do still feel the Flames can get more creative to give Zary some more time at centre.

Regardless of whether he finds success at centre or not, I think it’s worth giving Zary a longer shot at his natural position. Especially since the Flames aren’t the strongest at the position when it comes to their youth. With Zary, he either flourishes at centre and has a great year, or you confirm he’s better suited as a winger and probably picks up a few lessons.

More offensive opportunity

Compared to his rookie year, I feel as if Zary was pushed into a more defensive role this past season. Looking at Zary’s offensive zone starts, he sat at 57.81% this year, which was approximately a 14% drop from 2023–24. His most common linemates were Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. While Backlund and Coleman do pitch in some nice offence, they’re notoriously known for their two-way play and forechecking pressure. Their style does actually help out younger players quite a bit, but with a more offensive mind in Zary, you have to let him play on a better-suited line afterwards. I even think that the Flames have someone to replace Zary on that Backlund/Coleman line in Joel Farabee.

Zary played most of his time in his first season with Nazem Kadri and Martin Pospisil, logging 380 minutes together. This year, they only saw just under 100 minutes together. I understand that the team doesn’t look the same as Zary’s rookie year. There are new additions to the team, players had up or down years, etc. However, it should be in the Flames’ best interest to flesh out the team to their best ability. Don’t stick an offensive player on a defensive line because “there’s nowhere else to put them.” Developing a defensive game in a young player is a good idea, but based on the underlying numbers, Zary has already shown he can play a two-way style, and it’s time for him to unlock the offence.

I’d love to see Zary play centre with Matt Coronato, but even if they’re both on the wing, it would work. However, overall, just find Zary some more playing time in an offensive role. His rookie year shows that he thrives when given the opportunity to focus on the offensive side of the puck.

Everything has to click

This is sort of a no-brainer, but Zary needs luck to go his way. In general, that’s just how life goes, but comparing Zary’s two seasons, this past one saw way more misfortune. Looking at his PDO, it sat comfortably above the average threshold of 1.000 in 2023–24, but dropped below to 0.989 this past year. It is a stat that regards both on-ice save and shooting percentage. The save percentage stayed relatively the same. On the other hand, the on-ice shooting percentage dropped over 4% from 10.29 to 6.04.

The expected goals also get more bewildering. In 2023–24, the Flames scored roughly nine more goals above expected when Zary was on ice. This season? 12 LESS goals scored above expected. Only nine high-danger goals on-ice compared to 27 as a rookie, while generating generally the same amount of chances.

Honestly, in a way, it’s all a good sign. Zary had some pretty lucky numbers in 2023–24 and only slightly outproduced a season with some pretty unlucky numbers. Also, Zary’s individual and on-ice chance creation numbers improved from his rookie year.

I think this can also somewhat play into the more offensive linemates point. In a more defensive role, he generated relatively the same chances, but did not score nearly as many goals. It is all a strong indicator that if Zary can get some luck and finish this upcoming season, a big year may be on the horizon.

What is it going to take for a breakout?

There are plenty of factors that will go into Connor Zary having a big year for the Calgary Flames in 2025–26. Deploying Zary in a more offensive role would likely do wonders for his production and the possibility of tapping into his offensive potential. It also wouldn’t hurt to give him a more extended look at his natural centre position and truly find out where he should be played at the NHL level. Some of the factors may be a little out of his control, such as luck or injuries. But if it can go his way, it’ll be huge for the possibility of major steps.

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