Has the Stanley Cup window closed in Tampa? That’s the question on the mind of every Lightning fan and within the organization. The team has won just four playoff games the last three seasons while seeing their in-state rivals, the Panthers, go to three straight Cup Final, winning two.

On paper, the Lightning should have everything. Elite scoring, as they finished first in the league in goals. Solid defense, fourth in league in goals against and first in goal-differential. Proven playoff performers up-and-down the lineup, on offense, defense and in net. Yet, they only have four playoff wins the past three postseasons. This is a key season in the Sunshine State,

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Jake Guentzel, signed to a seven-year, $63 million contract by the Lightning in July 2024, scored a career-high 41 goals and reached the 80-point plateau for the second time in his nine-year NHL career. Brayden Point did see his production fall slightly for the second straight season yet did tally 42 markers and 40 helpers. The piece-de-resistance of that group, Nikita Kucherov, posted his third consecutive campaign of at least 110 points, tallying 37 goals and 84 assists. He sits just six points shy of 1,000 points in his career.

Second-line center, Anthony Cirelli, has developed into one of the better two-way pivotmen in the league. The 27-year-old notched a career-high 27 goals and 59 points while posting a plus-30 rating. His left wing, Brandon Hagel, increased his production for the fifth straight season, notching 35 tallies and 55 assists. The third member of that trio should be Oliver Bjorkstrand, who came over at the trade deadline. He has hit the 20-goal mark four straight seasons and six of the last seven.

When healthy, Nick Paul is a solid third line center. Out until November, Paul notched 22 goals and 41 points across 76 regular-season appearances last season. Replacing him will likely either be Yanni Gourde or Zemgus Girgensons, neither of whom is a material offensive threat, though Gourde has some upside. With Isaac Howard traded to Edmonton, Gage Goncalves and Conor Geekie could make up two-thirds of the third line. If that happens, look for a material uptick in scoring from both.

Jakob Pelletier has a shot to break camp with the team while Pontus Holmberg is a near lock for the fourth line due to his penalty kill prowess. Mitchell Chaffee, off 66 games played last season, has a good chance to break camp on the fourth line. If there is a concern up front, it’s the lack of size and physical presence.

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Victor Hedman, who will be in the first season of a four-year, $32 million contract extension in 2025-26, notched 66 points last season, 26 on the man-advantage. He pairs with J.J. Moser. Ryan McDonagh, who returned last season from Nashville, is in the final season of the seven-year, $47.25 million contract extension he signed with the Lightning in July 2018. He was a plus-43 last season and his pairing with Erik Cernak took the defensive pressure off the top unit.

Emil Lilleberg played in 76 games last season, scoring 19 points. His pair mate, Darren Raddysh, had a a career season last year, registering six goals, 31 assists and a plus-9 rating in 73 regular-season games. That duo should be the third pairing.

Andrei Vasilevskiy rebounded from a subpar 2023-24 campaign to be dominant again. He was 38-20-5 with six shutouts. a 2.18 goals-against average and .921 save percentage in his 63 outings. If there is a concern in net, it’s the backup, as neither Jonas Johansson nor Brandon Halverson provides a level of comfort, allowing the Lightning to reduce Vasilevskiy’s workload substantially.

Prediction:

The offense continues to percolate while the defense remains solid. Vasilevskiy has another stellar season and the Lightning finish top-three in the division.

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Tampa Bay, despite a so-so farm system, imports size at the deadline, both up front and on the blueline. In addition, a better backup goalie is brought on board.

The Lightning have one more run in them, giving them a strong chance to make the Eastern Conference Finals.

All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.