Mitch Marner #93 of the Vegas Golden Knights (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)
Life under the bright hockey lights in Toronto is no easy test for a player. Mitch Marner, who spent all nine of his NHL seasons with the Maple Leafs, probably knows this better than anyone. Now, with a fresh start in Vegas and at the peak of his career, the expectation is that a freer Marner could set new scoring highs. Or will he? RG tried to weigh the main factors that could shape his future production.
We dug into data from every summer move dating back to 2006, the first offseason after the salary cap was introduced. Since we’re looking at Marner’s potential scoring, we focused only on offensive players who had at least 30 points in the season before their move (20 in the shortened 2012–13 season). We factored in Toronto’s and Vegas’s styles of play from 2024–25, the quality of linemates, and historical precedents. Some findings were expected, others surprising – and together they shaped our forecast.
So, let’s dive in.
Factor No. 1: The Team Switch And Motivation After Signing a New Contract
There’s no doubt that a move is stressful for any player. Some adapt quickly, others struggle. We saw Mikko Rantanen’s production drop in Carolina, and even now it’s unclear which version Dallas has on their hands – the one who torched his old Colorado teammates in Round 1, or the one who scored under a point per game in the regular season and finished the playoffs with zero goals and three assists in seven games.
To be fair, Marner’s case is different. He chose his destination, had nearly three months to settle in, and used training camp to build chemistry with new teammates. That matters. On top of that, Marner has just signed the biggest deal of his life – and that’s where the “contract effect” comes in. The common belief is that once players lock up their payday, their motivation slips.
What do the numbers say? Since 2006, just under 300 players have signed new contracts while switching teams. That’s enough to test the theory. The results line up: median production dropped by 2.8%. If we cut out players younger than 27 – who often keep developing naturally – the decline gets steeper, to 5.2%.
For Marner, we narrowed the filter even more: free agents (or sign-and-trade players) between 27–30 years old, scoring 60+ points the season before their move, and signing deals worth at least 10% of the salary cap at the time. In other words, peak players clearly signed to play major roles. That gave us 13 names, including one defenseman (Brian Campbell, 2008).
PlayerAgePosYearTeam 1Team 2ContractP1P2P/GP1P/GP2
DeltaP/GP
Marc
Savard28C2006ATLBOS$5 mln97961,181,17-0,01Chris
Drury30C2007BUFNYR$7.05 mln69580,90,71-0,19Daniel
Brière29C2007BUFPHI$6.5 mln95721,170,91-0,26Scott
Gomez27C2007NJDNYR$7.36 mln60700,830,860,03Brian
Campbell29D2008BUF,SJSCHI$7.14 mln62520,750,63-0,12Marian
Hossa29R2008ATL,PITDET$7.45 mln66710,920,960,04Michael
Cammalleri27L2009CGYMTL$6 mln82501,010,77-0,24Zach
Parise27L2012NJDMIN$7.54 mln69380,840,79-0,05Paul
Stastny28C2014COLSTL$7 mln60460,850,62-0,23John
Tavares27C2018NYITOR$11 mln84881,021,070,05Artemi
Panarin27L2019CBJNYR$11.64 mln87951,11,380,28Johnny
Gaudreau28L2022CGYCBJ$9.75 mln115741,40,92-0,48Jake
Guentzel29C2024PIT,CARTBL$9 mln77801,151-0,15
Only four of those players improved their scoring after the move. Just one of them – Artemi Panarin in 2019 – did so in a meaningful way. The median change? A drop of 13%. If we isolate only assists – Marner’s bread and butter – the median decline is even harsher: 15.7%.
Yes, the “biggest contract of your life” really does have an effect.
Impact on production: negative.