Get your questions ready and join in at 1 p.m. Wednesday for our weekly Blues chat.

Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon. The Blues begin the regular season tomorrow. Let’s get to some questions.

DenMizzou: Hello, Mr. DeFranks. Thank you for the chat. I’m still trying to learn about hockey. I think the Blues are better than what a lot of “experts” say, but I’d feel a lot better about the team if Bolduc was a third-line wing rather than Joseph. I think the Blues are really going to miss Bolduc’s scoring.

Matthew DeFranks: You’re right that the Blues will miss Bolduc’s scoring ability on the third line, but I think that was baked into the decision that they needed a young right-handed defenseman for the future.

So they give from an area of strength given how many wingers they have, and they receive in an area of weakness with a young, right-handed defensemen whose true value will hopefully be found in the coming years, and not just this season.

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Tylerg: Matty D, wishing your family all the best and individually wishing you a successful upcoming NHL season as a journalist. Stenberg impressed me in preseason from what I saw (yes I know it’s just preseason). However, it sure feels like he’s closer than other STL forwards prospects. Would a Stenberg, Schenn, Neighbours line be something we could see after we inevitably cycle through Joseph and Texier unsuccessfully performing at 3rd line wing and Bjugstad permanently moving down to the 4th line? Also, what’s the deal with Torey Krug? When does he go LTIR and announce like Petro that he’s done for the entirety of the year so we can free up space and maybe simply trade for a middle six winger? Thanks for doing this all summer for us when not much was happening my guy; it meant a lot. Hopefully now we have more to ask you with the season starting. Cheers!

Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, I think Stenberg is the closest of the next round of prospects to joining the NHL roster. I think that’s for two reasons: one because he’s played well so that helps, but two, because he plays a more adaptable role. He’s able to play in the bottom six or the top six, either wing, provide a little bit of jam with some skill. He’s a more complementary player, whereas Dvorsky will be a play-driver and that may take a little bit longer.

Jim Montgomery and Doug Armstrong were both very effusive in their praise for Stenberg, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him up in the NHL once more injuries arise.

As far as Torey Krug, he’s done playing hockey and when the Blues do eventually put him on LTIR, they will be able to do so at his full cap hit of $6.5 million since he won’t play the regular season or the playoffs. If he was to play again this season, the Blues would only have $3.8 million to use in the interim before his return, but they are not in that situation.

So teams, for many reasons, will want to wait as long as they can to place a player on LTIR. They know they have the space to use, but will generally only use it if they have to. Last year, the Blues wouldn’t have used it so early if Brandon Saad wasn’t expecting a child at the start of the season.

This year, if the Blues want to sign Milan Lucic to a contract, they’ll have to put Krug on LTIR to create space. So the Blues know they have the space, but they won’t have to use it until the moment arises.

Sctdog: A few years back if asked what the Blues had to do to rebuild towards a cup contender numerous holes appeared to need addressing, talent in the forward corps, youth on D, depth. Army’s added talent in the forward corp w Holloway, Snug and Neighbors, and two young D in Broberg and Mailoux. What is the next step, a scoring 2C, more depth?

Matthew DeFranks: Ideally, the Blues have the future 2C in the system with Dalibor Dvorsky, and have current stopgaps there in Brayden Schenn and Pius Suter.

I still think a No. 1 defenseman is an area of need, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. I feel like Florida proved you can have a deep, versatile group of defensemen without having to need a Makar or Hedman.

Matt L: The season is upon us! Praise be!

Matthew DeFranks: Here we go!

Sctdog: Skinner played last year for Springfield and put up what appears to be a decent year, yet I don’t recall much of any discussion about him prior to the last two weeks of camp. Do the Blues offer a heads up on prospects or are they pretty much silent. Is he a real prospect in their eyes or just a guy w a good camp?

Matthew DeFranks: I think a lot of people, myself included, kind of dismissed Hunter Skinner since he was sort of a throw-in as part of the Tarasenko deal in 2023. Back then, he was basically filling Tyler Tucker’s spot in Springfield since Tucker was coming to the NHL with Niko Mikkola also traded to New York.

So I think it starts there and he played a few games as a forward in recent seasons, which isn’t always a good sign that a defenseman will make an impact in the NHL. It really didn’t dawn on me until the most recent cuts that he could be an option on the back end. I mean, he was one of the last 10 D left in camp. That’s got to count for something.

As far as the Blues go, we can see how they feel about players with their own moves. Who’s around the longest? Who’s getting certain roles within games? Who’s playing with which players? What is their usage in the AHL?

I have an old adage: players lie, coaches lie, management lies, but ice time never lies.

Matt L: Line combos for tomorrow… Snuggerud, Thomas, Buch seems like a given. Will it be Suter or Schenn between Kyrou and Holloway? I prefer Schenn there because the offensive production you get from him in that spot has been far superior to what he produces elsewhere, but I guess you could say the same thing for Suter.

Matthew DeFranks: It will be Schenn between them to start the season. The Blues spent most of camp with Suter there to see what it looked like knowing the chemistry that Holloway-Schenn-Kyrou had together a season ago.

I think it’ll change pretty often throughout the season, though. Jim Montgomery likes to change lines and likes to see different combinations, so I feel like we’ll see Holloway-Suter-Kyrou at some point this season.

simpleton: Odd to talk about next season when the current season is starting but here goes. Looking at the forwards coming up, it seems like most if not all are at best middle 6 but probably more bottom 6 (Kaskimaki, Stenberg, Peterson). I can see Dvorsky as maybe a 2c and Carbonneau as a second line wing. Other than that, hard to get super excited about what’s in the cupboard. Unless something extraordinary happens is it going to take someone from outside to take the top line to another level? (Sorry Buch, luv ya but my eyes are on your spot).

Matthew DeFranks: That’s the general knock on the Blues pipeline. Whenever I’ve talked to people that know amateur scouting or prospects, it’s always something along the lines of “A lot of guys will play in the NHL, but they’re missing stars.”

I think the Blues believe Dvorsky can be that guy. I think they believe Snuggerud that can be that guy. Carbonneau has flashed enough potential to get folks excited.

Of course, not everyone is going to pan out. It’s just the reality of prospects. But we also have to acknowledge that Dylan Holloway is 24 years old and has looked the part of a top-six forward. Jake Neighbours is 23 and can be a borderline top-six forward, but for sure middle-six guy.

Matt L: I’m wondering if anyone who had concerns about Fowler’s three year extension feels differently after seeing the 7×7 whopper that Jake Walman just got out of Edmonton. It’s going to take some getting used to seeing guys hitting 6, 7, 8 million AAV when they would have been lucky to get half that just a few years ago.

Matthew DeFranks: I honestly think that Fowler’s $6.1M cap hit was below what I expected it to be given where the cap is going. It sounds crazy for a mid-30s defenseman that was just available for almost nothing on the trade market less than a year ago.

In a few years, we’ll be seeing third-pairing defensemen making $4M or $5M, and we’ll see Fowler probably in a smaller role as he ages with a reasonable cap hit.

Sctdog: Neighbors is from the same draft class and first round as Holloway, as we expect more growth from Holloway do you anticipate much more growth from Neighbors?

Matthew DeFranks: I think we expect the growth from Holloway because we saw what happened last year when he was given more opportunity. Jake Neighbours already had that step up in opportunity in 2023-24 when he began the season on the fourth line and rose up to the first line.

I think there’s room in Neighbours’ game for more playmaking, but we know he’ll make his career as a guy scoring goals at the net-front.

Matt L: Re Colton Ellis, can you remind us of the waiver rules if Buffalo tries to send him down to the AHL? I believe that, if they try to do that and we are the ONLY team to put in a claim, then we can get him back and send him to the AHL immediately without having to send him through waivers again, correct? How long is that the case? 30 days? Rest of the season?

Matthew DeFranks: Sure, so that refers to section 13.22 of the CBA. Here’s what that says:

“13.22 When a Club claims a Player on Regular or Unconditional Waivers, and, subsequently, in the same season it requests Waivers on the same Player and the original owning Club is the successful and only Club making a Waiver claim, then the original owning Club shall be entitled to Loan such Player to a club in another league within thirty days without further Waivers being asked; provided that such Player has not participated in ten or more NHL Games (cumulative) and remained on an NHL roster more than thirty days (cumulative) following such successful claim.”

HallPlante: What are the chances that Doug Armstrong is wistful when looking at trio of Vince Dunn, Jake Walman and Niko Mikkola, all top-four dmen under age of 30?

Matthew DeFranks: I think Walman could be the only one that Armstrong thinks differently about. If I think back to the scenarios of those three departures, they’re all different, right?

Vince Dunn went in the expansion draft to Seattle in 2021. If the Blues were going to protect him, they would have exposed either Krug or Faulk, and we didn’t know back then that Krug would only play for three more years. They weren’t going to expose Parayko, and protecting four defensemen would have meant only four forwards could be protected instead of the seven they ended up protecting.

So given the situation they were in, I think they can live with the Dunn one, even if some of the decisions look bad in hindsight.

With Niko Mikkola, the Blues got what they could for him at the trade deadline because they didn’t envision a role for him. And at that time, Parayko, Leddy, Faulk and Krug were eating up the top-four minutes. They thought Tyler Tucker could take up the third pairing and penalty kill minutes vacated by Mikkola. I don’t think Mikkola becomes the player he is now if he’s still in St. Louis.

I do think that seeing what’s happened with Jake Walman in recent years has been a wild ride in asset management. When he was traded to Detroit as part of the Nick Leddy deal, it wasn’t like he needed to be traded, or there was an expansion draft. And then Detroit pays San Jose just to take him, and then the Sharks get a first rounder for him from Edmonton! Walman played 50 games in San Jose and the Sharks got a 2024 second and 2026 first for their troubles.

Matt L: Can you explain what the Blues think they see in Lucic? He had a nice career. If I was Chicago or San Jose, I might be interested in him to make teams think twice about any cheap shots on our young stars. Maybe he’s not that much slower than Faksa, but Faksa wins faceoffs which is a huge differentiator. And it appears now that he’s going to have a hard time staying healthy. Seems like there’s likely better options out there in the FA or trade market, and we have cap space if needed.

Matthew DeFranks: Here’s a bit of a spoiler, but the Net Front Presence podcast is changing since Gordo has retired. We’ll be having more interviews, and the first one was with Doug Armstrong yesterday. A lot of the conversation focused on his process of player evaluation, but we touched on training camp and the Lucic situation.

Armstrong believes that the game is getting heavier, and I think that the recent Florida/Tampa Bay games factored into his desire to have a tough guy around. He make it clear that players need to do more than fight but conceded that sometimes, “it’s nice to have the meanest guy.”

bluebass: So if Colten Ellis becomes a bona fide #1 goaltender, the Blues get nothing, correct? Seems ridiculous to punish a team for organizational depth.

Matthew DeFranks: Correct. That’s the risk of waivers, and why it’s in the CBA to protect teams from stashing NHL-caliber players in the minors.

bluebass: We only lost Dunn because Seattle double-dipped. They likely had an agreement in principle to sign Schwartz before the expansion draft so they didn’t have to use their Blues spot on him and could pick Dunn.

Matthew DeFranks: Sure, but different scenarios with Dunn in a expansion draft as an RFA and Schwartz in free agency as a UFA. I know Seattle used some picks on UFAs, like Jamie Oleksiak in Dallas, but it’s their right.

Hocko in Colorado: I was bummed to see Ellis go. I thought some day we’d see him as #2 to Hoffer with Binner being moved for prospects and cap space. Do you think that was ever going to be a possibility?

Matthew DeFranks: I think it kind of lined up that way for when Binnington became a UFA and Hofer an RFA in 2027. I don’t think it’s an accident that their contracts expire at the same time.

simpleton: Speaking of Gordo, if folks still want his snark and insight he is publishing on Substack. If you follow him on Twitter (sorry, still can’t call it X) he posts to let you know when new stories come out. Of course you can always follow him on Substack.

Matthew DeFranks: Gordoszone lives on.

HallPlante: Whatever void the Blues hope will be filled by Lucic, couldn’t they instead reach into Springfield or another AHL team to find a younger, healthier, cheaper player for such role/purpose?

Matthew DeFranks: Sure, but I think part of the calculus the Blues are making is that Lucic’s reputation on the ice still has some street cred in terms of deterring other teams more so than, say, an AHL-contracted guy like Sam Bitten.

Jimfla: Hi Matt. Happy Wednesday. Who are you thinking wins rookie of the year ? Thx

Matthew DeFranks: I’ll go with Demidov. I think he’ll have the preseason hype to go with the Montreal publicity and the role to produce numbers. But I think Jimmy Snuggerud could put forth a real argument if he sticks on the top line and top power play unit. Some numbers will be put up in those spots.

bluebass: What are the chances that Zherenko becomes the next man up in net? He wasn’t AHL-ready a couple of years ago and Ellis passed him on the ladder last year. Or does Army go shopping for a NHL backup? Buffalo waived Georgiev and are keeping their top goalie prospect in the AHL.

Matthew DeFranks: He’s going to have to be right now, but I don’t think he has long-term potential as an NHL backup. He was Hofer’s backup in the AHL, then split the net with Malcolm Subban, then lost it to Ellis.

The Blues did just sign Georgii Romanov today and placed him on waivers to add to their depth in the AHL crease.

Romanov spent the last two seasons in the San Jose organization but was not qualified this summer. He was pretty good during preseason on a PTO with New Jersey.

OneNationSTL: What is the vibe so far in the locker room? Are they loose, having fun and pumping some tunes or still T.B.D. ?

Matthew DeFranks: Training camp is always a good time as far as the mood goes. Everyone is happy, they’re ready to get the season going, no one’s lost yet and the players are tired of the media yet. It’s as loose as players get.

rabidmonkeyfish99: Since goalies seem to be like relief pitchers in that their performance often varies significantly from year to year, i find it hard to get too worked up about losing a 25 year old AHL goalie who was a non-prospect a year ago. Maybe he figured it out, but I will take the under on that.

Matthew DeFranks: That’s more than fair, I would say. Colten Ellis wasn’t going to play in the NHL for at least two more years if everything goes well for the Blues. I think it’s more that if another team thinks your player is NHL-caliber enough to claim them on waivers, why didn’t you think he was NHL ready?

I think that’s where that side of asset management from a fan’s perspective sits.

Hocko in Colorado: What, if any, options did the Blues have to protect Ellis rather than exposing him to waiver?

Matthew DeFranks: Keep him on the roster. That’s about it. In this case, they could have placed Oskar Sundqvist on IR to open a roster spot, and Torey Krug on LTIR to open cap space enough to keep Colten Ellis around.

Then in a week when Sundqvist is back, maybe they waive Ellis and Buffalo is in a different position and maybe doesn’t claim him this time?

But it’s tough because Sundqvist was hurt about 90 minutes before Ellis was put on waivers. So it’s hard to know the full extent of the injury in that quick of a timeline, and that’s even if the Blues were seriously concerned that Ellis would get claimed on waivers.

Looks like a solution in hindsight, but really hard to think that way in a tight spot Sunday.

rabidmonkeyfish99: I agree that stars typically win championships (see Colorado, Vegas, Pittsburgh, Chicago, etc), but on the flip side, stars can also disrupt a locker room (see Toronto, NYR, etc). Also, if you are a star, i think the Blues are at a disadvantage to be your preferred long-term destination (no offense meant). IMO, the Blues can acquire and/or keep stars, but it is more challenging than for a tax-free OR big market team. I would consider Tarasenko a star at his peak and that didnt play out so well at the end. How do you see this?

Matthew DeFranks: This is basically Doug Armstrong’s philosophy. He says this pretty often that the original six are preferable, and the tax-free places are preferable. So at best, the Blues are midpack in terms of attractiveness.

Then my own personal view is that you can look at warm weather places, and star-driven places (Colorado, Edmonton, etc.) and see them as desirable to go to.

So with that in mind, the Blues must draft and develop well, and do so without tanking since that was not part of the decision a few years ago.

mrr: Matthew, thanks for doing these….do Goalies develop slower than defenseman (who are slower than forwards)? I seem to remember a rookie 25 YO Binner lifting a cup…..

Matthew DeFranks: I think that’s fair to say. I also think that goalies can be good later into their careers because they get better at reading the play. I think it’s more hip and knee injuries that disrupt older goalies than underperformance.

HallPlante: Matthew: Thank you for the generous time devoted to these chats. This is part of the modern-day beat writer’s job, so hopefully the P-D is paying for your time on the clock.

Matthew DeFranks: The checks still clear.

The queue is empty now, so we’ll call it there. Have a good week and enjoy the hockey!

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