Barring something catastrophic, the Edmonton Oilers will clinch a 2025 playoff berth sometime in the next few weeks. As we anxiously await the first round, now is as good time a time as any to analyze the team’s roster and begin to discuss who should lace up their skates for the opening night of the postseason.

The locks upfront

Before delving into the numbers, it’s important to note that Connor McDavid is currently sidelined due to injury, but expected to return before the season ends. The status of Trent Frederic and Evander Kane, on the other hand, is more questionable; the former has recently been suggested as being “weeks away,” while the latter has been ramping up his fitness over the past few months and will likely join the team once the regular season is complete and the salary cap is no longer a hindrance. For the sake of this exercise. let’s assume all of the aforementioned players are available to Kris Knoblauch for Game 1. If that’s the case, here is how the core forward group shakes out (on-ice statistics are at 5v5 and courtesy of Evolving-Hockey): 

2024–25 regular season:

PlayerGPTOI/GPGAPP/GPoi GF%oi xGF%Viktor Arvidsson5814:401112230.4048.4054.57Leon Draisaitl6921:4051531041.5159.8059.73Trent Frederic5713:5087150.2640.1449.35Adam Henrique7214:251010200.2847.3944.96Zach Hyman6719:032717440.6657.6660.43Evander KaneN/AConnor McDavid6322:082664901.4351.9459.62Ryan Nugent-Hopkins7218:562028480.6750.9153.39

Career playoffs:

PlayerGPTOI/GPGAPP/GPoi GF%oi xGF%Viktor Arvidsson7217:321324370.5150.6253.40Leon Draisaitl7422:0041671081.4655.1954.49Trent Frederic2211:503250.2350.4358.83Adam Henrique4516:07911200.4467.7853.16Zach Hyman8520:093527620.7357.5955.57Evander Kane7618:182617430.5744.7249.31Connor McDavid7423:2437801171.5860.6157.31Ryan Nugent-Hopkins7420:181744610.8242.2447.52

For the most part, the Oilers fare very well here. Beyond McDavid, Draisaitl and Hyman, who need no introduction, both Arvidsson and Henrique have a solid playoff resume and will hopefully start to raise their games as the season winds down. Similarly, Frederic may also see an uptick in performance now that he will be joining a contending team.

On the flip side, two players who find themselves on the wrong side of the playoff ledger are Nugent-Hopkins and Kane. In the case of RNH, coach Knoblauch has recently suggested that he will get a long look at centre on the third line, which may help boost his underlying numbers as he faces off against lesser competition.

On the other hand, Evander Kane is a bit of a wild card; it’s hard to predict whether the Oilers will be seeing the player who led the playoffs in scoring during the 2021–22 playoffs or the one who could barely keep up with play at the tail end of last year’s run. Depending on his conditioning, Knoblauch may opt to start Kane in a lesser role and slowly work him up the lineup, in which case he may also be facing lesser competition than he has in years prior.

The other forwards

If the players listed previously are all cleared for action, the following group of forwards will be competing for the remaining ice time: Connor Brown, Mattias Janmark, Kasperi Kapanen, Corey Perry, Vasily Podkolzin and Jeff Skinner.

This gives us six forwards clawing for the final four spots. Here’s how they compare:

2024–25 regular season:

PlayerGPTOI/GPGAPP/GPoi GF%oi xGF%Connor Brown7313:39817250.3447.7751.34Mattias Janmark7113:05215170.2441.3445.37Kasperi Kapanen4811:4256110.2333.8249.01Corey Perry7211:42169250.3554.5750.82Vasiliy Podkolzin7313:01715220.3049.7958.47Jeff Skinner6312:441411250.4048.2750.42

Career playoffs:

PlayerGPTOI/GPGAPP/GPoi GF%oi xGF%Connor Brown3913:4738110.2854.3845.98Mattias Janmark9013:271221330.3747.8449.37Kasperi Kapanen3814:4359130.3440.1248.64Corey Perry18215:4848611090.6048.7050.65Vasiliy PodkolzinN/AJeff SkinnerN/A

Another forward we can quickly eliminate is Kasperi Kapanen, who has performed poorly both this season and in prior playoff runs. That leaves one of Podkolzin, Skinner, Perry, Janmark or Brown as a healthy scratch. Given Knoblauch’s treatment of Jeff Skinner earlier this season, it would have been easy to suggest he would be the other player sitting.

However, Skinner has seized opportunity in McDavid and Draisaitl’s absence, registering three goals in his last five games (not including the opening goal that was overturned a couple of nights ago against the Seattle Kraken) with an on-ice GF% of 66.67 and on-ice xGF% of 62.49 (per NST). Knoblauch has recognized this uptick in and rewarded Skinner with an increase in time on ice from approximately 12 minutes per game to 16-plus minutes per game during the recent stretch. The key for Skinner will be contributing offensively while ensuring he maintains defensive posture, so that Knoblauch has no choice but to keep him in the top-six when McDavid has returned. If he can manage that, he should be in the lineup for Game one of the playoffs.

As far as the remaining four forwards are concerned, Janmark, Podkolzin and Brown are valuable penalty-killers, while Perry impacts the game by finishing chances and outscoring his opposition in a depth role. It’s hard to say which attributes Knoblauch will prioritize come playoff time, but I suspect he may opt for situational strength and try to rekindle last year’s spark between Janmark, Henrique, and Brown. If Frederic and Kane are both back, Perry’s role as a pest diminishes greatly as well.

With these considerations in mind, I would keep Corey Perry out of the lineup on opening night and rotate him in for future games as needed.

The defence corps

Assuming everyone is healthy, the following defencemen are guaranteed to start in the playoffs: Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak, Darnell Nurse, and Jake Walman.

2024–25 regular season:

PlayerGPTOI/GPGAPP/GPoi GF%oi xGF%Evan Bouchard7323:231345580.7952.2557.14Mattias Ekholm6422:31924330.5251.2159.37Brett Kulak7320:10716230.3245.6753.75Darnell Nurse6822:15525300.4453.6652.61Jake Walman6122:51631370.6150.5048.39

Career playoffs:

PlayerGPTOI/GPGAPP/GPoi GF%oi xGF%Evan Bouchard5322:291345581.0955.8557.77Mattias Ekholm11223:421240520.4656.5653.35Brett Kulak7616:15212190.2550.9252.65Darnell Nurse7221:05417210.2946.3649.58Jake WalmanN/A

It’s hard not to be impressed by the Oilers’ backend heading into the playoffs. There’s a good mix of skill, size, speed, puck-moving, and versatility.

However, a few factors may influence how this group performs down the stretch and into the postseason. Ekholm’s health remains a crucial factor, as he has been one of the Oilers’ most valuable players since his acquisition in February 2023. Bouchard, whose performance may hinge on Ekholm’s availability, will need to focus on minimizing his lackadaisical plays and limiting high-danger chances against. Walman’s playoff readiness will be tested, as he has no prior postseason experience and may be asked to play his off-side. Finally, Nurse, now free from Cody Ceci, has no excuse not to elevate his play and solidify himself as a legitimate top-four defenceman in the postseason.

On the third pairing, Brett Kulak has more than held his own in playoffs past, which leaves a single opening for one of Ty Emberson, John Klingberg or Troy Stecher. All three players are (relatively) new additions to the Oilers; Stecher was re-signed by the team after being acquired midseason last year and subsequently buried in the lineup, Emberson was brought over in a trade which saw the Oilers relinquish Cody Ceci and a pick over the summer, and Klingberg was signed a few months ago after a year-long hiatus due to injury. Which of these players have been the best fit?

PlayerGPTOI/GPGAPP/GPoi GF%oi xGF%Ty Emberson6714:52010100.1542.6951.39John Klingberg1117:151340.3647.9948.79Troy Stecher5913:413470.1249.1046.76

Career playoffs:

PlayerGPTOI/GPGAPP/GPoi GF%oi xGF%Ty EmbersonN/AJohn Klingberg6223:01830380.6152.5051.76Troy Stecher2116:274370.3371.6644.85

Truthfully, this is close to a coin toss, and will likely be determined by who is performing at the highest level when the regular season comes to an end. Ty Emberson has done well overall when on the the third pairing, but has been struggling in recent games, perhaps due to fatigue. His drop in play has opened the door for Stecher, who has played in all of the past 11 games.

From a situational perspective, Emberson is the most useful as he forms a solid pairing with Ekholm on the penalty kill. That may be enough to give him the first crack at things, although similar to the depth forwards, I expect players to rotate games in the playoffs based on their performance.

The goaltending tandem

With Stuart Skinner leaving the game early on Wednesday night after a blow to the head from Dallas Stars’ forward Mikko Rantanen, the Oilers’ goaltending situation is currently in flux. As per Knoblauch’s most recent update, Skinner is projected to return before the season ends, but his absence provides an opportunity for Calvin Pickard to take the reigns and show what he can do with a starter’s workload. If he can perform well (early returns are looking mixed), it may open the door for an earlier debut in the playoffs.

Likewise, it will also be interesting to see how Olivier Rodrigue performs if he is awarded a starting role in any upcoming games. That being said, there is no doubt in my mind that Skinner will start Game 1 of the playoffs if he is healthy. The tandem’s stats are below (GSAx courtesy of Evolving-Hockey).

2024–25 regular season:

PlayerGPGSRecordWin % (of GS)SV%GAAGSAxCalvin Pickard302518-8-160.089.92.71-6.24Stuart Skinner494824-18-450.089.42.914.11

Career playoffs:

PlayerGPGSRecordWin % (of GS)SV%GAAGSAxCalvin Pickard321-150.091.52.211.58Stuart Skinner353519-1554.389.12.83-2.88

There’s not much to say here that hasn’t already been said. From the numbers, this is the weakest (and arguably most important) part of the Oilers’ roster. At this point, we have to hope that one of the two goaltenders gets hot and carries that momentum into the playoffs. And as fans, we should earnestly support the players who are representing our team. It’s important to remember that both players are being asked to play higher up the lineup than they should have been if things had gone well. Both players are leaving it all out on the ice, what more can we really ask of them?

Plausible playoff lineup

Putting everything together, I would currently have the following lineup for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs: 

J. Skinner – McDavid – Hyman

Frederic – Draisaitl – Kane 

Podkolzin – Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson

Janmark – Henrique – Brown 

Ekholm – Bouchard

Nurse – Walman

Kulak – Emberson

S. Skinner

Of course, things can always change and lineups will be adjusted based on the matchup, but after an up-and-down season, the Oilers should have as good of a shot as any team to make a deep run and accomplish what they fell two goals short of one year ago.

Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire

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