It was widely predicted that Shane Pinto was primed for a breakout in 2025-26, but he’s already surpassed expectations. In six games, he leads the NHL with seven goals, outscoring Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Eichel, Cole Caufield, and Leon Draisaitl. Even more impressive is that all his goals have come at even strength; of the aforementioned players, only Eichel has accomplished the same feat.
That’s great news for the Ottawa Senators, who have been struggling to start the season. Pinto has been the most effective offensive player on the team and one of the best defensive centres. The only problem is that, with his current deal expiring at the end of the season, every goal he scores raises his eventual price tag, and that’s going to be a challenge for the Senators to accommodate.
With around $3.6 million currently in cap space, the Senators are going to have to make some difficult decisions if they want to re-sign Pinto, such as choosing to let some skilled veterans or talented youngsters walk to free agency. But, if the Senators want to keep Pinto long-term, and all indications indicate that they do, then that might force Ottawa to make some difficult decisions later.
What Will Pinto’s Deal Cost?
On Oct 18, Elliotte Friedman reported that the Senators had offered Pinto an eight-year deal, and although no monetary amount was revealed, it was a move to prove to Pinto’s camp that the team was serious about keeping him around. But what will it cost to sign him to that deal?
It’s almost guaranteed that Pinto will regress from his current production. Ahead of the Senators’ game against the Edmonton Oilers, the Senators’ young centre is on pace to score 96 goals and 110 points, which would make him the greatest goal scorer in NHL history. That unbelievable pace is supported by an incredible shooting percentage (SH%) of 33%, which already dropped from 57.1% after week one. Keeping that up over an 82-game pace is virtually impossible. Last season, Brayden Point led the league among players with at least 70 games played with a 22.2 SH%, and only 12 players broke the 20% threshold.
Shane Pinto, Ottawa Senators (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)
Pinto’s average number of shots per game is also high, but not too far above some of the best high-volume shooters in the NHL. So far, he’s averaging 3.5 shots per game, just above Draisaitl’s 2024-25 average of 3.4. That’s a more sustainable pace, and if he keeps up that volume and regresses to his 16.5 SH% from 2024-25, he’s still on pace to hit 47 goals. That’s not an impossible tally, even though only Draisaitl scored more than that last season. However, 30 goals seem like a given at this point.
Now, no one is arguing that Pinto should be making the same as Draisaitl’s league-leading $14 million per season, but he’s certainly been more valuable than Dylan Cozens, the Senators’ second-line centre, who makes $7.1 million per season. Sportsnet’s Alex Adams suggests going even higher than that, arguing that, with the salary cap expected to go up to $104 million next season, the Senators could afford to give him $7.5-$8.5 million over an eight-year deal. That could be a bargain of a contract for one of the NHL’s best young defensive forwards as the cap continues to rise, like Brady Tkachuk and Jake Sanderson’s deals.
Pinto’s Contract Could Create Cap Issues Later
While getting Pinto under an eight-year deal valued at around $8 million might make sense in the long run, it will create a much tighter budget for the next few seasons, even if the salary cap goes up by the expected amount.
As of publication, the Senators have committed about $91 million to their roster before dealing with their expiring contracts. If everyone is re-signed to the same deal, next season’s team would have around $95.55 million, which gives Ottawa over $9 million in cap space. But, just like Pinto’s scoring pace, that’s an unrealistic expectation. It’s more likely that the Senators have around $5.5 million in cap space if they keep the same roster, and more likely to be lower, with other players looking to cash in on the rising salary cap.
Related: Senators’ Shane Pinto Primed for a Big Breakout in 2025-26
Those decisions will impact how much the Senators can spend on Drake Batherson and Artem Zub, both of whom need new deals in 2027-28 and should expect significant raises on their current $4.6 and $4.975 million deals, respectively. Batherson has proven himself to be part of the team’s core, and so far, that means another $8 million deal. Zub has also been strong and will likely look for around $6 million. With an extra $10 million in cap space, the Senators can probably fit in both contracts, but once again, they won’t have a lot of room to play with afterwards.
That problem is only amplified in 2028-29, when Tkachuk will need a raise on his team-leading $8.35 million. There’s no way that the Senators will risk him going to free agency, but there’s also no way that Tkachuk will take anything less than $10 million, especially with a higher cap ceiling. Tkachuk may look for a $12 million or more contract to stick around, so the Senators need to be ready to make sure that the heart of their team remains in Ottawa.
Tkachuk won’t be the only concern, though. There’s also Carter Yakemchuk, who will need to sign a deal in 2027-28, and Logan Hensler, who will need an entry-level deal before the same season ends. Stephen Halliday, Blake Montgomery, Javon Moore, Lucas Ellinas, Oskar Pettersson, Jorian Donovan, Tomas Hamara, and others. Sure, maybe none of those players end up as stars, but they’ve all shown promise as NHL players, and they’ll need some sort of contract in the coming years. It also might mean that fringe prospects like Filip Nordberg or Tyson Dyck won’t earn entry-level deals this season. They won’t be expensive, but every dollar counts when you’re up against the cap.
There’s good reason to buy high on Pinto now, but that will have cascading effects throughout the franchise. If the Senators overpay now on Pinto, they’ll have to find ways to save money on Batherson and Zub, or else keeping their team captain will be much more difficult. It’s a domino effect that all starts with Pinto’s contract this season.
