Columbus Blue Jackets getting reinforcements vs New York Islanders
Sean Monahan and Erik Gudbranson will return to the Blue Jackets’ lineup Monday against the Islanders hoping to end a six-game skid
After ending a six-game winless skid Monday with a thrilling 4-3 shootout win over the New York Islanders at UBS Arena, the Blue Jackets breathed new life into their playoff chances with 12 games left.
Their odds of qualifying for a playoff spot might’ve plummeted since March 1, when the Jackets seized control of the first wild card in the Eastern Conference with a win over the Detroit Red Wings at Ohio Stadium, but they’ve nearly doubled since Monday.
MoneyPuck, DraftKings and FanDuel have adjusted percentages and betting odds in the Blue Jackets’ favor following the victory over the Islanders followed by losses Tuesday and Wednesday by their closest competitors for the East’s second wild card.
Prior to that victory, which required the Blue Jackets get the game to overtime on a controversial goaltender interference call, they’d won just one of nine games following the NHL Stadium Series victory. Sean Monahan and Erik Gudbranson returned to the lineup against the Isles following long-term injuries, and the Blue Jackets have two more lineup pieces — center Cole Sillinger and defenseman Jake Christiansen — ready to return if called upon Friday against the Vancouver Canucks.
They’ll help Blue Jackets (32-29-9, 73 points) match up against the Canucks, who did them a huge favor with a 5-2 victory against the Islanders on Wednesday in New York. The Canucks (34-26-12, 80 points) are chasing the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference, three points behind the St. Louis Blues and five points back of the Minnesota Wild for the first wild card.
It’s also a tight race in the East, where Columbus is among a five-team race for the second wild-card spot that includes the Red Wings (33-32-6, 72 points), Blue Jackets (32-29-9, 73 points), New York Rangers (34-32-6, 74 points), Islanders (32-29-10, 74 points) and Montreal Canadiens (33-28-9), who currently control the conference’s coveted final playoff slot.
Columbus Blue Jackets‘ odds of qualifying for the playoffs drop again
The Athletic used a predictive stat-based model in October to project the Blue Jackets with a 0.3% chance of qualifying for the playoffs and finishing with 69 points — 68.6 to be exact. Going into a back-to-back set against the Canucks on Friday and Ottawa Senators on Saturday in Kanata, Ontario, the Jackets have already exceeded those expectations with 73 points in 70 games to remain in the playoff hunt.
That’s the bright side. Those who forecast NHL games and generate betting odds have a more pessimistic outlook, but it has also improved since the Jackets’ win Monday.
DraftKings and BetMGM now list the Jackets’ odds of qualifying for the postseason at +350 to make it, a jump from +600 before Monday’s victory, and -450 to miss. That second number was -900 to miss starting the week. FanDuel started the week with +680 for Columbus to qualify and -1400 to miss, which has since improved to +350 to make it and -520 to miss out.
According to MoneyPuck, which uses percentages, the Blue Jackets’ win in New York upped their odds of qualifying for the playoff from 6.3% Monday to 13.8% waking up for practice Thursday. They increased their chance of earning the Eastern Conference’s second wild-card spot from 4.5% to 10.5%, while improving their chances from 0.6% to 1.6% of landing the East’s first wild card.
The Blue Jackets’ chances of finishing third in the Metropolitan Division also increased from 1.1% Monday to 1.7% Thursday.
How does the NHL determine its opening playoff field?
Conference standings: The top eight teams in the NHL’s Eastern and Western conferences earn playoff spots. The Blue Jackets are likely vying for the East’s second wild card.
Playoff cutoff: The cutoff mark going into games Thursday is 75 points for the Canadiens, who currently reside in that wild-card spot with the same number of games remaining (12) as Columbus. The Blue Jackets are 11th in the conference at 73 points, and the Islanders, Rangers and Canadiens all hold standings tiebreakers over them in regulation wins. Columbus is also being pursued by the Red Wings (72 points), Boston Bruins (69 points) and Penguins (69 points).
Columbus Blue Jackets playoff outlook
Remaining points possible: The Blue Jackets can earn up to 24 more points in their remaining 12 games. Using their .521 points percentage, their season total would climb to 85 points at the end of an 82-game season.Â
That’s probably not enough to earn a playoff spot, but it’s possible given the logjam of teams so closely grouped while chasing the East’s second wild card. The Jackets probably need 90-plus points, which they can reach by igniting a hot streak.
Here is how the Columbus Blue Jackets have fared recently
Last 10 Games: The Blue Jackets are 2-7-1 in their last 10 games.
Notable wins/losses: Winning four straight games after the NHL’s pause for the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament in February was a high point that included the Jackets’ exciting 5-3 victory over the Red Wings at Ohio Stadium. They also looked great routing the New York Rangers 7-3 on March 9 at Madison Square Garden in New York and got a needed boost Monday against the Isles.
Dropping consecutive games to the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers to open a four-game trip that followed the March 1 outdoor win over Detroit began a troubling stretch where they lost eight of nine that included six straight defeats prior to edging the Islanders.
Columbus Blue Jackets upcoming schedule
Here are the Blue Jackets’ remaining games in March with start time and TV/radio broadcast information:
Friday, March 28 — Vancouver Canucks (29-24-11), 7 p.m. FanDuel Sports Network/97.1 FM The Fan Saturday, March 29 — At Ottawa Senators (34-25-5), 7 p.m. FanDuel Sports Network/97.1 FM The FanColumbus Blue Jackets home/road splits
The Blue Jackets have struggled all season on the road. Their splits between home and road games are striking, and they’ve dropped their past four in a row at home:Â
Home Record: 20-9-5 (45 points)Â
Away Record: 12-20-4 (28 points)
Summary: Teams that make the playoffs almost always break even on the road and make hay at home. The Blue Jackets had the home success part before their current skid, but haven’t fully shaken their road woes.
Columbus Blue Jackets key players
The top scoring leaders for the Blue Jackets are:
D Zach Werenski — 20 goals, 49 assists, 69 points RW Kirill Marchenko — 26 goals, 37 assists, 63 points F Kent Johnson — 22 goals, 24 assists, 46 points C Adam Fantilli — 22 goals, 21 assists, 43 pointC Sean Monahan — 14 goals, 29 assists, 43 pointsLW Dmitri Voronkov — 20 goals, 22 assists, 42 pointsÂ
Breakdown: These six are critical to the Blue Jackets’ playoff hopes, and Monahan’s two-assist return from injury Monday against the Islanders was a welcome sight. The Jackets are still missing Sillinger, but he could play Friday for the first time since injuring a shoulder Feb. 28 in Detroit.
Here’s a look at the Blue Jackets’ top goalies:Â
No. 1 starter — Elvis Merzlikins is 23-19-5 with a 3.03 goals against average (GAA), .896 save percentage (SV%) and one shutout.Â
Backup — Danill Tarasov is 7-8-2 with a 3.51 GAA, .882 SV% and one shutout.
Breakdown: After struggling with consistency, Merzlikins has provided solid goaltending. He was the main reason the Blue Jackets took a game against the Florida Panthers last week to overtime tied 0-0 prior to a 1-0 OT loss, and Merzlikins was solid against the Islanders too. Tarasov has also rebounded from a slump in the season’s first half to provide a dependable backup option.
Blue Jackets reporter Brian Hedger can be reached at bhedger@dispatch.com and @BrianHedger.bsky.social
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